:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Oct 31 0550 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
24 - 30 October 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels during the period. The two
numbered regions on the visible disk were Region 2603 (N13, L=340,
class/area Dao/080 on 26 October) and 2604 (N07, L=261, class/area
Bxo/010 on 29 October). Other activity included a slow moving
coronal mass ejection (CME) directed mostly south of the ecliptic
beginning at 30/1012 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. The source of the
CME was unclear and may be associated with magnetic re-connection
near S30E15. Preliminary analysis indicated a possible weak glancing
blow arrival around midday on 04 November. Further analysis is
currently underway.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels on 24-25 October and reached high levels from 26-30
October. The largest flux value of the period was 47,726 pfu
observed at 27/1530 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G3 (Strong) storm
levels. The period started off under the waning influence of a weak
isolated positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Solar wind speeds were mostly in the 380 km/s to 430 km/s range with
total field values between 5 nT and 10 nT and prolonged periods of
southward Bz. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active
levels on 24 October. Early on 25 October, total field began to rise
to a maximum of 21 nT at 25/1016 UTC while the Bz component
deflected southward to -17 nT indicating the onset of a co-rotating
interaction region. This was followed by a rise in solar wind speed
to around 750-830 km/s as a large, polar-connected, positive
polarity CH HSS moved into geoeffective position. Coronal hole
influence declined to the 530-680 km/s by midday on 27 October and
remained there until the end of the period. The geomagnetic field
responded with active to G3 (Strong) storm levels on 25 October,
active to G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 26 October, unsettled to G1
(Minor) storm levels on 27 and 29 October, unsettled to active
levels on 28 October, and quiet to active levels on 30 October.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
31 October - 26 November 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels
throughout the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate levels with high levels likely from 31
October-06 November, 12-19 November, and again from 22-26 November
due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels from 31 October-01 November, 11-15, and 19-26 November with
G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 13, 21-23, and 25 November and G2
(Moderate) storm levels likely on 21-22 November due to recurrent CH
HSS activity.