On Feb 25, 12:59�pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:

I personally expect to see the General/Advanced/Extra group to be in
the majority in a year myself. *In my opinion, the only reason it
would not occur that fast is if there is a significant percentage of
Techs/Tech+ who are inactive and don't know about the licensing
change.

I think there are a considerable number of US hams who
are inactive, and a considerable number who don't
know about the rules changes. Within the past year
I have had occasion to explain the *2000* rules changes
to several licensed hams who were not aware of how that
restructuring affected them. In a couple of those cases,
an upgrade resulted.

Based on personal experience, I can understand why one might not
include the Novice group. *I've not encountered any on the air and a
check of our club roster here shows no Novices. * *If there are any
active Novices out there, they are as scarce as hen's teeth. *The
license numbers (they've dropped by over 50%) seem to support the
thought that they have either upgraded by now or are inactive. *There
will be a few exceptions no doubt.

Agreed, but every month FCC reports at least some Novice
renewals. Sometimes there are enough renewals that the
Novice total actually climbs for a day or two.

A unique characteristic of the Novice license today is that
it now carries no test element credit at all towards an upgrade.

73 de Jim, N2EY