Steve Bonine wrote on Sat, 21 Apr 2007 09:19:50 EDT:

wrote:
I think if the members of ITU collectively asked "Are the hams of the
world doing anything which justifies their generous chunks assigned
spectrum?" the honest answer would be "Probably not."

What are we going to do about that?

I'm frankly more concerned about the people aspect of this issue than
the spectrum issue.

That's a very valid concern and goes to the core of present-
day amateur radio activity.

As others in the thread have pointed out, HF spectrum is not
particularly valuable these days. I don't think we're in any huge
danger of losing those allocations. Even VHF and the lower end of UHF
aren't as sought-after as they once were.

True enough at the regulatory level.

The thing that bothers me is the decline in the number of active ham
radio operators. Ham radio as a hobby has many aspects, but most of
them involve collaboration with other people, either on the air or
otherwise. As the number of people declines, the potential for the
hobby as a whole declines.

Our entire USA society has far more available recreational
pursuits now than a half century ago when I was a young adult.
That affects every recreational activity, not just amateur
radio. It is also quite normal in human society.

On the other hand, the newcomers to amateur radio are, just
barely, keeping pace with the number of licensee expirations.
That has been going on for four years since the peak of 2003.
Further, newcomers have been entering the ham world above 30
MHz, a region quite different from the older, established HF
world.

Communication is a common desire in all human groupings. In
all forms. In 2004 the US Bureau of the Census reported that
one out of three Americans had a cell phone subscription. Not
bad for a public service that, 20 years ago, barely had enough
users to be worth a poll-taking effort. The Census Bureau also
said that one in five American households had some form of
Internet access; the Internet went public in 1991, just 16
years ago. Internet access is not possible without some form
of personal computer which, a quarter century ago, were things
only for computer hobbyists. We all have had wired telephone
service all our lives yet that didn't exist two centuries ago.
We have, nearly everywhere, more TV channels for news as well
as entertainment now than the TV Boom times of the 1950s. We
have the CDs for music, video, and personal data such as
photos (instant digital, no going to "have them developed").
We have boom boxes, IPods, and broadcast receivers built into
headsets. We are almost awash with individual information
and entertainment input. :-)

Considering all of the above, I was a bit surprised to see
so many folks younger than I (almost everyone is) in the 20
or so at my amateur radio test session of 25 Feb 07. There
were about 10 more in the beginning but those were doing
adminstrative changes or changing from Tech Plus to Tech,
clearing the room for the actual testing.

I live in a rural area, so I see this trend more than those of you in
densely-populated areas. Our local club is teetering on the edge of
extinction, and the people who are involved tend not to be much
interested in radio -- they care more about the social aspects of
drinking coffee with their buddies. When it's time to mount some kind
of local effort, be it Skywarn, Field Day, or even the annual picnic,
it's harder and harder to attract a critical mass of people to participate.

That is common in human groupings. Clubs are essentially
fraternal orders, though usually on a smaller scale. Some
were formed for a specific purpose, not necessarily for the
entirety of all amateur radio activities.

Clubs about specific activites will, over time, morph into
reflections of those in the club who wish to lead more than
be enthused about an activity per se. That is normal also.
Depending on the type of leadership, a club may or may not
be "good" for that activity. Unfortunately, quantification
of "good" tends to be subjective to every interpreter of it.


I suspect that my view is atypical, but I don't know if it's atypical
because it forecasts what's in store for ham radio as a hobby, or
atypical because it's not seeing the positive aspects like young people
entering the hobby. But the future of the hobby depends on *people*.

Absolutely depends on people. My issue with "my" national
organization is that they pay too much attention on extremes,
the long-timers and the newcomers. They almost ignore the
huge demographic grouping in the middle. They have made very
little attempt to recruit membership of the huge license
class (the biggest for years, without doubt) who were
restricted to the spectrum above 30 MHz in the USA. The
continuing emphasis in activities have been on "the bands"
referring to HF, the old ways of the hobby. That went, in
my view, from "gentrification" to "stratification." That
reflects downward to the local club level.

I'm all for "young people" entering amateur radio. But that
is not the only demographic source of newcomers. An objective
examination would show that "young people" are the most-
influenced by peer pressure and the tremendous entertainment
resources available to them now. Largely ignored is the
twenty- and thirty-somethings who have started to stabilize
in their life experience, have reached an economic level where
they can afford a hobby and have some leisure time available.

I've always heard the carbon-copy stories that described teen
"discoveries" of radio and that becoming their lifelong
passion. It was never in regulations that one had to be a
teen-ager to begin in amateur radio, nor any life oath of
obeisance to amateur radio had to be sworn. On closer
scrutiny, most of those teeners were such 40 to 30 years ago.
Times and our society have changed but most such story-
tellers seem to be unchanged.

... To me, the goal is to recruit young
folks into the hobby and to actually involve them so that they're active
hams instead of numbers in a listing.

That's an excellent beginning.

A caveat: If they are active, the activity does not have to
be activity of the mode of 30 to 50 years ago. Newcomers will
find their own way to their own desires of activity...just like
old-timers did a long time ago for their desires.

Newcomers are PEOPLE. They are not "recruits" (a la military)
who must be indoctrinated almost forcibly into certain ways.
While that is almost done in some clubs, it has a negative
effect and the newcomers tend to say/think unprintable words
to would-be leaders and drop out of the hobby in disgust.

Newcomers to the hobby don't all accept the "territorial
imperative" of the long-timer who continually implies "THIS
is how WE do it in ham radio." Newcomers can become familiar
quickly enough with accepted formality and self-styled "radio
cops" aren't needed on the air. Neither should there be a
continual expressed bigotry about CB by radio amateurs. CB
has been around for 49 years in the USA.

I would say that the amateur radio of now is interesting
enough to the generations of now. The statistics seem to
bear that out. Those actively engaged in recruiting
newcomers need to look around at what is popular to the
generations of now in ham radio. That may be the hardest
task of all...learning what is new by those who thought
they knew it all.

Clubs as "recruting stations" for ham radio need honest
enthusiasm about PEOPLE of all kinds, all ages, be friendly
on a people level and not try so hard at "selling" the
hobby. Newcomers who've shown up at a club have already
expressed enough interest to show up, do not need the
"salesmen" types who want to "make a deal" for them.


I just don't know what those ways are.

There's no sure-fire cure. I'm not sure that there needs
to be one. I've suggested a few but examples of good and
bad (and indifferent) leadership abound in the various
local fraternal orders and other-hobby clubs. As we agree,
times have changed. That is not only for amateur radio
but other hobby activities as well. We all have to change
to stay "with it."

73, Len AF6AY