wrote on Fri, 20 Apr 2007 18:00:34 EDT:

Are we in danger of being the last generation of hams?

I'd say no. At my test session of 25 Feb 07 there were at
least two teen-agers applying for an amateur radio license.
Given that I was born before the FCC was created, the "last"
generation would be at least three before me... :-)

(And if we are, what can we do to eliminate that danger?)

What "danger?" I see none. But more on that later.

First, a disclaimer. I'm into my fifth decade of being a licensed
amateur, and figure I'm good for 3 or 4 more sunspot cycles of fun. I
love amateur radio.

Well, I've been a licensed commercial radio operator since
1956 and a licensed radio amateur since 2007. It has, in
between getting a whole new station set up, been fun.

I can't presume to guess how many sun cycles I'll have and
I don't lose sleep over it. So far, I love my wife, but
sincerely doubt I would ever love any radios like that.

But I worry sometimes.

Our service will only continue to exist so long as the majority of the
worlds national governments believe that we bring value to the public
in exchange for the incredibly valuable RF spectrum that is entrusted
to our use.

I would suggest rewording that to say "bring value to the
citizens [of various nations] in terms of their enjoyment
and well-being" or something like that. I don't see that an
"exchange" of anything is necessary or warranted.

Pulling out the Red Book (NTIA) or the big chart in Part 2,
Title 47 C.F.R. on which radio service gets what in the EM
spectrum, we can find some items for USA citizens that
appear to have no intrinsic value whatsoever:

1. 30 KHz bandspace absolutely license free at 160 - 190 KHz.
Been there a long time in regulations, sees little use.

2. 400 KHz bandspace for CB (40 channels at "11m") for nothing
but Personal Communications. No license required. Heavily
used on highways, all states.

3. 1.6 MHz (!) bandspace at 72 to 73, 75.4 to 76 MHz, 80
channels for nothing but model air and surface radio
control. No license required. A very fun hobby.

4. There's more, also regulated by Part 95, Title 47 C.F.R.,
such as Family Radio Service unlicensed transceivers, but
you get the picture, I'm sure.

5. I'm not even counting the RF emitters of very short range
such as the Keyless Auto Entry transmitters (millions) or
the Bluetooth earpieces (look, ma, no wires to my cellphone),
the tens of thousands of Wireless LANs that have invaded
residences, the "WiFi" links of Internet to PCs, or other
RF emitters that make our lives easier now, replacing hard
wired or mechanical functions done previously.

All of the above services to citizens which could be categorized
as "unessential" services since they don't immediately secure
their absolute safety or insure their well-being. The above are
available in nearly all countries although their authorized
frequencies may vary due to their adminstrations' regulations.
Items (2) through (5) came into being within the last two decades
or so.

The model radio control bandspace is only 100 KHz narrower than
the worldwide 10m amateur band. Model radio control is pure
hobby-amusement and no modeler (that I've heard/seen) makes any
claims of supplanting vehicles in case of disaster or emergency,
nor is that hobby claimed to be a starting point for any
life-long career in using/designing vehicles, boats, or
aircraft.

I think if the members of ITU collectively asked "Are the hams of the
world doing anything which justifies their generous chunks assigned
spectrum?" the honest answer would be "Probably not."

I will ask "which chunks in what spectrum?" Hams of the HF
persuasion are one group, the "VHF-ers" (and up) are the other.
HF has been relatively static in change for at least two
decades, and decreased prior to that with many communications
services formerly on HF migrating to satellite relay.

The last HF amateur band worldwide use allocation happened in
1979 from the World Administrative Radio Conference and those
new bands are dubbed "WARC" for short by hams. 1979 was 28
years ago and there doesn't appear to be any new users begging
for HF bandspace. The new "channels" at 60m were assigned by
the FCC for amateur use based largely on ARRL lobbying, on the
basis of some kind of necessity of equatorial communications
for [hurricane] disasters. The lobbying does not, to me at
least, seem to take into account what the equatorial nations
have done or not done for their communications. Regardless,
the added amateur bandspace was just a few slivers.

In the world above 30 MHz it is a whole new ballgame. Demands
by business and governments up there are great. Nearly all of
the US government's "auction" monies on new service providers
come from there. The FCC's HDTV channel frequency reallocation
plan has resulted in hundreds of MHz of new bandspace for new
radio services, nearly all allocated under auction. Maybe there
was some effort of amateurs to secure a little bit of the "700
MHz" vicinity openings for hams but I can't recall seeing any.
But, the World Above 30 MHz is largely Line of Sight in use.
The only real crowding of those bands occurs in big urban
areas. There doesn't seem to be a Big Need for bandspace
above 30 MHz for US radio amateurs.

What are we going to do about that?

Speaking from 54 years from my first HF radio experience to
becoming a new amateur nearly two months ago and observing
EM spectrum use while working in industry in all the time
in between, I would say "don't take yourselves so seriously
within your radio service!" Amateur radio is a hobby, a fun
hobby. If other countries' hobbyists can enjoy some chunks
of EM spectrum just for hobbyist fun, then why can't the USA?

As to this whole claim of being a backup communications
provider when the infrasture fails in disasters, I have to
say show me in a detailed report where it was essential.
Having been required to design electronics for terrible
environments, I know that amateur radio equipment isn't
going to survive better than the infrastructures' gear.
[see May QST for one piece of equipment that didn't survive
Katrina...lost with one amateur's entire station]

The Public Safety Radio Services have their radios now and
use them every day. NOAA has its weather observation
services plus satellite downlinks. Harbor and inland
waterways have their radio services and plans for
emergencies there. The FAA routinely handles aircraft
emergencies every week with the aid of radio. Believe it
or not, the telephony infrastructure can come back to life
when its subscribers stop all trying to use their
switching system all at once; they've had battery backup in
central offices for more than half a century. Truckers
daily help fellow motorists on highways, sometimes alerted
over their CBs. Yes, amateur radio CAN be a help in
emergencies just as ALL citizens can be a help, with or
without any license for anything.

There hasn't been any need for trained morse code operators
for over a decade for any WWII-era "pool" to help the
nation. With anything in radio. The miliaries do adequate
training of their members, government radio with theirs.
I'd say the salient feature of amateur radio is its ability
to introduce newcomers to a fascinating technologically-
heavy activity...somethine they can have fun with while
learning. For youngsters it MIGHT be a starting point for
their eventual working careers. For adults and older folks
it can be just fun in itself. There's seemingly some
puritanical echoes in the general repeated "reasons" for
being IN amateur radio...those leave out the FUN element.
I see that as a liability to ham radio promotion,
diametrically opposite to being an asset. Is having fun
so terrible? Especially having fun while learning a new
technology (for newcomers) or new application (for those
already experienced)?

Recreation IS, to my mind, an asset for all. It diverts
our stresses from making a living, eases tensions, makes
a life experience more enjoyable. If that recreation can
also increase individuals' intellectual capacity, I say "so
much the better!" Maybe I'm biased having been IN the
electronics industry so long (sans 'benefit' of ham
license) and maybe because I happen to like the fascinating
technology enough that I liked most of my work. It has
been a great, stimulating trip for me and it is still
happening. It could be for others, too, those who look
forward instead of backward to what was, a was that will
never be again.

73, Len AF6AY