Is This The Breakout Year For FM Talk?
A message from Radio Ink Publisher Eric Rhoads

Pioneers are the people with arrows in their backs. Talk radio pioneer
Walter Sabo told me more than 15 years ago that FM talk would become a
hot format, but it was a tough sell. He suffered a lot of criticism
and resistance because companies that owned big talk stations didn't
want to cannibalize their successful AMs. After all, AM had been dead
for years until it was born again with talk radio. Sabo's vision from
back then has yet to come to full fruition -- but it may be just
around the corner. Here's why:

There is a 50-50 chance radio will lose the performance fee issue this
year or next and will have to pay some percentage of revenues to
record labels. With the current state of radio, taking dollars off the
top line may be economically impractical, especially if the rates are
as far out of line as some anticipate. Music radio could become a
shadow of its former self, and we may see a proliferation of FM-based
talk formats. Though there will likely be multiple traditional talk
outlets doing politics, I believe a new breed of FM talkers will
succeed by offering variations on talk lifestyle formats with younger
demographic targets.

Because many believe they see this coming, there will be companies,
perhaps those with less successful music stations, that will want to
establish a beachhead now, before everyone comes to the realization
that music formats will be less profitable.

The generation that grew up with music on FM is now favoring talk
programming, and the generation behind them is entering the age when
talk becomes more interesting. Younger, hipper FM-talk presentations
like "real radio" and new variations for younger audiences will be
embraced in every market. And with PPM results showing how much
listenership National Public Radio is taking, it's clear that a large
chunk of all listening is talk-based. Commercial radio will begin to
engage strategies to take those audiences away from NPR.

According to BIA, in 16 of the 20 top U.S. radio markets, lower-ranked
AM talk formats generated more revenue than higher-ranked FM music
formats. Meanwhile, Arbitron says the combined spoken-word formats --
news, talk, sports -- add up to the most most-listened-to format in
the country, comprising 17.5 percent of radio listening.

But 80 percent of all radio listening takes place on FM. So imagine
what could happen to talk stations on FM. If the total of all the talk
in your market is a combined 10 share or less, there is an average of
seven points to be gained by an FM talker.

Of course, the talk format has more available inventory before it's
not considered annoying. Music stations may find they need to reduce
inventory in order to compete. And in almost all markets where an FM
talker competes with an AM talker, the FM is outperforming the AM.
Typically, there are multiple choices for similar music formats, which
further dilutes opportunity. But FM talk takes over in most of its
markets rapidly, often within one or two rating periods.

For those of you who fear that putting on an FM talk station could
cannibalize your AM talker, the evidence is to the contrary,
especially if you're doing a talk format designed for FM. For
instance, when Walter Sabo launched WTKS, it took no audience from
traditional AM talker WDBO and shared no cume. Most of its cume is
shared with the alternative rocker in the market and with WOCL and,
formerly, with WMMO. The same held true at NJ 101.5, which shared
audience with classic rocker WAXQ-FM.

If I were a betting man, I'd bet that spoken word, which saved AM
radio, may in fact be the format that soars on FM in every market. New
iterations of talk will emerge as this soon-to-occur phenomenon takes
radio by storm. Can you say "opportunity"?

Eric Rhoads
www.radioink.com

Fm music-oriented stations will die - AM news/talks/sports rule! Hear
these words:

"According to BIA, in 16 of the 20 top U.S. radio markets, lower-
ranked AM talk formats generated more revenue than higher-ranked FM
music formats. Meanwhile, Arbitron says the combined spoken-word
formats -- news, talk, sports -- add up to the most most-listened-to
format in the country, comprising 17.5 percent of radio listening."

You are provd full-of-**** once again - LOL! HD Radio is dead!