:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 May 03 0219 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 April - 02 May 2021

Solar activity was reached low levels on 26 Apr. A C1 flare from
Region 2816 (S24, L=262, class/area Dai/120 on 19 Apr) at 26/0230
UTC was the largest of the period. A DSF was also observed on 26
Apr, lifting off around 26/1635 UTC. Most of the ejecta appears to
have been headed to the SW of Earth's orbit, though the lack of
available STEREO-A coronagraph imagery increased uncertainty around
determining if an Earth-directed component was present. All of the
other active regions were in decay and mostly quiet as they rotated
towards the western limb. Only low-level B-class activity was
observed over 27 Apr - 02 May.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
mostly normal to moderate with the exception of a brief high level
(peak flux of 1,810 pfu reached at 30/1550 UTC) reached on 30 Apr.

Geomagnetic field activity range from quiet to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) levels were observed on 26 Apr
in response to enhancements from a CME that left the Sun on 22 Apr.
Total magnetic field strength was weakly enhanced reaching 7 nT
while Bz was sustained southward to -7 nT. Solar wind speeds were
steadily elevated to speeds between ~480-500 km/s prior the G1
event. Geomagnetic conditions would decrease to quiet - unsettled
levels on 27 Apr and into quiet over 28 Apr - 01 May as solar wind
parameters returned to nominal levels. A slight increase to
unsettled conditions was observed on 02 May due to what appears to
be influence from the current sheet with a possible embedded weak
transient.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
03 May - 29 May 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the
outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels from 03-13 May and 25-29
May. High levels are likely on 14-24 May in response to multiple,
recurrent, negative polarity CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2
(Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels on 13 May are likely to increase to G2 (Moderate) levels on
14 May. Active conditions are likely on 03-04 May, 12 May, 15-17 May
and 20 May. Unsettled levels are likely on 05 May, 11 May, and 21
May. All anticipated elevations in geomagnetic activity are in
response to influence from recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the
outlook period is expected to at quiet levels.