Prior to the cessation of code testing for US amateur radio
license testing, there were a number of speculations on what
would happen in the amateur radio ranks. To see what really
happened I looked at www.handata.com information and selected
the 30-day period prior to 24 January 2007 (or 30 to 60 days
prior to end of code testing) and the 30-day period just after
23 February 2007:

FCC Action Ending 24 January 2007 Ending 24 March
2007
-------------------
---------------------- --------------------
New Licensees 1,342
2,941
No Longer Licensed 2,101 2,975

Class Changes 985
7,234
Callsign Changes 214
897
All Updates * 16,536
17,418

* Includes Renewals, Address Changes, etc.

30-day Period ending 24 March begins approximately 23 February
2007.
30-day Period ending 24 January begins approximately 24 December
2006.

The number of Updates, primarily Renewals, is about the same for
the
two periods. Expirations are about the same, allowing for the
perterbation of the year-end Holiday of Christmas and New Years
when no or little testing is done. It should be noted that
Expirations
are generally higher than the number of New amateurs entering. One
reason for the lower number of New Licensees in January may (or may
not) have been a "waiting period" between the announcement of the
FCC 06-178 R&O on code test elimination and it taking effect near
the end of February.

Most significant are the Class Changes indicating that major
activity
was Upgrades, a 7.3:1.0 ratio. Callsign Changes were less at about
a 4.2:1.0 ratio. License Class totals show the distribution of
Upgrades a bit better:

License Class As of 24 January
2007 As of 24 March 2007
----------------
--------------------- -------------------
Technician 310,195 (+870) 307,730 (-3,998)
Technician Plus 41,343 (-840) 39,242 (-1,208)
Novice 29,429 (-243) 28,892 (-291)
General 142,428 (-323) 147,186 (+5,129)
Advanced 76,889 (-335) 76,084 (-475)
Extra 111,423 (+6) 112,231 (+775)
Club 10,313 (+53) 10,402 (+56)
TOTAL 722,020 (-812) 721,767 (-12)

Total less Club 711,707 711,365

Numbers in parentheses indicate the change in class totals from the
start of that particular 30-day period.

There is a significant increase in the number of General Class
licensees through March and a near similar decline in numbers
of Technician Class indicating that many of those new Generals
probably came from the Technician Class.

All those in their 2-year Grace Period are included. Since we
don't
know if those are just letting their license lay until it expires
or are too busy right now or otherwise occupied, I am including
them
since the FCC allows them to pick up where they left off if they
decide to renew before that Grace Period is up.

73, Len AF6AY