How many old people are hams? How many young people? If there are not
enough young people to replace the old and dying hams amateur radio will
become extinct. There will always be a few new people, but if there is not
sufficient mass to sustain the numbers, it will die. Manufacturers will
either go out of business or build other things people want to buy.
Governments will give frequency spectrum up to the highest bidder and that
will not be amateur radio. Young people today have cell phones, computers,
the internet. They have absolutely no need for amateur radio to communicate
with friends around the world. To them it is as exciting as watching paint
dry. CW would put them to sleep. Look around you, how many young people are
hams? If not around 600,000 young hams, ham radio is history because in
around 10-20 years most existing hams will be at room temperature.

"M Peraaho" wrote in message
...

How many old people are hams? How many young people? If there are not
enough young people to replace the old and dying hams amateur radio will
become extinct.

Since the FCC licensing system does not include DOB, it is hard to say for
sure (and I'm not sure if you could cross reference the amateur database
with, say, the ULS/FRB databases, which I do not recall if they contain DOB
info anyway.)

So, I would say, the only thing we have to go on is anecdotal evidence. My
observations have been that the No-Code Tech license brought in a lot of
"younger" hams, but even so, these hams were in their 30's and 40's. Almost
all of the newer hams in our local club tend to be codeless techs, some move
to HF, others do not. At field day these days, I rarely see anyone under the
age of 30, unless its a family member of another participant.

I would say that most HF operators tend to be older, because, mainly, it
helps to own your own home to set up a decent HF station. You (usually)
can't string an 80m dipole, install a tower, etc. on your landlord's
property. Not to mention PO your downstairs neighbor when you start coming
thru their TV set. Simple economics prevale: older men are more established,
tend to own their own homes, etc.


There will always be a few new people, but if there is not sufficient mass
to sustain the numbers, it will die. Manufacturers will either go out of
business or build other things people want to buy.

Keep in mind manufacturers address other market segments too, so it is
unlikely they will go out of business, although they may stop offering
amateur-related gear at some point where it becomes economically unfeasible
to at least recoup their R&D, plant, and manufacturing expenses. Plus they
build gear not only for US amateurs but other countries as well.


Governments will give frequency spectrum up to the highest bidder and that
will not be amateur radio.

Someone else can comment on this, I do not follow the spectrum allocation
wars. Since most consumer-oriented spectrum is on the higher frequency
bands, I would guess the demand for spectrum 2m would be minimal. Can't
say that for sure though, that's just a "gut feeling" on my part, and
someone who is more "up" on spectrum demands could post for sure.


Young people today have cell phones, computers, the internet. They have
absolutely no need for amateur radio to communicate with friends around
the world. To them it is as exciting as watching paint dry. CW would put
them to sleep.

As I've stated in my previous postings, I do not think that CW (in the form
of the Element 1A licensing requirement) has been a serious deterrent to a
statistically significant amount of people over the past 6 years.

If you look at licensing statistics from Speroni's site.

The (no-code) Tech license was introduced in 92. For roughly 5 years, we saw
an upshoot in licensees, until 97, where things started to taper off again.
The "pool" of new people started to taper off, and we were unable to
maintain the growth. For roughly a year, licenses hovered around 674k.

Elements 1b and 1c were eliminated in 2000. Again, we saw an uptick in new
licensees, until April 03 -- roughly 12 years to the month that the Codeless
Tech license was introduced. I do not believe in coincidences -- 12 years
(10 years + 2 year grace period) -- and I believe these stats would suggest
that the Tech license simply delayed the inevitable downturn in licensees we
would have seen earlier.

From 2000 until April 03, we added 11k new licensees. Then the downward
slope has started, and over the past 40 months we have lost 32k licensees.

It is my belief that most people who were interested in HF operation, but
were turned off because of the code test, already got licensed in the
2000-2003 timeframe. Yes, there are *some* people who cannot pass a 5wpm
code test. However, these people are few and far between.

A 5wpm code test requires little more than rote memorization of a table, and
then a mental table-lookup during the testing. This is dramatically
different from the 13 and 20wpm code tests, where you have to "hear" entire
letters or words even, in order to have a QSO. (A good friend of mine copies
CW at close to 30wpm, and can have a conversation with me in his shack at
the same time, while listening to the other operator in the background. When
I asked him how he did it, he told me he hears whole 'words', and his
subconcious copies the conversation while he can focus on other things.
That's a "skill" it takes a very long time to develop. Oh, BTW, he's 38, and
has been licensed since he was a teenager.)


Look around you, how many young people are hams? If not around 600,000
young hams, ham radio is history because in around 10-20 years most
existing hams will be at room temperature.

Many hobbies have become passee over the years, and I believe ham radio is
eventually going to become one of them. Not many folks play horseshoes
today, for instance. The death of ham radio is neither good nor bad, it
simply "is". I suspect ham radio will be around for quite a few years to
come... certainly, it will not go away in my lifetime (assuming I live to
the average age of 72, that would be 30 years from now). Amateur Radio will
not die with a bang. It will die with a wimper, and slowly fade away over
time.

73
KH6HZ

Hans, I respectfully disagree. What we PERCEIVE to be the focus of ham
radio will shift ... calling CQ for hours on end while I could get into a
chat room in seconds and achieve the same result will go away. The HF bands
will slowly dwindle as waiting for the sunspot cycle to rev up fast loses
its charm when I can pick up a cellphone and have digital clear
communications any time of the day or night.

So we refocus on what DOES fire kids' rockets. Making robots and running
them with digitally coded RF. Setting up the house so you can turn on
lights and appliances with DTMF. Talking to astronauts in space. Satellite
communications.

Perhaps the brain trust in Newington is woefully late in calling a summit
meeting of the brethren and sistren to sort this all out. Perhaps Wayne
Greene was right after all, that the ARRL has long since outlived its
usefulness, and the structure set up by Maxim is in the final stages of
crumbling away. Perhaps lots of things.

But amateur radio (and perhaps we need a new term for THAT, too) will live
on, at least in the generation that I am teaching, but only with a totally
new focus and dedication.

Jim





"KØHB" wrote in message
ink.net...





I believe that the last generation of hams in the USA has already been
born, and it has nothing to do with how fast they can send beeps.

Radio is no longer magic to young people, and magic is what made it worth
the effort.

73, de Hans, K0HB
Past Grand Master Magician