Rather than carry on the fine old Usenet tradition of thread
hijacking, I'm going to start this one instead.

Elsewhere, an estimate from the ARRL was that 50% of the
licensed hams (Almost 360 thousand) are inactive.

50% That's an incredible number.

Also, it was noted that in response to a mass mailing of hams
in a locality, 50% of the mail came back as undeliverable.

I know as a whole, our average age is a bit high, but they
can't all be silent keys.

And I suspect equally, at the opposite end of that they can't
all be 19-20 year old newlyweds with no time for radio anymore.

So what happened to them? How did we lose 50% of our licensees?

Obviously a large number of people took the time, however short,
to learn (or memorize) enough to pass the test and get a license.

What caused them to lose interest?

Was it an equipment problem? Surely there should have been some
local ham offer to help them get set up.

Or was it a social problem?

Once they got their license, were they told they weren't "Real
Hams(tm)" because insert favorite reason here.

Were they ignored at meetings when they showed up?

Being beginners, were they helped? Or were they made to feel
inadequate when they asked a question because "Everyone knows
that."




--
Jeff-1.0
wa6fwi
http://www.foxsmercantile.com

On Sun, 20 Jul 2014 12:13:18 EDT, Foxs Mercantile
wrote:

Elsewhere, an estimate from the ARRL was that 50% of the
licensed hams (Almost 360 thousand) are inactive.

Also, it was noted that in response to a mass mailing of hams
in a locality, 50% of the mail came back as undeliverable.

In the mobility of today's society, filing FCC Form 605 (albeit
online at no cost) for change of address is one of the least priority
things that one must do when moving - 'cept for us who keep a P.O. Box
active (or someone who will receive and forward FCC mail for them).

Couple that today's USPS will only forward mail for 3 months rather
than the year that they used to.

I know as a whole, our average age is a bit high, but they
can't all be silent keys.

So what happened to them? How did we lose 50% of our licensees?

Obviously a large number of people took the time, however short,
to learn (or memorize) enough to pass the test and get a license.

What caused them to lose interest?

A large number of new hams get the license (and maybe buy a
China-knockoff) "in case they have to keep in touch with the family or
someone when the cellphone won't work" (as a goodly number of our
hospital employees and family members do). We won't see then on 20
meters working DX nor on 2-meter ragchews.

The scanner groups that I frequent have many postings about "in many
states it is illegal to have a VHF scanner in your vehicle unless you
have a ham license, so go out and get one, it's so easy nowadays".
This results in a class of licensees who never had the intent to be
on-the-air hams.

Granted that licensees in these categories are small in number, but
add them all up and they become a good part of the 50%.

Was it an equipment problem? Surely there should have been some
local ham offer to help them get set up.

Or was it a social problem?

Once they got their license, were they told they weren't "Real
Hams(tm)" because insert favorite reason here.

Our club - one of the largest "full service clubs" in the area - makes
a very concentrated effort NOT to do that, and we do sponsor upgrade
classes for folks who are so interested.

Were they ignored at meetings when they showed up?

Not at our club. We have a "greeter" (designated board member) at
each meeting to make newcomers welcome, and they are recognized from
the floor with applause.

Being beginners, were they helped? Or were they made to feel
inadequate when they asked a question because "Everyone knows
that."

We have an "Elmer circle" for an hour before each club meeting, and
it's well attended, even by "old timers" who see a need for keeping
current.

We also are the main VE testing group in Washington County (suburban
Portland, OR), so we encourage newly-passed hams to join our
activities. Many do and become very active hams.

73 de K2ASP - Phil Kane

From a Clearing in the Silicon Forest
Beaverton (Washington County) Oregon

On Sun, 20 Jul 2014 12:13:18 EDT, Foxs Mercantile
wrote:

Elsewhere, an estimate from the ARRL was that 50% of the
licensed hams (Almost 360 thousand) are inactive.

50% That's an incredible number.

Also, it was noted that in response to a mass mailing of hams
in a locality, 50% of the mail came back as undeliverable.

I know as a whole, our average age is a bit high, but they
can't all be silent keys.

And I suspect equally, at the opposite end of that they can't
all be 19-20 year old newlyweds with no time for radio anymore.

So what happened to them? How did we lose 50% of our licensees?

Obviously a large number of people took the time, however short,
to learn (or memorize) enough to pass the test and get a license.

What caused them to lose interest?

The magic of radio is gone. When most hams got their start in radio,
RF was fairly close to magic. Talking to someone half way around the
world was a real challenge. At the time, long distance telephone
calls were expensive and noisy. There were no cell phones or
internet. Ham radio equipment was mostly WWII conversions, home brew,
or expensive commercial equipment.

Today, we have the internet, VoIP, cell phones, commodity hardware,
and computahs. These have made radio much less of a challenge. Kids
interested in ham radio have asked me "Why would I want to get a radio
to talk to someone that I can more easily chat with on a computah?"
There's no longer any magic in talking to someone half way around the
world, when the average person could do better just picking up the
phone or sending an email.

Was it an equipment problem? Surely there should have been some
local ham offer to help them get set up.

Or was it a social problem?

Once they got their license, were they told they weren't "Real
Hams(tm)" because insert favorite reason here.

Were they ignored at meetings when they showed up?

Being beginners, were they helped? Or were they made to feel
inadequate when they asked a question because "Everyone knows
that."

About 10 years ago, we experienced a surge in membership in the local
radio clubs which coincided with the removal of the Morse code
requirement for licensing. When asked, most were interested in using
the phone patch on the repeater as a cheap cell phone.

Beginners were a different problem. They would usually join at age 14
or so, and become very active, enthusiastic, and interested in radio.
I mentored several of these new hams. Eventually, they discovered
girls, sports, cars, or something else, and were gone as fast as they
had arrived. The limiting factor seemed to be how well ham radio
might compete against girls, sports, and cars. I don't have a
solution for that problem.

Also, hams are getting older and dropping like flies. The average US
national death rate is about 8 deaths/1000/year. With 700,000
licensed hams, I would expect to lose:
700,000 / 1000 * 8 = 5,600 deaths/year
Since the FCC only updates their database when someone fails to renew,
it would take all of the 10 year license term for anyone to notice.
Assuming that death occurred in the middle of the license term,
that's:
5,600 * 5 = 28,000
hams that are inactive because they are dead at any given time. Since
the age distribution of ham operators tends to favor older hams, I
suspect that 28,000 might a rather conservative figure and the real
number is much higher.

ARRL membership tends to float around 22% of licensed hams.
http://frrl.wordpress.com/2012/01/21/700000-amateur-radio-operators-in-the-us-perhaps-the-real-number-is-157000/
I think one can consider ARRL membership to be more representative of
the number of active hams.

I just checked the FCC database for 5 local hams that have died in the
last 5 years or so. All are still listed as being licensed. One
shows an expired license. I wonder if the ARRL has a special price
for members that are silent keys?


--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

On 7/20/14, 11:13 AM, Foxs Mercantile wrote:
Elsewhere, an estimate from the ARRL was that 50% of the
licensed hams (Almost 360 thousand) are inactive.

50% That's an incredible number.

Also, it was noted that in response to a mass mailing of hams
in a locality, 50% of the mail came back as undeliverable.

To turn this around, the implication is that there are 180,000 active
hams in the US. Are there 3,600 active hams in your state? And what's
the definition of "active"? (Yes, I know that state population varies
widely, but it's an analysis helper.)

If the anecdotal evidence of a 50% return on a mailing is typical, that
means that 50% of the entries in the database don't even have a good
mailing address. But of the 50% that were successfully delivered, what
percent are active? This suggests that the percentage of active hams is
substantially less than 50%.

It would be interesting to know where the ARRL came up with that 50%
estimate. I don't consider them a particularly reliable or objective
source since it's in their interest to inflate the number of active hams.

73, Steve KB9X

On Sun, 20 Jul 2014 12:13:18 EDT, Foxs Mercantile
wrote:

50% That's an incredible number.

Indeed it is. In a typical organization, only ten percent of the
people who pay dues are actually members. The rest are subscribing to
the newsletter. One can expect the percentage of active members to be
higher when one has to pass a test to get in -- but fifty percent is
remarkable.

--
KC9TQX
joy beeson at comcast dot net

On 7/20/2014 12:13 PM, Foxs Mercantile wrote:
So what happened to them? How did we lose 50% of our licensees?


Personal observations over a 20 year period:

Dad is a die hard ham, the kids will get their license to make him happy
but don't use the radio.

Boy Scout merit badge, something to do at Summer Scout Camp.

Health problems.

Work gets in the way.

Family gets in the way.

Belongs to other groups and prefers to spend time doing those other
things the most.

Retired, moved to assisted living, can't put up an antenna.

Lives in a condo or apartment, antenna restrictions, HT doesn't cut it
indoors.

Got license, went to college, lost interest.

Arrested

Went to a tech class crash course, got license with 10 - 20 of their
friends, didn't go any further.

Too busy working for a living.

On tour of duty in Iraq, etc.

Taking care of a sick loved one.

Doomsday Preppers (end of the world as we know it) who don't participate
with anyone but an inner core faction. Radio is on a shelf or in a
faraday cage waiting for the big one.

SK, record stuck in database for next 10 years +/-, next of kin not
inclined to notify FCC.

CBers who get their license, run across a few lids on the local
repeater, get disgusted and go back to CB.

Lost their job, had to sell all their gear to feed the kids.

CERT teams and similar groups that only use ham radio when activated or
training. Do not participate in ARES/RACES or Skywarn.

Emergency Management and NWS personnel who get their ham license to be
able to communicate with their ARES, RACES, Skywarn teams but don't do
anything else with amateur radio.

Steve
N2UBP

On Sunday, July 20, 2014 12:13:18 PM UTC-4, Foxs Mercantile wrote:
Rather than carry on the fine old Usenet tradition of thread

hijacking, I'm going to start this one instead.
50% That's an incredible number.
So what happened to them? How did we lose 50% of our licensees?

Was it an equipment problem? Surely there should have been some

local ham offer to help them get set up.



Or was it a social problem?

Once they got their license, were they told they weren't "Real
Hams(tm)" because insert favorite reason here.

Let me give a little anecdote here.

Shortly after I got my license, but not on HF yet,
I was listening to two hams on AM chatting.

One gave his email address, and I copied it,
Then sent him an email QSL

My callsign in those days was KB3EIA,
And I typo'd it in my email, putting in
KB3IEA instead. Dyslexics Untie!

I got a scathing post in return, the
guy looked up my callsign, and
saw it didn't match my name.

Said he didn't know what my game was,
but he was going to turn me into the F.C.C. for
giving him a incorrect callsign in the email.

Not one to back down from that sort of silliness,
I told him of the typo, and to go ahead and
report me, not knowing that the F.C.C. had
jurisdiction over email.

But imagine the response of some other
folks. To be threatened for a typo.

Were they ignored at meetings when they showed up?

We're pretty good at talking to new folks,
I try to always say hello

Being beginners, were they helped? Or were they made to feel
inadequate when they asked a question because
"Everyone knows that."

This becomes a problem. Everyone wants to be thought of
as proficient. One of the funniest examples I've
ever been involved in was during a soldering class
I was teaching.

We had an expert there. As soon as I started,
he launched into a diatribe about the awful
soldering iron I was using - it was the 150 dollar kind
not the complete rework station - then
insinuated himself - gonna show them how it's really done.

Then he lectured me a bit on how my iron was too hot.
Turned it down to a "proper" setting.
Then he went on a 5 minute exposition of how the
sponge wasn't wet properly. Then spent another 5
minutes tinning the thing.

The entire group was becoming very uncomfortable,
and embarrassed for me. So he turned
my class back over to me.

I looked at the iron setting, it was exactly as I had it.
So I asked him if I had bumped it, because it
was where I left it. If I hadn't been there, they would
have all been too afraid to attempt to solder,
lest they be publicly shamed.
Ironically, I learned soldering under the "gentle" guidance
of a retired marine who insisted that everything we did in
electronics, including soldering be done to
mil spec standards. I know how to solder better than
just about anyone out there.

That's a long winded way of saying yes, Hams who are better than
other hams - for whatever reason - scare noobs
away.

Even for emergency ops, I see hams who are better than others.
In another group I'm in now, some Emergency op type in Canada
was lambasting Hams for putting in a form in a forms program that
he said wasn't an official form for any served agency he knew of.
The things are in XML format, which means anyone can make
whatever form they need to make.

And just like my solder buddy trying to take over my class,
it wasn't his program to dictate what forms are in it.
And of course, if he didn't like that form, he could just not use it.

In addition, there is perhaps some similarity to volunteer firemen,
which many places do not have enough people to fill the needed slots.
With all the certifications and classes, it becomes more difficult
to get enough people, then some of the volunteer firemen get
upset because they think no one cares any more.

Which can become a positive feedback loop, as anger can
manifest itself as seeming superiority. Which keeps people away.

Bill and Ted said it best - "Be excellent to each other".

On 7/20/2014 1:30 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Sun, 20 Jul 2014 12:13:18 EDT, Foxs
wrote:
What caused them to lose interest?

Beginners were a different problem. They would usually join at age 14
or so, and become very active, enthusiastic, and interested in radio.
I mentored several of these new hams. Eventually, they discovered
girls, sports, cars, or something else, and were gone as fast as they
had arrived. The limiting factor seemed to be how well ham radio
might compete against girls, sports, and cars. I don't have a
solution for that problem.

Once young men get a whiff of perfume and gasoline, they're gone.

73,

Bill, W1AC

--
Bill Horne
(Remove QRM from my address to write to me directly)

Bill Horne wrote:
On 7/20/2014 1:30 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Sun, 20 Jul 2014 12:13:18 EDT, Foxs
wrote:
What caused them to lose interest?

Beginners were a different problem. They would usually join at age 14
or so, and become very active, enthusiastic, and interested in radio.
I mentored several of these new hams. Eventually, they discovered
girls, sports, cars, or something else, and were gone as fast as they
had arrived. The limiting factor seemed to be how well ham radio
might compete against girls, sports, and cars. I don't have a
solution for that problem.

Once young men get a whiff of perfume and gasoline, they're gone.

73,


Don't forget beer! I was studying for the UK licence when I was 14 or so
and quickly lost interest when I discovered lasses and booze. Much more
interesting for the teenage boy, sadly, than radio theory and electronics,
especially when beer and girls were combined at house parties...

Still, I came back to radio eventually, 18 years later!

--
Stephen Thomas Cole // Sent from my iPhone