:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Jan 02 0408 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 December - 01 January 2017

Solar activity was at background levels through the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels from 26-31 Dec, dropping to normal to moderate levels
late on 31 Dec - 01 Jan due to increased geomagnetic activity from
the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm
levels through the period. G1 conditions were observed early on 26
Dec as influence from a positive polarity CH HSS persisted from the
previous reporting period. The CH HSS began to wane early on 27 Dec,
causing a geomagnetic activity decrease to quiet to active levels.
As solar wind speeds continue their slow decline, quiet to unsettled
conditions on 28 Dec gave way to quiet conditions on 29-30 Dec.
Quiet to unsettled activity was once again observed beginning on 31
Dec as the onset of another positive polarity CH HSS was observed.
Wind speeds increased from around 300 km/s to between 450-550 km/s
as well as total magnetic field strength from around 5 nT to a peak
of nearly 20 nT at 31/1636 UTC. Active conditions were observed
early on 01 Jan as the CIR transitioned into the high-speed stream
proper. As total magnetic field strength gradually trended towards 5
nT, geomagnetic activity decreased to quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 January - 28 January 2017

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the
outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be high on 02-03 Jan, 05-13 Jan, and 18-27 Jan; moderate
electron flux is expected on 04 Jan, 14-17 Jan and 28 Jan. All
increases in electron flux are anticipated in response to multiple,
recurrent CH HSSs

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on
02 Jan, 08 Jan, 14 Jan and 23 Jan; active levels are expected on
03-04 Jan, 06-07 Jan, 20-22 Jan and 27-28 Jan; G1 (Minor) storm
levels are likely on 05 Jan and 17-19 Jan. All elevated geomagnetic
activity is anticipated in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
The remainder of the outlook period is expected to observe quiet
conditions under an ambient solar wind environment.