From: John Smith I on Sat, Dec 30 2006 9:42 pm

Dee Flint wrote:
...
But do you wish to submit a guess?

Dee, N8UZE

Guess? No. Logic? Yes.

There will be a lag in new membership, perhaps numbers will begin a slow
growth--perhaps a rapid jump then a slowing off--hard to tell ...

Everyone doing the guessing is working with OLD paradigms.
There's NEVER been a time when there was NO code test, at
least since 1934. Nobody's been exposed to that kind of
environment/situation...all they've got is the old times
when there was ALWAYS a code test.

Then, all of a sudden, some magazine, or some group like MENSA will pick
it up, or the college crowd will accept it as "being hip", etc., etc.,
anyway, it will catch on--trendy to be a ham. There will be some new
technology which finally begins to trickle into amateur radio and new
designs in the stagnated equipment; then all of a sudden it will spring
full-blown into "being vogue."

That's entirely possible but I'd say Unlikely with a
capital U. Just too many old farts ready to jump in
with the standard "they 'know' what is good for ham
radio!" AS IF. :-) [if they 'already knew' why
didn't they DO something about it?]

But, but, but, the NEW DESIGNS in "stagnated equipment"
have ALREADY HAPPENED, beginning between 30 and 20 years
ago. ALL by manufacturers, generally off-shore...by
Yaesu, Kenwood, Icom, JRC. Ten-Tec is struggling to stay
in the market (they are a USA company) but isn't achieving
market dominance at all. Note: W1AW uses Harris
transmitters (a pro user market dominant company).

All them handheld VHF and above radios for the US ham
market were pioneered for commercial and military users,
not hams. [this newsgroup doesn't have regulars who
bother with the world above 30 MHz so they are unfamiliar
with it] [maybe Hans Brakob does...but Hans hasn't been
around much in the last year]

Who knows how, when or where--the important thing is the door now has
been breached. The dead hams fingers have been torn from their death
grips on the hobby. Now, IT CAN HAPPEN!

I'll go with that...but it's been a bit late. When one
American in three had a cellphone subscription (two years
ago according to the Bureau of Census) it is UNlikely
that morsemanship on HF to "talk to foreign lands" is
going to be some catchy, with-it motivation. Ordinary
folk can just dial direct on the telephone system at
lesser cost than paying $2K for a "free" ham station.

We all can help, but who can say who will finally be recognized as the
trigger ...

An ACTOR could begin the publicity. Imagine...a HAM ACTOR!
I can see the ARRL news headlines now...BSEG

Of course, the L.A. area is rather FULL of "ham actors"
who only need AMPAS and SAG "licenses" (actually registry)
to do their "ham" thing. :-)

"There's no business like show business..." :-)

Regards,
LA