On Sun, 22 May 2005 17:08:37 -0700, John Smith wrote:
: You ask me "what is wrong with cw?" I ask you, "Why is amateur radio
: dying?"--I think the answer to both is a single one--there was a time when

Difficult premise, coupled with a fuzzy definition. What does "dying"
mean to you? If you're going to assert that amateur radio is dying,
then you need to come up with a working definition of "dying" so that
others can decide if you're right.

My problem is that, when I review the statistics, there isn't any such
process which can be clearly identified. True, over the very recent
past the total number of licenses has declined, but that decline is on
the order of 2% since April, 2004. If the baseline is made longer,
and totals going back to 1995 are examined, a 2% change in the total
amateur population is seen to lie well within the noise (two year
variance). It is therefore difficult to decide if it is significant
without resorting to a detailed statistical analysis.

My sense is that it isn't significant (yet). It looks as though the
trend line (least-squares, linear fit) is horizontal, and only
additional time will tell if it really has a negative slope.

To reiterate, those who run around claiming that "amateur radio is
dying" can't seem to either articulate what "dying" means or to prove
their case.

And as the old Shania Twain song says, "That don't impress me much."