Is Defeat Now an Option?
by Patrick J. Buchanan (Nov. 28, 2005)

"Is the United States now going to cut and run in Iraq?" asks Bronwen
Maddox, foreign editor of the London Times.

While the answer from President Bush remains a defiant "No!" the question is
now being raised by the most hawkish of his backers. And understandably so.
For John McCain's call for sending 10,000 more troops to Iraq has been met
with polite silence, while all signals out of this city point to withdrawal,
beginning in 2006, of scores of thousands of U.S. troops, whether the
insurgency has been defeated or not, whether an Iraqi democracy is assured
or not.

Consider these events of Thanksgiving week:

On Sunday, Nov. 20, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld confirmed that Gen.
George Casey, U.S. commander in Iraq, had submitted plans for a reduction of
U.S. forces from the present 160,000 to fewer than 100,000 by the end of
2006. When asked if that was possible, Rumsfeld, replied, "Yes, that's
possible."

On Monday, 100 Sunni, Shia, and Kurd leaders from Iraq met in Cairo and
called for a timetable for U.S. withdrawal.

Wednesday, the Washington Post led the paper with a story on Casey's plan to
withdraw the 60,000, and Secretary of State Condi Rice told Fox News we need
not maintain present troop levels "very much longer," as Iraqi forces, which
now number 200,000, are "stepping up" to the job. A gradual pullout could
"come fairly soon," said Rice, the number of troops "is clearly going to
come down." She added, "I think that is how the president will want to look
at this."

By Thursday, the Pentagon confirmed that troops would be coming home after
the December elections and, if conditions improve, U.S. forces could be
drawn down by 60,000 before the end of 2006. Said Fred Barnes of the hawkish
Weekly Standard, "These events are ominous . they suggest that troop removal
has superseded victory as the primary American concern." Indeed, they do.

Moreover, our principal coalition partners after the Brits are coming out.
Silvio Berlusconi has said Italy's 3,000 troops may be home by the end of
2006. South Korea is pulling out a third of its contingent. Polish forces,
cut from 2,400 to 1,400 in 2005, may soon fall below 1,000.

If no more troops are going in, and the only question is, how many U.S. and
coalition troops are coming out, starting after the December elections, the
conclusion seems inescapable: The United States is disengaging from the Iraq
war before victory is at hand, or even in sight. Hence, a defeat, not of
American arms, but of the U.S. policy in Iraq, is now a distinct
possibility.

The signs America has had enough are everywhere. Bill Clinton now calls the
war a "big mistake," an opinion shared by 60 percent of the nation.
Thirty-nine Senate Democrats voted for an exit strategy, with timetables.
Half the country wants withdrawals to begin. Only a third of the nation
approves of Bush's war leadership, while 42 percent, in a Pew poll, want
America to start minding her own business.

Bush has three years left, but the time is approaching when debate on a new
U.S. foreign policy for the post-Bush era must begin. One lesson from this
war is already clear: Americans will not long support spilling the blood of
their soldier sons in a war for ideals like democracy in the Arab world
unless they are convinced national security or U.S. vital interests are
imperiled.

Months back, as opponents of the war became the majority, I predicted a Gene
McCarthy would rise to lead the antiwar movement. No one expected it to be
Rep. John Murtha, a combat veteran with 37 years in Marine Corps service.
But Murtha's emotional call for withdrawal has proven a catalyst for
Congress and the country.

The argument suddenly seems over and the nation appears to have reached a
consensus: earliest possible withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, consistent
with the avoidance of a strategic disaster.

But here is the rub: We are not going to get out of Iraq without suffering
terrible consequences for having gone in. And when we come out, we no longer
control what goes on within.

Once we depart, there is no guarantee the insurgents will be defeated, no
guarantee that thousands of those who cast their lot with us will not be
massacred, no guarantee Iraq will remain one nation, no guarantee there will
not be chaos and civil war.

There is no guarantee that after having invested $200 to $300 billion and
the lives of thousands of splendid young Americans, we will not end up with
an Iraq that is a strategic ally of Iran and a Sunni Triangle that is a base
camp and training camp for terrorists larger than the one we destroyed in
Afghanistan.

The impending U.S. troop withdrawals are a roll of the dice, demanded by the
American people and now acceded to by the Bush administration. No one can
know for sure what the dice will deliver.

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