On Wed, 10 Dec 2003, N2EY wrote:
"Bill Sohl" wrote in message link.net...
The calendar year 2004 has a considerable
amount of expirations...well above a normal
distribution which would have been about 1/10th
of existing hams...or about 63K.

Don't you mean "about 68K", Bill?

More like 73K....

The actual future expiratons data from the Joe
Speroni web site is over 84K expirations
with two months showing very high numbers...
almost 11K in May and over 17K in July.

Didn't FCC change the vanity call rules right about then? If so, it
would explain the spike because getting a vanity call causes an
automatic renewal regardless of the 90 day rule (so FCC doesn't have
to pro-rate the fee, IIUC)

That's going to be the 2006 problem.

Will be interesting to watch the renewal results.

Yep!

Further clouded by the 90 days before/2 years after rules. If someone
is a little late renewing, they show up as an expiration.

What's more interesting is the count of those whose licenses expire WITHOUT them
also having expired (i.e. those who DON'T renew, as opposed to those who can't).