:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Nov 03 0632 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 October - 02 November 2014

Solar activity was at moderate to high levels on 27 - 30 October
before declining to low levels on 31 October - 02 November. Region
2192 (S12, L=248, class/area Fkc/2750 on 26 Oct) was the culprit for
a majority of the activity through 30 October. Early on 27 October,
the region produced an M7/3b flare at 27/0044 UTC. This was followed
by an M6/2b flare at 27/1009 UTC. At 27/1447 UTC, Region 2192
produced the largest event of the summary period, an X2/2b. The
region also produced a few weak M-class events on 27 October. 28
October saw three M-class events, the largest an M6 x-ray event at
28/0332 UTC. 29 - 30 October recorded a total of nine weak M-class
and numerous C-class events as Region 2192 approached the west limb.
Region 2192 was the largest observed sunspot region since 18
November 1990 and was responsible for a total of 73 C-class, 35
M-class and 6 X-class events. Remarkably, Region 2192 did not
produce any radiation storms or any significant Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during it's transit across the
disk.

By the end of 30 October through 02 November, a majority of the
activity originated from new Region 2201 (S05, L=086, class/area
Cai/050 on 02 Nov). Numerous low to moderate level C-class events
were observed from this region during that period, the largest a C7
x-ray event at 01/1646 UTC. Additional activity from Region 2201
included a C2/Sf flare at 30/1508 UTC with a Type II Sweep (1000
km/s), a C4/1n flare at 30 October with a Type II Sweep (691 km/s)
and a C3 x-ray event at 02/1703 UTC with a Type II Sweep (1443
km/s). The period concluded with a C9 x-ray event from a location
behind the NE limb.

Other activity included a large filament eruption between
01/0410-0600 UTC. A Hyder flare, associated with a large filament
eruption centered near S28E54, was observed in SDO/AIA imagery. The
eruption resulted in a C2 x-ray event at 01/0534 UTC with an
associated large CME off the SE limb, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2
coronagraph imagery at 01/0500 UTC. Subsequent analysis and
WSA-Enlil model output suggested the CME was directed well south and
east of the Sun-Earth line.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux observed at geosynchronous orbit
became enhanced after 01/1730 UTC and briefly reached the 10 pfu
threshold a few times from 02/2210-2245 UTC, but never for a
sustained period of time. At the time of the report, levels had
fallen to the 5-6 pfu range. The proton enhancement is believed to
be associated with the Hyder flare described above.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels on 27-28 October and 01-02 November. High levels
were exceeded on 29-31 October.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The
period began under the influence of a small, positive polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The ACE satellite observed
weak to modest solar wind speeds that ranged from about 325 - 450
km/s through 30 October. IMF Bt measurements recorded a steady field
that generally ranged between 3-8 nT while the Bz component varied
between +/- 7 nT. The phi angle reflected a mostly postive (away)
orientation through 30/0737 UTC. From 27 - 30 October, geomagnetic
activity was generally at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods early on 27 and 28 October.

A change in the phi angle orientation from a positive to a negative
(towards) sector was observed at 30/0738 UTC. A steady negative
orientation was maintained through 02/0151 UTC when phi varied
between negative and positive sectors through the remainder of the
period. With this sector change early on 30 October, Bt measurements
indicated an overall increase in the field ranging from about 3 nT
to a peak of 15 nT at 01/0630 UTC. Thereafter, total field gradually
declined to end the period at about 6 nT while Bz generally ranged
from +14 nT to -7 nT. Early on 31 October, wind speeds steadily
increased from 325 km/s to a peak of near 550 km/s at about 01/0900
UTC and ended the period at about 490 km/s. From 31 October to 02
November, geomagnetic activity was generally at quiet levels with
isolated unsettled periods.



Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
03 November - 29 November 2014

Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels with
isolated moderate activity through 10 November. The return of old
Region 2192 (S12, L-248) on or about 11 November is expected to see
an increase in activity to predominately low to moderate levels with
isolated high level activity. This is expected to persist through
about 23 November when old Reion 2192 exits the visible disk.

A chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exists from 11 - 23
November due to potential significant flare activity after the
return of old Region 2192.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be