:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2011 Oct 18 1802 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 - 16 October 2011

Solar activity was low. Activity for the period consisted of
numerous C-class flares. The primary contributors were Region 1319
(N11, L=051, class/area Eki/280 on 16 October) and 1314 (N25, L=056,
class/area Cho/370 on 12 October). The background solar flux levels
and sunspot numbers stayed elevated throughout the week due to the
number of active regions on the disk, but most of these were stable
and were not flare productive.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels throughout the period.

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the week. A brief
substorm interval was observed at high latitudes early on 12
October. There was a modest increase to quiet to unsettled levels
with some isolated active periods at high latitudes on 15-16
October. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated
an increase in solar wind velocity on 15-16 October which had
signatures consistent with a coronal hole driven high speed solar
wind stream.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
19 October - 14 November 2011

Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low with a chance for
an isolated M-class event for 19 October - 01 November due to the
number of active regions as well as the return of old Region 1302
(N12, L=280, class/area Fkc/1300 on 24 September), which produced
two X-class flares and numerious M-class flares during its previous
disk transit. Though initially very active, old Region 1302 decayed
and became much less flare productive by the time it exited the
solar disk on 05 October. As of the issue date of this report (18
October) old Region 1302 was just beginning to rotate onto the solar
disk and appears to be a likely source for occasional C-class flares
and may pose a slight threat for M-class flares. Solar activity is
expected to decline to very low to low levels for the remainder of
the interval from 02-14 November. As always during this time of the
cycle there is also a chance for unexpected flux emergence which
could elevate solar activity levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at background levels for most of the outlook interval
with the exception of 28 October - 01 November when an increase to
high levels is expected due to recurrence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet for 19-27
October, generally unsettled for 28-30 October, quiet for 31 October
- 02 November, unsettled for 03-05 November, quiet for 06-10
November, unsettled for 11-13 November, and quiet for 14 November.
The increases to unsettled levels are expected due to recurrence
from coronal hole driven high speed solar wind streams.