Dee:

That certainly brings things to perspecive--doesn't it?, there are roughly
33 million (and uncounted illegals) here in calif alone... (I think canada
is much less than Calif's population--so is australia)

The whole world of hams is only a small minority here in calif (more illegal
aliens here!!!!)

But, I see your point, there is much more of a market in most any other area
of communications, marine communications alone would be a larger market
share... police/ambulance/fire radios probably are a larger share!!!
Aircraft radios?

But, it would be better to market to gov't, industry, military, public
service, etc... your point is well taken...

Warmest regards,
John
--
Sit down the six-pack!!! STEP AWAY!!! ...and go do something...

"Dee Flint" wrote in message
...
|
| "John Smith" wrote in message
| ...
| I don't think the "apple boys" had ever designed a complete computer
before
| they did--indeed, don't remember anyone else (or team of engineers,
techs,
| scientists, etc...) doing a desktop before then...
|
| You mean, China, Russia, India, USA, Canada, So. American, Mexico,
| etc--and
| every gov't, business, private individual, ham and cb'er... is not a big
| enough market... these things would be manufactured in China yanno!!!
|
|
| Nope the entire world wide population of hams is NOT enough. The US has
| just under 700,000. Japan has somewhere around 1 million (there numbers
are
| hard to determine due to their licensing system). The remainder of the
| world combined has right around the same total of the US. This gives a
| worldwide ham population of under 2.5 million. So starting from that
| rough estimate, let's look at some figures. Very, very few people buy a
new
| HF rig annually. Just using the people I know, it's more like every 5 to
10
| years. So let's use an average of 7.5 years. That means a total of
333,000
| new radios (rounding off the answer) sold in any given year. Now split
that
| between 3 makers, yielding 111,000 units per maker. That's pretty low
| volume to undertake radical development. We're probably lucky that we get
| any new features.
|
| Dee D. Flint, N8UZE
|
|

I think that's wildly optimistic. First, many, many licensed amateurs
aren't active and don't own a rig at all. Another very large fraction
buy only VHF/UHF gear. And, I don't know whether your figure of 700k
hams with U.S. licenses includes the large number who are residents of
other countries and also have licenses in those countries. Many of the
foreign hams I hear from give a U.S. callsign along with their native one.

I think the only reason we get the radios we do is that the
manufacturers can combine the design with equipment for other markets,
such as public safety for HTs. I've read that the lack of 220 MHz HTs is
because of the absence of a nearby public service band, so the
manufacturers can't use the same design for both services. I find that
believable. I don't know how important additional markets are to HF
equipment development, or what they would be these days. My guess is
that the manufacturers don't make an awful lot on their HF equipment lines.

In any case, the total market, particularly for HF gear, is surely much
less than this estimate.

Roy Lewallen, W7EL

Dee Flint wrote:

Nope the entire world wide population of hams is NOT enough. The US has
just under 700,000. Japan has somewhere around 1 million (there numbers are
hard to determine due to their licensing system). The remainder of the
world combined has right around the same total of the US. This gives a
worldwide ham population of under 2.5 million. So starting from that
rough estimate, let's look at some figures. Very, very few people buy a new
HF rig annually. Just using the people I know, it's more like every 5 to 10
years. So let's use an average of 7.5 years. That means a total of 333,000
new radios (rounding off the answer) sold in any given year. Now split that
between 3 makers, yielding 111,000 units per maker. That's pretty low
volume to undertake radical development. We're probably lucky that we get
any new features.

Dee D. Flint, N8UZE

Hi John,

Well, great men have come and gone, what are some younger names which will
be taking on these challenges of the future?

I think Rick Campbell has gotta be 30-something or 40-something? I know one
of his former professors, and that professor has only been a teacher for
something like a decade now...

To some degree, younger folks are out there working at their day jobs. Not
that I'll know for another few decades, but I expect that retirement gives one
a lot of time to 'catch up' on their favorite ham persuits. Bob Larkin
designed the DSP-10 software defined radio back in 1999 and -- while I'm
making a lot of guesses here -- I believe that was not too long after Celwave
(now defunct) bought his small company where he was designing and producing
cell phone base station equipment and thereby allowed him a little more free
time to design and publish for the amateur community.

I don't expect people in their 50's on up to be the innovators, it is the
younger crowd who has been educated in universities, with access to the
newest state of the art labs available which will be taking on these
projects--that is a given, I never though different...

Colleges today are a very different place than they were, say, 30 or more
years ago. At least here in the US, it's pretty much "expected" that everyone
at least attempts to receive a higher education, and this has caused a large
change in college curriculum. To put it bluntly, it's become dumbed down and
a shockingly large percentage of the students there really don't _want_ a
highly challenging, rigorous five years -- they want a decent income in a
reasonably secure industry (computers and electronics). Industry goes along
with this because, realistically, what they need are predominently technician
level employees and not true innovators or researchers.

Of course, for people truly interested in learning and innovating, there are
probably more opportunities now than ever before (think of what Einstein could
have done if he had been born in 1980...). What I'm arguing here is that it
shouldn't be surprising that an increase in the number of college students and
the availability of high quality test equipment doesn't translate into some
phenomenally large spike in the innovation seen in amateur radio.

There is plenty of innovation going on in amateur radio right now. Winlink
2000 is a good example: many of the people who support it are the younger set,
and many of the people who oppose it are the 'geriatric' crowd! Some of the
true technical problems with WL2K -- such as the lack of busy detectors, best
performance being obtained only with the proprietary PACTOR 3 modems, etc. --
have spurred additional innovation with results such as SCAMP. I actually
find it quite surprising that the most "digital radio" innovation seems to
occur on the HF bands rather than VHF or above, but I expect this will change
in the not so distant future. (I've mentioned before that personally I'm
eyeing the 220MHz band -- very much neglected for many years now -- as prime
territory for digital experimentation...)

---Joel

"Joel Kolstad" ) writes:

I think that was Edison? Einstein said something like, "Creativity is more
important than knowledge," which unfortunately a lot of people seem to want to
interpret as "Hence, knowledge is unimportant," which is not at all what he
meant.

You can't really be creative unless you understand the situation. On the
other hand, people can spout things but be unable to do anything with
it because they aren't extracting from the situation.

Creativity is an extrapolation. A good example is Charles Kitchin's
work with regen and superregen receivers. He went back, looked at early
material, understood it, and then implemented solid state versions.

Michael VE2BVW

Roy,

You make a lot of good points. I would like to see the return of 220MHz HTs!
I am heartened to see that the stereotype of hams as tightwads has softened to
some degree... perhaps it is all the boomers retiring and finding that buying
a new rig every year or two really doesn't put too much of a dent in their
annual vacation plans.

How many of those 2.5 million hams possess a copy of EZNEC, I wonder? :-)

---Joel

In article ,
John Smith wrote:

Dee:

That certainly brings things to perspecive--doesn't it?, there are roughly
33 million (and uncounted illegals) here in calif alone... (I think canada
is much less than Calif's population--so is australia)

The whole world of hams is only a small minority here in calif (more illegal
aliens here!!!!)

But, I see your point, there is much more of a market in most any other area
of communications, marine communications alone would be a larger market
share... police/ambulance/fire radios probably are a larger share!!!
Aircraft radios?

But, it would be better to market to gov't, industry, military, public
service, etc... your point is well taken...

Right... and this design approach might or might not be attractive to
them, given their specific needs.

You wrote earlier today of the new generation of youngsters, with
access to better equipment, at today's colleges. That might be a good
next place for you to consider floating this idea... you might find an
EE professor who would consider it to be an attractive design project
for a graduate-level (or high-undergrad) class in RF and electronic
design.

While you're there, you might also want to see if you could persuade
somebody in the business school tackle the other aspects of such a
venture... a market analysis, and a business-case justification.

For any such design to fly, it's going to have to make both technical
sense, and economic sense... as defined by the people you expect to
have buy/use it.

--
Dave Platt AE6EO
Hosting the Jade Warrior home page: http://www.radagast.org/jade-warrior
I do _not_ wish to receive unsolicited commercial email, and I will
boycott any company which has the gall to send me such ads!

Joel Kolstad wrote:
. . .
How many of those 2.5 million hams possess a copy of EZNEC, I wonder? :-)

A miniscule fraction.

I get many requests to contribute EZNEC for a door prize and gladly did
so, quite a few times. Not a single one of the stamped, self-addressed
post cards enclosed with the programs was ever returned, which I've
interpreted to mean that the recipients most likely never used the
program. I belive that the vast majority of amateurs not only don't have
EZNEC, but wouldn't have any use for it if given one. I no longer
contribute EZNEC, since there's no point in giving as a prize something
there's high probability that the recipient doesn't want. On the
positive side, there are enough EZNEC users to have allowed me to stay
out of the cube farm for ten years now. And they're a great bunch of folks.

Roy Lewallen, W7EL

"Roy Lewallen" wrote in message
...
I get many requests to contribute EZNEC for a door prize and gladly did
so, quite a few times. Not a single one of the stamped, self-addressed
post cards enclosed with the programs was ever returned, which I've
interpreted to mean that the recipients most likely never used the
program.

Hmm... I suppose that, instead of the way it's usually done where every one is
eligible for every prize, hamfests could perform raffles where people have
checked off what prize they really want (give them so many "raffle points"
that they can spend on various "priced" prizes they win if their ticket is
drawn).

You could ask at FDIM how many of the people there have actually used EZNEC or
a similar program. Besides L. B. Cebik, of course... :-)

---Joel

Dave:

I am at loggerheads with admin. and my department head as I type...

There are many reasons that may not happen... the college knows them ALL...
if you think anyone suggesting something new is "shark-food" here, you
should see the entrenched lines of thought there...

....no one likes change--except a wet baby...

Warmest regards,
John
--
Sit down the six-pack!!! STEP AWAY!!! ...and go do something...

"Dave Platt" wrote in message
...
| In article ,
| John Smith wrote:
|
| Dee:
|
| That certainly brings things to perspecive--doesn't it?, there are
roughly
| 33 million (and uncounted illegals) here in calif alone... (I think
canada
| is much less than Calif's population--so is australia)
|
| The whole world of hams is only a small minority here in calif (more
illegal
| aliens here!!!!)
|
| But, I see your point, there is much more of a market in most any other
area
| of communications, marine communications alone would be a larger market
| share... police/ambulance/fire radios probably are a larger share!!!
| Aircraft radios?
|
| But, it would be better to market to gov't, industry, military, public
| service, etc... your point is well taken...
|
| Right... and this design approach might or might not be attractive to
| them, given their specific needs.
|
| You wrote earlier today of the new generation of youngsters, with
| access to better equipment, at today's colleges. That might be a good
| next place for you to consider floating this idea... you might find an
| EE professor who would consider it to be an attractive design project
| for a graduate-level (or high-undergrad) class in RF and electronic
| design.
|
| While you're there, you might also want to see if you could persuade
| somebody in the business school tackle the other aspects of such a
| venture... a market analysis, and a business-case justification.
|
| For any such design to fly, it's going to have to make both technical
| sense, and economic sense... as defined by the people you expect to
| have buy/use it.
|
| --
| Dave Platt AE6EO
| Hosting the Jade Warrior home page: http://www.radagast.org/jade-warrior
| I do _not_ wish to receive unsolicited commercial email, and I will
| boycott any company which has the gall to send me such ads!

Roy:

I have pointed out your EZNEC to the Ghz "Wireless WAN/LAN
Raiders"--"Wireless Cam Raiders"-- here...

Trust me, there are young minds attempting to design new antennas for
routers and tapping into wireless cams here....

I have seen some thought provoking ideas they are building... now the big
thing is "passive repeaters".... antennas to bend signals around houses
and down blocks... around sound walls, etc. But some are of even active
design... they sqeeze miles out of wireless router signal!!!!

These young guys can put some strange designs to work out of threaded rods,
washers, coffee cans, sheet metal, stovepipe, old 18"--6 foot aluminum
dishes, coathangers and bbq grills, short bits of copper wire soldered along
yardlong+ copper tubing, etc... EZNEC is there!!!

Farthest guy stays tapped in to the garage net here from his home 2+ miles
away... on a router/switch meant for home use!!!

My first antenna was a 120 ft long wire for sw--theirs is usually of a 2100
Mhz design!!!

Only thing I caution them of is high rf levels at these freqs--they have
little fear of microwaves until the dangers are made clear... they
constantly search ebay for microwave mosfets... when they mention ideas of a
PA out of a microwave oven--one does do some worry...

I built a crystal radio as my first project, didn't everyone back then? I
stand in awe....

Warmest regards,
John
--
Sit down the six-pack!!! STEP AWAY!!! ...and go do something...

"Roy Lewallen" wrote in message
...
| Joel Kolstad wrote:
| . . .
| How many of those 2.5 million hams possess a copy of EZNEC, I wonder?
:-)
|
| A miniscule fraction.
|
| I get many requests to contribute EZNEC for a door prize and gladly did
| so, quite a few times. Not a single one of the stamped, self-addressed
| post cards enclosed with the programs was ever returned, which I've
| interpreted to mean that the recipients most likely never used the
| program. I belive that the vast majority of amateurs not only don't have
| EZNEC, but wouldn't have any use for it if given one. I no longer
| contribute EZNEC, since there's no point in giving as a prize something
| there's high probability that the recipient doesn't want. On the
| positive side, there are enough EZNEC users to have allowed me to stay
| out of the cube farm for ten years now. And they're a great bunch of
folks.
|
| Roy Lewallen, W7EL