These are the number of current,
unexpired FCC-issued amateur
radio licenses held by individuals
on the stated dates, and the
percentage of the total number
of active licenses that class contains.

Percentages may not add up to exactly
100.0% due to rounding.

These totals do not include licenses
that have expired but are in the grace
period, nor do they include club, military
and other station-only licenses.

Effective April 15, 2000, FCC no longer issued
new Novice, Technician Plus and Advanced
class licenses, so the numbers of those license
classes have declined steadily since then.

Also since April 15, 2000, FCC has renewed all
existing Technician Plus licenses as Technician.
It is therefore informative to consider the totals of
the two classes, since the Technician class
includes a significant number of Technician Plus
licenses renewed as Technician.

On February 23, 2007, the last Morse Code
test element, the 5 wpm receiving test, was
eliminated as a requirement.

The ARS License Numbers:

As of May 14, 2000:

Novice- 49,329 (7.3%)
Technician - 205,394 (30.4%)
Technician Plus - 128,860 (19.1%)
General - 112,677 (16.7%)
Advanced - 99,782 (14.8%)
Extra - 78,750 (11.7%)

Total Tech/TechPlus - 334,254 (49.5%)

Total all classes - 674,792


As of February 22, 2007:

Novice - 22,896 (3.5%)
Technician - 293,508 (44.8%)
Technician Plus - 30,818 (4.7%)
General - 130,138 (19.9%)
Advanced - 69,050 (10.5%)
Extra - 108,270 (16.5%)

Total Tech/TechPlus - 324,326 (49.5%)

Total all classes - 654,680


As of July 1, 2007:

Novice - 21,738 (3.3%)
Technician - 286,771 (43.8%)
Technician Plus - 26,257 (4.0%)
General - 141,321 (21.6%)
Advanced - 67,506 (10.3%)
Extra - 110,799 (16.9%)

Total Tech/TechPlus - 313,028 (47.8%)

Total all classes - 654,392


As of July 15, 2007:

Novice - 21,677 (3.3%)
Technician - 286,791 (43.8%)
Technician Plus - 25,916 (4.0%)
General - 141,991 (21.7%)
Advanced - 67,426 (10.3%)
Extra - 110,936 (16.9%)

Total Tech/TechPlus - 312,707 (47.8%)

Total all classes - 654,737


As of July 23, 2007:

Novice - 21,627 (3.3%)
Technician - 287,171 (43.9%)
Technician Plus - 25,719 (3.9%)
General - 142,014 (21.7%)
Advanced - 67,331 (10.3%)
Extra - 111,031 (17.0%)

Total Tech/TechPlus - 312,890 (47.8%)

Total all classes - 654,893


Changes:

From May 14, 2000, to February 22, 2007:

Novice - decrease of 26,433
Technician - increase of 88,114
Technician Plus - decrease of 98,042
General - increase of 17,461
Advanced - decrease of 30,732
Extra - increase of 29,520

Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 9,928

Total all classes - decrease of 20,112


From May 14, 2000, to July 1, 2007:

Novice - decrease of 27,591
Technician - increase of 81,377
Technician Plus - decrease of 102,603
General - increase of 28,644
Advanced - decrease of 32,276
Extra - increase of 32,049

Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 21,226

Total all classes - decrease of 20,400


From May 14, 2000, to July 15, 2007:

Novice - decrease of 27,652
Technician - increase of 81,397
Technician Plus - decrease of 102,944
General - increase of 29,314
Advanced - decrease of 32,356
Extra - increase of 32,186

Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 21,547

Total all classes - decrease of 20,055


From May 14, 2000, to July 23, 2007:

Novice - decrease of 27,702
Technician - increase of 81,777
Technician Plus - decrease of 103,141
General - increase of 29,337
Advanced - decrease of 32,451
Extra - increase of 32,281

Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 21,364

Total all classes - decrease of 19,899


From February 22, 2007, to July 1, 2007:

Novice - decrease of 1158
Technician - decrease of 6,737
Technician Plus - decrease of 4,561
General - increase of 11,183
Advanced - decrease of 1,544
Extra - increase of 2,529

Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 11.298

Total all classes - decrease of 288


From February 22, 2007, to July 15, 2007:

Novice - decrease of 1,219
Technician - decrease of 6,717
Technician Plus - decrease of 4,902
General - increase of 11,853
Advanced - decrease of 1,624
Extra - increase of 2,666

Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 11,619

Total all classes - increase of 57


From February 22, 2007, to July 23, 2007:

Novice - decrease of 1,269
Technician - decrease of 6,337
Technician Plus - decrease of 5,099
General - increase of 11,876
Advanced - decrease of 1,719
Extra - increase of 2,761

Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 11,436

Total all classes - increase of 213


73 de Jim, N2EY

wrote in message
ups.com...

[snip]


From February 22, 2007, to July 23, 2007:

Novice - decrease of 1,269
Technician - decrease of 6,337
Technician Plus - decrease of 5,099
General - increase of 11,876
Advanced - decrease of 1,719
Extra - increase of 2,761

Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 11,436

Total all classes - increase of 213


73 de Jim, N2EY


While I expected a lot of upgrading to happen, this is more than I would
have expected in so short a time. And yet in another way, I'm surprised
that there are not even more people upgrading. I wonder if there are a lot
of inactive hams that just aren't getting the word?

Dee, N8UZE

On Jul 26, 7:50?pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:

While I expected a lot of upgrading to happen, this is more than I would
have expected in so short a time.

Consider a few factors, Dee:

1) There was a lot of notice that the changes were coming.
2) The changes reduced the number and types of test needed to upgrade
to General or Extra. Like a price reduction on an item.
3) While the raw numbers may look like a lot, compare them to the
percentages. Generals went from being 19.9% of US hams to 21.7%, while
Extras went from 16.5 to 17.0 %.

And yet in another way, I'm surprised
that there are not even more people upgrading. I wonder if there are a lot
of inactive hams that just aren't getting the word?

All sorts of factors:

- Some hams haven't gotten the word
- Some hams are inactive but still in the database
- Some hams are perfectly satisfied with the license they have
- Some hams are studying for their upgrade, waiting for a nearby VE
session, etc.
- Some hams are holding onto their old license classes for a variety
of reasons. For example, I have had more than one Advanced tell me
that s/he won't upgrade to Extra because the Advanced "proves" the
person passed a code test, while the Extra doesn't. Others have told
me that they're sure FCC will eventually give Advanceds a free upgrade
to Extra, so they're just waiting it out. At least one I know feels
insulted that it takes the same testing to go from General to Extra as
it does to go from Advanced to Extra.

All sorts of other reasons.

Perhaps there is someone out there who is determined to be the last
Extra or the last Novice on the books.

With 10 year licensing, it's possible that a considerable percentage
of the US amateur population has dropped out but still shows up in the
database. For example, if 2% of the US amateur population dies per
year, and the total is relatively stable, there will be approximately
10% of the total who are dead but whose licenses are still valid. (I
got this number by assuming that it's equally likely for a ham to die
in any year of the 10 year license term, which means that the median
would be 5 years. 5 years times 2% is 10%).

2% may be a low number, too - it assumes that the *average* amateur is
licensed for 50 years.

In any event, at least the steady decline in the ARS license numbers
since 2003 or so seems to have stopped.

73 de Jim, N2EY

wrote:
On Jul 26, 7:50?pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:

While I expected a lot of upgrading to happen, this is more than I would
have expected in so short a time.

Consider a few factors, Dee:

1) There was a lot of notice that the changes were coming.
2) The changes reduced the number and types of test needed to upgrade
to General or Extra. Like a price reduction on an item.
3) While the raw numbers may look like a lot, compare them to the
percentages. Generals went from being 19.9% of US hams to 21.7%, while
Extras went from 16.5 to 17.0 %.

And yet in another way, I'm surprised
that there are not even more people upgrading. I wonder if there are a lot
of inactive hams that just aren't getting the word?

All sorts of factors:

- Some hams haven't gotten the word

I still have prospective Hams tell me that they have to brush up on
their Morse code so they can test. Oddly enough a few fellows continued
in that line of even after I told them they didn't need to.

- Some hams are inactive but still in the database
- Some hams are perfectly satisfied with the license they have
- Some hams are studying for their upgrade, waiting for a nearby VE
session, etc.
- Some hams are holding onto their old license classes for a variety
of reasons. For example, I have had more than one Advanced tell me
that s/he won't upgrade to Extra because the Advanced "proves" the
person passed a code test, while the Extra doesn't.

Same here! I suppose that if a person runs with a crowd that sees that
as somehow being better than other people it might be legit. Otherwise
it strikes me as really odd.


Others have told
me that they're sure FCC will eventually give Advanceds a free upgrade
to Extra, so they're just waiting it out.

I'd tell them the same thing I told those who waited out element one's
demise: "If the wait doesn't bother you, then go ahead and wait." There
were people telling me to wait it out back in 1999 "because Element 1
will be going away any day now!" But I didn't wait, and I wouldn't trade
the extra 7 years I had my General and Extra for anything.



At least one I know feels
insulted that it takes the same testing to go from General to Extra as
it does to go from Advanced to Extra.

Oh my! Does this person want a special test made up just for him?
Exactly what dud they see as insulting about having to take the same
test? It isn't that any of the tests are or ever were that difficult (I
think they are at the correct level of difficulty FWIW)


All sorts of other reasons.

Perhaps there is someone out there who is determined to be the last
Extra or the last Novice on the books.

Did you mean Advanced instead of Extra?



In any event, at least the steady decline in the ARS license numbers
since 2003 or so seems to have stopped.

While we have discussed lots of reasons for that decline, I know of
another possibility, at least for a delay. I know several Hams who
waited for the Element one to go away after it was eliminated from the
treaty yet not gone from our testing requirements. The long wait made
for an upgrade delay on some peoples part. I thought that the delay was
actually a harmful thing in that respect.

- 73 de Mike KB3EIa -

wrote in message
ups.com...

[snip]


In any event, at least the steady decline in the ARS license numbers
since 2003 or so seems to have stopped.

73 de Jim, N2EY


Yet that could also be attributable to other factors. There is insufficient
correlation to attribute it to the change in licensing. For example we are
now probably close to the end of shaking out those who got licensed as whole
families in the 1990s for family communications around town. While some
developed further interest in amateur radio, there were quite a few who have
let their licenses lapse as they went to cell phones or otherwise had no
further need of that type of communication.

Dee, N8UZE

On Jul 27, 2:39?pm, Michael Coslo wrote:
wrote:

- Some hams haven't gotten the word

I still have prospective Hams tell me that they have to brush up on
their Morse code so they can test. Oddly enough a few fellows continued
in that line of even after I told them they didn't need to.

I just don't understand that at all.

For example, I have had more than one Advanced tell me
that s/he won't upgrade to Extra because the Advanced "proves" the
person passed a code test, while the Extra doesn't.

Same here! I suppose that if a person runs with a crowd that sees that
as somehow being better than other people it might be legit. Otherwise
it strikes me as really odd.

Which is a better indicator of Morse Code skill:

1) Once upon a time, maybe decades ago, a person passed a particular
test under certain conditions

or

2) A person demonstrating their *current* skills under real-world
operating conditions?

Seems to me #2 is the better indicator.

Others have told
me that they're sure FCC will eventually give Advanceds a free upgrade
to Extra, so they're just waiting it out.

Even when I point out that FCC has repeatedly turned down auto-upgrade
proposals, they aren't convinced.

I'd tell them the same thing I told those who waited out element one's
demise: "If the wait doesn't bother you, then go ahead and wait." There
were people telling me to wait it out back in 1999 "because Element 1
will be going away any day now!" But I didn't wait, and I wouldn't trade
the extra 7 years I had my General and Extra for anything.

When I got my Extra in 1970, some folks said I was wasting my time and
effort because "incentive licensing won't last - in a few years
Generals will have all privileges again..."

At least one I know feels
insulted that it takes the same testing to go from General to Extra as
it does to go from Advanced to Extra.

Oh my! Does this person want a special test made up just for him?

Actually, yes - or rather, for all Advanceds.

Exactly what dud they see as insulting about having to take the same
test?

He was angry that having passed the old Advanced written did not carry
any testing credit towards Extra.

Perhaps there is someone out there who is determined to be the last


make that "Advanced"

or the last Novice on the books.

Did you mean Advanced instead of Extra?

Yes - sorry!

Sooner or later, the last of those closed-off licenses will disappear.
It may take a very long time, though - the number of Advanceds today
is about 67% of what it was when the license class was closed to new
issues.

While we have discussed lots of reasons for that decline, I know of
another possibility, at least for a delay. I know several Hams who
waited for the Element one to go away after it was eliminated from the
treaty yet not gone from our testing requirements. The long wait made
for an upgrade delay on some peoples part. I thought that the delay was
actually a harmful thing in that respect.

IOW: "if you're going to change the rules, change 'em! Don't take
3-1/2 years to make such a simple change!"

I think the amateur radio organizations that pushed for the changes
bear some responsibility for that delay.

Here's why:

It seems to me that the way we US hams deal with the FCC is completely
backwards.

What happens is that an individual or group puts together a proposal
and sends it to FCC, who then assigns it an RM number and puts it up
there for comments. FCC gets anywhere from a few to a few thousand
comments of all kinds, somebody at FCC has to read them and categorize
them and figure out the best course of action.
Often the comments are all over the map, or solidly against the
proposed change.

What all this does is make a lot of unnecessary work for the FCC.

Two examples:

When the ITU treaty changed, FCC got more than a dozen different
proposals about changing the license structure. One organization,
NCVEC, sent in two proposals! Some of the proposals were essentially
identical to others, such as the NCI proposal and the first NCVEC
proposal.

The result was that FCC had to assign RM numbers and deal with
thousands of comments before taking any action. Which then resulted in
an NPRM, still more comments, and finally action after 3-1/2 *years*.

Or consider the ARRL "regulation by bandwidth" proposal, and the
"Communications Think Tank" proposal to eliminate subbands-by-mode.
Both proposals were opposed by a vast majority of commenters (I
counted something like 7 to 1 against the ARRL proposal and 8 to 1
against the CTT proposal) and both were quietly withdrawn by those who
proposed them - after they had generated a lot of work for FCC.

What *should* be done, IMHO, is for amateur organizations to do the
legwork up-front. IOW,
I think the way to do a proposal is:
1) Gather up lots of opinions from the amateur community
2) Write a draft proposal
3) Present it to the amateur community, with clear explanation of what
is proposed and why.
4) Gather more opinions by means of surveys, polls, etc.
5) Rework the draft proposal based on the input received
6 Repeat steps 3 through 5 until a proposal gets a clear and
compelling majority of support from the amateur community, and the
opposition's points are dealt with.IOW, build a consensus *first*
7) Submit the proposal to FCC, including the survey/poll results.

If all that were done, FCC would assign an RM number and then be
flooded with supportive comments. FCC could then easily rubber-stamp
approval of the proposal.

But doing it that way takes a lot of grunt work, time, and effort.
Also takes compromise.

73 de Jim, N2EY

On Jul 27, 6:52?pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:
wrote in message
ups.com...

In any event, at least the steady decline in the ARS license numbers
since 2003 or so seems to have stopped.

There is insufficient
correlation to attribute it to the change in licensing.

Correlation is not causation. Very true, Dee.

For example we are
now probably close to the end of shaking out those who
got licensed as whole
families in the 1990s for family communications around
town. While some
developed further interest in amateur radio, there were
quite a few who have
let their licenses lapse as they went to cell phones or
otherwise had no
further need of that type of communication.

That's certainly possible. Here's another possibility:

I think the distribution of amateur licenses by expiration date
isn't uniform. I suspect this is driven by many factors, one of
which is rules changes for things like vanity callsigns.

Another factor is the long-term trend for older people to be
new hams. Nothing wrong with that at all, but if someone got
their first license in the early 1980s as a retiree, they're pushing
90 now (if they're still with us).

Still another possibility is that the impending rules changes
caused the decline of the past few years, if prospective
hams delayed their entry into amateur radio, waiting for the
rules to change. If you knew that the price of flat-screen
HDTV sets was going to take a nosedive a year from now, you
might hold off on buying one till then.

On top of all that is the fact that, whatever we speculate on the
causes, it's only been 5 months. There's no way to tell if there
is a long-term trend/change at work or not.

73 de Jim, N2EY

wrote in message
ups.com...

For example, I have had more than one Advanced tell me
that s/he won't upgrade to Extra because the Advanced "proves" the
person passed a code test, while the Extra doesn't.

The only valid "proof" of code proficiency is a practical demonstration on the
air. If we can hold a QSO (actual speed is not important), then you've passed
my code test. Your license class is of no importance in this.

The Man in the Maze
QRQ (or QRS) from Baboquivari Peak, AZ

--
Iitoi

On Thu, 26 Jul 2007 23:20:01 EDT, wrote:
- Some hams are holding onto their old license classes for a variety
of reasons. For example, I have had more than one Advanced tell me
that s/he won't upgrade to Extra because the Advanced "proves" the
person passed a code test, while the Extra doesn't.

Back in 2000, when the FCC lowered the code speed to 5 WPM and restructured
licenses, there was an article in one ham magazine, I think CQ, proposing an
exam for Extra hams to take which would demonstrate current lack of knowledge
about Extra material, thereby demoting these Extras back to Advanced. That way
their license listing would show the world that they passed a code test faster
than 5 WPM.

The article did caution would-be test takers to make sure they didn't miss too
many questions on that exam, lest they be demoted all the way to Technician!

73 de Dick, AC7EL

Michael Coslo wrote:

I still have prospective Hams tell me that they have to brush up on
their Morse code so they can test. Oddly enough a few fellows continued
in that line of even after I told them they didn't need to.


I've been saying that for months. If you take one step outside of
amateur radio circles, they know NOTHING about any changes to the
licensing system.