:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Feb 20 0107 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 - 19 February 2017

Solar activity was at very low levels with only weak background
flare activity observed. An 11 degree long filament eruption,
centered near N08E02, was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery beginning
around 19/0525 UTC. A faint CME was observed off the NE limb,
observed in LASCO C2 imagery, at around 19/0648 UTC. WSA-Enlil
analysis indicated a possible glancing blow at Earth mid to late on
22 Feb. No other activity was observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 13-14 Feb with moderate levels observed on 15-19 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 13-15 Feb, quiet
to isolated unsettled to active levels on 16 Feb, quiet to active
levels on 17-18 Feb and quiet to unsettled levels on 19 Feb. A
recurrent, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
became geoeffective early on 17 Feb affecting the geomagnetic field
through late on 19 Feb. During this period, solar wind speeds
generally ranged from 500-600 km/s, total field Bt peaked at 13 nT
early on 17 Feb while the Bz component reached a maximum southward
extent of -8 nT early on 17 Feb. Phi angle was in a predominately
positive orientation.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 February - 18 March 2017

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance
for isolated C-class activity throughout the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 20-27 Feb and 01-13 Mar. Normal to
moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook
period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storm levels on 28 Feb and G1 (Minor) storm levels on 24
Feb, 01-02 Mar and again on 16 Mar due to recurrent CH HSS
influence. Active geomagnetic field activity is expected on 23 and
25 Feb, 03-05 Mar and 17 Mar due to CH HSS influence. Isolated
active conditions are likely on 22 Feb due to a glancing blow from
the 19 Feb CME. Quiet to unsettled activity is expected for the
remainder of the period under a nominal solar wind regime.