:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Feb 06 0538 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
30 January - 05 February 2017

Solar activity was very low through the period with only two B-class
flares observed from Regions 2631 (S05, L=113, class/area Bxo/010 on
31 January) and 2632 (N14, L=085, class/area Dao/060 on 02 February)
on 04 February. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were
observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels on 31 January and reached high levels on
30 January and again on 01-05 February. The largest flux of the
period was 22,414 pfu observed at 04/1820 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm conditions. The period began with solar wind
speeds near 400 km/s. By 30/1138 UTC, total field and solar wind
speed began to increase indicating the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region followed by a negative polarity coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). By 31/1153, total field reached a maximum of
17.2 nT while the solar wind speed reached a peak of 796 km/s at
31/2041 UTC. By 31/1600 UTC, total field had decreased to 5-6 nT
while the solar wind speed began to decline early on 02 February
until early on 05 February when another increase to near 630 km/s
was observed. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to
unsettled levels on 30 January and 04 February, quiet to active
levels on 02-03 and 05 February, and unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 31 January through 01 February.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 February - 04 March 2017

Solar activity is expected to be very low levels throughout the
period with a chance for C-class flares on 11-24 February with the
return of old Region 2628 (N12, L=174).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely
on 06-13, 16-19, 22-26 and 28 February - 04 March due to recurrent
CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet with unsettled to
active levels expected on 06-09,14-18, 22-25 and 27 February - 04
March with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms likely on 27 February and
01-02 March and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 28
February due to recurrent CH HSS activity.