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#1
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These are the number of current,
unexpired FCC-issued amateur radio licenses held by individuals on the stated dates, and the percentage of the total number of active licenses that class contains. Percentages may not add up to exactly 100.0% due to rounding. These totals do not include licenses that have expired but are in the grace period, nor do they include club, military and other station-only licenses. Effective April 15, 2000, FCC no longer issued new Novice, Technician Plus and Advanced class licenses, so the numbers of those license classes have declined steadily since then. Also since April 15, 2000, FCC has renewed all existing Technician Plus licenses as Technician. It is therefore informative to consider the totals of the two classes, since the Technician class includes a significant number of Technician Plus licenses renewed as Technician. Due the renewing of Technician Pluses as Technicians, the number of Novices now exceeds the number of Technician Pluses. On February 23, 2007, the last Morse Code test element, the 5 wpm receiving test, was eliminated as a requirement. The ARS License Numbers: As of May 14, 2000: Novice- 49,329 (7.3%) Technician - 205,394 (30.4%) Technician Plus - 128,860 (19.1%) General - 112,677 (16.7%) Advanced - 99,782 (14.8%) Extra - 78,750 (11.7%) Total Tech/TechPlus - 334,254 (49.5%) Total all classes - 674,792 As of February 22, 2007: Novice - 22,896 (3.5%) Technician - 293,508 (44.8%) Technician Plus - 30,818 (4.7%) General - 130,138 (19.9%) Advanced - 69,050 (10.5%) Extra - 108,270 (16.5%) Total Tech/TechPlus - 324,326 (49.5%) Total all classes - 654,680 As of February 23, 2008: Novice - 20,119 (3.1%) Technician - 297,709 (45.3%) Technician Plus - 18,973 (2.9%) General - 142,812 (21.7%) Advanced - 64,883 (9.9%) Extra - 112,411 (17.1%) Total Tech/TechPlus - 316,682 (48.2%) Total all classes - 656,857 Changes: From May 14, 2000, to February 22, 2007: Novice - decrease of 26,433 Technician - increase of 88,114 Technician Plus - decrease of 98,042 General - increase of 17,461 Advanced - decrease of 30,732 Extra - increase of 29,520 Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 9,928 Total all classes - decrease of 20,112 From May 14, 2000, to February 23, 2008: Novice - decrease of 29,210 Technician - increase of 92,315 Technician Plus - decrease of 109,887 General - increase of 30,135 Advanced - decrease of 34,949 Extra - increase of 33,661 Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 17,572 Total all classes - decrease of 17,935 From February 22, 2007, to February 23, 2008: Novice - decrease of 2,777 Technician - increase of 4,201 Technician Plus - decrease of 11,845 General - increase of 12,674 Advanced - decrease of 4,217 Extra - increase of 4,141 Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 7,644 Total all classes - increase of 2,177 73 de Jim, N2EY |
#2
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![]() wrote in message ... [snip] As of February 22, 2007: Total all classes - 654,680 As of February 23, 2008: Total all classes - 656,857 Therefore the change from Feb 22, 2007 to Feb 23, 2008 was 0.33% increase. Here are the guesses that were on the list. N8UZE: 1% less to 1% more -- Average = 0% change --- "winner" of guessing game N2EY: 1% more to 2% more -- Average = 1.5% growth --- "3rd place" in guessing game KH6HZ: 1% less to 0% change -- Average = 0.5% decline --- "2nd place" in guessing game N3KIP: 2% more to 6% more -- Average = 4.0% growth KH6O: 6% more to 10% more -- Average = 8.0% growth KK6J: 12% more to 14% more -- Average = 13.0% growth KC2HMZ: 5% more -- Average = 5% growth K8BSG: 2% to 3% more -- Average = 2.5% growth Perhaps the next year will bring more growth or perhaps it won't. Dee, N8UZE |
#3
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So perhaps the code issue wasn't all that important, anyway.
-- Alan WA4SCA |
#4
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"Dee Flint" wrote in
: wrote in message . .. [snip] As of February 22, 2007: Total all classes - 654,680 As of February 23, 2008: Total all classes - 656,857 Therefore the change from Feb 22, 2007 to Feb 23, 2008 was 0.33% increase. Here are the guesses that were on the list. N8UZE: 1% less to 1% more -- Average = 0% change --- "winner" of guessing game N2EY: 1% more to 2% more -- Average = 1.5% growth --- "3rd place" in guessing game KH6HZ: 1% less to 0% change -- Average = 0.5% decline --- "2nd place" in guessing game N3KIP: 2% more to 6% more -- Average = 4.0% growth KH6O: 6% more to 10% more -- Average = 8.0% growth KK6J: 12% more to 14% more -- Average = 13.0% growth KC2HMZ: 5% more -- Average = 5% growth K8BSG: 2% to 3% more -- Average = 2.5% growth What I think is important is that new Hams are coming on board to replace those that were lost after the big drop-off happened. That drop is very likely to have been caused by the so called "honeydo" Hams who became inactive with the ascendency of cell phones. It will take a lot of new Hams testing to replace that dropoff. It looks like we are doing it, slow and steady. Just as it should be. The focus of of this poll is to judge the impact of the elimination of element 1 on the numbers of Hams. Is it possible that given the other issue of drop offs, that it is very difficult to draw a reliable conclusion from it? Perhaps the next year will bring more growth or perhaps it won't. Hard to disagree with that! 8^) - 73 d eMike N3LI - |
#5
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Alan WA4SCA wrote in
: So perhaps the code issue wasn't all that important, anyway. Hi Alan It is so hard to determine. It is possible that no one cared, or that it just takes time for news to get out - Hams are not a noisy publicity seeking bunch. Or it could be that New hams are coming along nicely. We are testing and granting licenses at a pretty good clip. I don't have the numbers handy, Anyone out there have them? We did have that big drop off of Hams who have since moved on to cell phones - those who used the first non element 1 tested group to use repeaters for local family comms, which is probably continuing, and it will take several years and a lot of new hams just to tread water. I think we won't really know until around 7 to 10 years have passed. - 73 de Mike N3LI - |
#6
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On Feb 25, 12:09 am, Mike Coslo wrote:
We are testing and granting licenses at a pretty good clip. I don't have the numbers handy, Anyone out there have them? Easy - just go to http://www.hamdata.com/fccinfo.html For example, in the last 365 days FCC has licensed 27,211 new amateurs. I think we won't really know until around 7 to 10 years have passed. Complicated by the fact that the rules are rarely left alone for anywhere near that long. Consider the past 25 years or so: ~1983: VE system created; question pools become public, license terms doubled to 10 years 1987: Old General/Tech Element 3 split into 3A and 3B, making it easier to get a Tech ~1990: Morse Code test waivers make any class license available with 5 wpm and a doctor's note. 1991: Technician loses its code test. ~1994:Vanity call program 2000: Restructuring reduces number of available-to-new-issue license classes from 6 to 3 and reduces both code and written testing for all classes 2006: HF 'phone bands widened, particularly 75 meters. 2007: Morse Code test eliminated. On top of all that is the "anticipation effect". It takes FCC a long time to make up its mind, and that delay can have effects of its own. (If you were thinking of buying something and heard there would be a big sale next month, wouldn't you tend to put off the sale until then? Or if you heard the price was going to rise significantly, wouldn't you tend to buy right now?) The treaty requirement for Morse Code testing changed in July 2003 but it took FCC more than 3-1/2 years to get around to changing the rules. Could it be that there were some folks waiting for the change to take place? 73 de Jim, N2EY |
#8
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Alan WA4SCA wrote:
So perhaps the code issue wasn't all that important, anyway. Perhaps it is just ONE factor among many. Other factors may include: * the almost complete lack of any reporting of this change to the world outside ham radio. I would like to see a poll that asks people what they know about this. My guess is that if you take one step outside of ham radio circles, you will find that no one knows anything about it. * the aging (and death) of the ham population. The ten year license term means that, on average, it will be five years before a dead ham is dropped from the rolls, assuming that his heirs do not notify the FCC. * We have no way of knowing whether a licensed ham is active, so there again, it will take years for inactive hams to be dropped from the license database, assuming that they take no action to renew their licenses. In sum, I believe that the small change in licensing numbers does not rise to the level of statistical significance. Given the magnitude of the unknowable quantities described above, we probably cannot tell whether the population of live, active hams has grown or shrunken. Is there a statistician in the house? I would like to see an estimate of the margin of uncertainty of those numbers (plus or minus x percent), given the various unknown factors. -- Klystron |
#9
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Klystron wrote:
In sum, I believe that the small change in licensing numbers does not rise to the level of statistical significance. Given the magnitude of the unknowable quantities described above, we probably cannot tell whether the population of live, active hams has grown or shrunken. Is there a statistician in the house? I would like to see an estimate of the margin of uncertainty of those numbers (plus or minus x percent), given the various unknown factors. I don't claim to be a statistician but it is an easy bet that there are sufficient variables to place the current result within the error of the measurement technique. This is especially true when you add that magic word "active" to your requirement. The most reliable statistic is the number of new hams being licensed. Even for those, it's not possible to say if they're "active" (no matter what your definition might be for that term). But if 27,000 people invested the effort to obtain a license during the last year, at least we know that about 1 in 10,000 people cared enough to study for and pass the exam. 73, Steve KB9X |
#10
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![]() "Klystron" wrote in message ... Alan WA4SCA wrote: [snip] * the almost complete lack of any reporting of this change to the world outside ham radio. I would like to see a poll that asks people what they know about this. My guess is that if you take one step outside of ham radio circles, you will find that no one knows anything about it. Since most of the "outside world" doesn't and didn't have a clue about the requirements to get a ham license, publicizing the elimination of the Morse code testing would have had little to no impact. The only way it might have helped was in letting people know that ham radio exists. * the aging (and death) of the ham population. The ten year license term means that, on average, it will be five years before a dead ham is dropped from the rolls, assuming that his heirs do not notify the FCC. Try more like 6 years since there is a two year grace period after the expiration date that also needs to be factored in. Dee, N8UZE |
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