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#21
December 28th 06, 03:55 AM
posted to rec.radio.amateur.policy
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So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
Bill Sohl wrote: wrote in message ups.com... Robert Casey wrote: Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples' predictions on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came closest? I know that I didn't. Hello Robert, SNIP Here's an update on the "when will FCC drop Element 1?" pool. This means the effective date of the FCC action that completely eliminates Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio license in the USA. Note how almost all the predicted dates and all of the *second* predicted dates have already passed: WA2SI: September 13, 2003 (first prediction) KF6TPT: September 29, 2003 KC8EPO: December 31, 2003 K2UNK: January 1, 2004 (first prediction) K2ASP: March 15, 2004 AA2QA: April 1, 2004 N2EY: April 15, 2004 N3KIP: May 1, 2004 (first prediction) KC8PMX: July 1, 2004 WA2ISE: August 1, 2004 K3LT: September 15, 2004 WK3C: December 30, 2004 N4PGW: May 22, 2005 N8UZE: July 1, 2005 (first prediction) N3KIP: December 31, 2005 (second prediction) N8UZE: January 31, 2006 (second prediction) N2EY: March 1, 2006 (second prediction) KB9RQZ: April 1, 2006 K2UNK: July 1, 2006 (second prediction) AB2RC: July 1, 2007 KB3EIA: July 5, 2007 W5TIT: June 1, 2008 WA2SI: Complete elimination not within the foreseeable future (second prediction) Right now it looks like AB2RC is the winner, with K2UNK a close second. Even though K2UNK's date is closer to the announcement date, the rule states "effective date of the FCC action that completely eliminates Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio license in the USA". Which cannot be any earlier than January 19, 2007, and will probably be late February or even early March 2007 if the 60 day rule is in effect. Hi Jim and the few others that can still post a mmessage in RRAP that indicates some common sense, logic and respect. Hello Bill! Hey, a close second... :-) Very close - but each day it gets closer to AB2RC's date. Who'd a thought the FCC would footdrag as long as they did. Not me! Heck, my *second* predicted date was almost a year ago, and my first prediction almost three years ago. When the treaty changed way back in 2003, the announcement on the ARRL website said the process could take as long as two years. I thought that was way too long. Turns out it's already more than 3-1/2 years! Maybe I should start a new pool, in which people get to predict the growth or decline in the number of US amateurs by a certain date after the new rules..... How about a pool on when the inmates running the RRAP asylum will finalkly wear themselves out. I can't believe these characters have the time which they devooote to their infintile and sophmoric postings. The moderated version of rrap will come on line soon. That will be a different game entirely. I suspect that, given the recent "omnibus" R&O and the code test R&O, we will not see more changes to Part 97 for a long time. Cheers to the goodguys like Jim who have stuck it out. Thanks, but my time here is limited. I'll continue to post the ARS license numbers and make some occasional comments, but the noise level is so high that I read perhaps 2% of what is posted to rrap. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all. Agreed. And a better 2007! 73 de Jim, N2EY |
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#22
December 28th 06, 03:55 AM
posted to rec.radio.amateur.policy
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So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
Bill Sohl wrote: Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all. Bill K2UNK Hi, Bill. Merry RamaHannaQuanzMas and a Happy New Year to you! |
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#23
December 28th 06, 04:03 AM
posted to rec.radio.amateur.policy
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So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
Who'd a thought the FCC would footdrag as long as they did. indeed I assume it was someone pleasing the ARRL More likely the FCC guys just ran out of other things to take care of, and finally got around to it... |
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#24
December 28th 06, 04:25 PM
posted to rec.radio.amateur.policy
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So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
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#25
December 28th 06, 06:10 PM
posted to rec.radio.amateur.policy
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So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
Mike Coslo wrote:
wrote in ups.com: Bill Sohl wrote: wrote in message ups.com... Robert Casey wrote: Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples' predictions on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came closest? I know that I didn't. Hello Robert, SNIP Here's an update on the "when will FCC drop Element 1?" pool. This means the effective date of the FCC action that completely eliminates Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio license in the USA. Note how almost all the predicted dates and all of the *second* predicted dates have already passed: WA2SI: September 13, 2003 (first prediction) KF6TPT: September 29, 2003 KC8EPO: December 31, 2003 K2UNK: January 1, 2004 (first prediction) K2ASP: March 15, 2004 AA2QA: April 1, 2004 N2EY: April 15, 2004 N3KIP: May 1, 2004 (first prediction) KC8PMX: July 1, 2004 WA2ISE: August 1, 2004 K3LT: September 15, 2004 WK3C: December 30, 2004 N4PGW: May 22, 2005 N8UZE: July 1, 2005 (first prediction) N3KIP: December 31, 2005 (second prediction) N8UZE: January 31, 2006 (second prediction) N2EY: March 1, 2006 (second prediction) KB9RQZ: April 1, 2006 K2UNK: July 1, 2006 (second prediction) AB2RC: July 1, 2007 KB3EIA: July 5, 2007 W5TIT: June 1, 2008 WA2SI: Complete elimination not within the foreseeable future (second prediction) Right now it looks like AB2RC is the winner, with K2UNK a close second. Even though K2UNK's date is closer to the announcement date, the rule states "effective date of the FCC action that completely eliminates Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio license in the USA". Which cannot be any earlier than January 19, 2007, and will probably be late February or even early March 2007 if the 60 day rule is in effect. Hi Jim and the few others that can still post a mmessage in RRAP that indicates some common sense, logic and respect. Hello Bill! Hey, a close second... :-) Very close - but each day it gets closer to AB2RC's date. If only I had specified "announcement date", Bill would have won. Who'd a thought the FCC would footdrag as long as they did. Not me! Heck, my *second* predicted date was almost a year ago, and my first prediction almost three years ago. When the treaty changed way back in 2003, the announcement on the ARRL website said the process could take as long as two years. I thought that was way too long. Turns out it's already more than 3-1/2 years! Maybe I should start a new pool, in which people get to predict the growth or decline in the number of US amateurs by a certain date after the new rules..... How about a pool on when the inmates running the RRAP asylum will finalkly wear themselves out. I can't believe these characters have the time which they devooote to their infintile and sophmoric postings. The moderated version of rrap will come on line soon. That will be a different game entirely. I suspect that, given the recent "omnibus" R&O and the code test R&O, we will not see more changes to Part 97 for a long time. Cheers to the goodguys like Jim who have stuck it out. Thanks, but my time here is limited. I'll continue to post the ARS license numbers and make some occasional comments, but the noise level is so high that I read perhaps 2% of what is posted to rrap. Hey Jim, Hello Mike Since I started using Xnews, rrap is nice and clean. I shall look for Xnews. Been using Googlegroups and searching by various words and callsigns. Still an incredible amount of noise. I'm curious about the "moderated" version of rrap. Will it be fun enough for the members? Depends on what the members consider "fun". I've seen enough in here to know that part of the fun is in the namecalling. For some. Not for me. Even if one doesn't engage in it, they probably get something out of it. There *is* a certain satisfaction to pointing out when someone's statements are unsupported by facts and/or logic. It just got way out of hand the past year. What I saw happen was a war of words in which a few would take over every thread. And regarding the pool, I still say let's not call it finished until its finished. I didn't call it finished. I simply said that AB2RC looks like the winner. If the effective date is July 2, 2007, you and AB2RC will be tied. After that date, you'll be the frontrunner. But July is a ways off. Even if it takes FCC 60 days to get the R&O in the Federal Register, and even if the rules don't become effective until 60 days after that, we're still talking late April or so. I think it will happen a lot sooner. The really interesting thing will be how the license numbers will be affected. Have a great New Year! You, too. Straight Key Night starts on Sunday evening. 73 de Jim, N2EY |
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#26
December 28th 06, 06:42 PM
posted to rec.radio.amateur.policy
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Change in ARS numbers
My prediction is that on the one year anniversary of the implementation that
the total numbers of of ARS licenses (excluding the categories that N2EY excludes for consistency) will not differ from the numbers on the implementation date by more than 1% either direction (plus or minus). Anyone else? You can pick either "+" or "-" or "+/-". It must also be a whole percentage not a fraction. N8UZE, +/- 1% In addition, it is my belief that "growth" won't really occur until the "cell phone substitute" hams have let their license expire. Although cell phones have been around for awhile now, they didn't really get affordable on a family basis until roughly the year 2000. So that means little to no growth until roughly the year 2010 in my opinion. At that time we will also see the last of the Novice licenses virtually disappear as they will either have upgraded or allowed their license to lapse. There may be a few that continue to renew at that level but it will be few and far between. Dee, N8UZE |
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#27
December 28th 06, 07:48 PM
posted to rec.radio.amateur.policy
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Change in ARS numbers
Dee Flint wrote:
My prediction is that on the one year anniversary of the implementation that the total numbers of of ARS licenses (excluding the categories that N2EY excludes for consistency) will not differ from the numbers on the implementation date by more than 1% either direction (plus or minus). Let's spell it out: One calendar year after Element 1 is completely removed as a US amateur license requirement, the change in the number of current, unexpired amateur radio licenses issued by FCC will be the following: N8UZE: Between 1% less and 1% more N2EY: Between 1% more and 2% more When the change becomes effective, my postings to "ARS License Numbers" will include comparisons to the effective date. Anyone else? You can pick either "+" or "-" or "+/-". It must also be a whole percentage not a fraction. N8UZE, +/- 1% In addition, it is my belief that "growth" won't really occur until the "cell phone substitute" hams have let their license expire. Although cell phones have been around for awhile now, they didn't really get affordable on a family basis until roughly the year 2000. So that means little to no growth until roughly the year 2010 in my opinion. At that time we will also see the last of the Novice licenses virtually disappear as they will either have upgraded or allowed their license to lapse. There may be a few that continue to renew at that level but it will be few and far between. I think the loss of "honeydew hams" will be more gradual. Around here, their numbers really became significant in the early 1980s. Some went on to become much more involved in amateur radio, others did not. And IMHO, cell phone prices really began to drop about 1995 or so. There were probably other effects from changes in the test requirements, etc. What all this means is that the expiration dates will be all over the map. And not all will simply let the license expire, because it's so easy to renew. The AH0A website has listings of new and renewed licenses per month. Will be interesting to see how those numbers change, too. It has been six years and eight months since FCC stopped issuing new Novice and Advanced licenses. In that time, we've seen a much more dramatic drop in the number of Novices than in the number of Advanceds. Whether that is due to expirations or upgrades is a good question. In the case of Novices, however, the number is far above what would be expected if the licenses were all simply expiring. Perhaps some Novices are renewing with the idea of upgrading "someday". 73 de Jim, N2EY |
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#28
December 28th 06, 09:33 PM
posted to rec.radio.amateur.policy
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Change in ARS numbers
wrote in message ups.com... Dee Flint wrote: My prediction is that on the one year anniversary of the implementation that the total numbers of of ARS licenses (excluding the categories that N2EY excludes for consistency) will not differ from the numbers on the implementation date by more than 1% either direction (plus or minus). Let's spell it out: One calendar year after Element 1 is completely removed as a US amateur license requirement, the change in the number of current, unexpired amateur radio licenses issued by FCC will be the following: N8UZE: Between 1% less and 1% more N2EY: Between 1% more and 2% more When the change becomes effective, my postings to "ARS License Numbers" will include comparisons to the effective date. Sounds good to me. Shall I keep track of the people in the pool or would you prefer to? Anyone else? You can pick either "+" or "-" or "+/-". It must also be a whole percentage not a fraction. N8UZE, +/- 1% In addition, it is my belief that "growth" won't really occur until the "cell phone substitute" hams have let their license expire. Although cell phones have been around for awhile now, they didn't really get affordable on a family basis until roughly the year 2000. So that means little to no growth until roughly the year 2010 in my opinion. At that time we will also see the last of the Novice licenses virtually disappear as they will either have upgraded or allowed their license to lapse. There may be a few that continue to renew at that level but it will be few and far between. I think the loss of "honeydew hams" will be more gradual. Around here, their numbers really became significant in the early 1980s. Some went on to become much more involved in amateur radio, others did not. And IMHO, cell phone prices really began to drop about 1995 or so. There were probably other effects from changes in the test requirements, etc. What all this means is that the expiration dates will be all over the map. And not all will simply let the license expire, because it's so easy to renew. The AH0A website has listings of new and renewed licenses per month. Will be interesting to see how those numbers change, too. It has been six years and eight months since FCC stopped issuing new Novice and Advanced licenses. In that time, we've seen a much more dramatic drop in the number of Novices than in the number of Advanceds. Whether that is due to expirations or upgrades is a good question. In the case of Novices, however, the number is far above what would be expected if the licenses were all simply expiring. Perhaps some Novices are renewing with the idea of upgrading "someday". 73 de Jim, N2EY Still the Novice drop is pretty steep. Either way, I think the drop will be pretty much done by 2010 one way or another. The "cell phone substitute" hams are a little harder to get a handle on. In 1995, I knew a fair number of people who had them BUT only one, not one for each family member. Of course this could have varied in different parts of the country. Again, I think that drop will be pretty much done by 2010 also. It could be earlier though and that would be a good thing. I selected 2010 as a conservative point in time in my opinion. Dee, N8UZE |
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#29
December 28th 06, 10:55 PM
posted to rec.radio.amateur.policy
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Change in ARS numbers
"Dee Flint" wrote
My prediction is that on the one year anniversary of the implementation that the total numbers of of ARS licenses (excluding the categories that N2EY excludes for consistency) will not differ from the numbers on the implementation date by more than 1% either direction (plus or minus). Anyone else? You can pick either "+" or "-" or "+/-". It must also be a whole percentage not a fraction. N8UZE, +/- 1% Speroni doesn't have final figures for December. Using November as a baseline, there are 657k hams. Since April '03 (43 months) there has been a net loss of 30k hams, or roughly 700/mo. A 1% loss would be 6600. 700*12=8400. Or, 1.25% I would conclude that, on the face, your guess is probably accurate. I would guess more 0 to -1%. I doubt you will see a positive 1% growth. In addition, it is my belief that "growth" won't really occur until the "cell phone substitute" hams have let their license expire. Although cell phones have been around for awhile now, they didn't really get affordable on a family basis until roughly the year 2000. So that means little to no growth until roughly the year 2010 in my opinion. At that time we will also see the last of the Novice licenses virtually disappear as they will either have upgraded or allowed their license to lapse. There may be a few that continue to renew at that level but it will be few and far between. I do not think you will see any "growth" at all. I think numbers will continue to decline, and then "bottom out" at a minimum number. Once that point is reached, the number will remain relatively the same, +/- a few thousand, depending on renewal/expiration cycles. I do not think you will see this happen until sometime around 2012. 73 KH6HZ |
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#30
December 28th 06, 11:31 PM
posted to rec.radio.amateur.policy
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Change in ARS numbers
Dee Flint wrote:
wrote in message ups.com... Dee Flint wrote: My prediction is that on the one year anniversary of the implementation that the total numbers of of ARS licenses (excluding the categories that N2EY excludes for consistency) will not differ from the numbers on the implementation date by more than 1% either direction (plus or minus). Let's spell it out: One calendar year after Element 1 is completely removed as a US amateur license requirement, the change in the number of current, unexpired amateur radio licenses issued by FCC will be the following: N8UZE: Between 1% less and 1% more N2EY: Between 1% more and 2% more When the change becomes effective, my postings to "ARS License Numbers" will include comparisons to the effective date. Sounds good to me. Shall I keep track of the people in the pool or would you prefer to? Be my guest, Dee. I'll take care of the ARS license numbers. Anyone else? You can pick either "+" or "-" or "+/-". It must also be a whole percentage not a fraction. N8UZE, +/- 1% In addition, it is my belief that "growth" won't really occur until the "cell phone substitute" hams have let their license expire. Although cell phones have been around for awhile now, they didn't really get affordable on a family basis until roughly the year 2000. So that means little to no growth until roughly the year 2010 in my opinion. At that time we will also see the last of the Novice licenses virtually disappear as they will either have upgraded or allowed their license to lapse. There may be a few that continue to renew at that level but it will be few and far between. I think the loss of "honeydew hams" will be more gradual. Around here, their numbers really became significant in the early 1980s. Some went on to become much more involved in amateur radio, others did not. And IMHO, cell phone prices really began to drop about 1995 or so. There were probably other effects from changes in the test requirements, etc. What all this means is that the expiration dates will be all over the map. And not all will simply let the license expire, because it's so easy to renew. The AH0A website has listings of new and renewed licenses per month. Will be interesting to see how those numbers change, too. It has been six years and eight months since FCC stopped issuing new Novice and Advanced licenses. In that time, we've seen a much more dramatic drop in the number of Novices than in the number of Advanceds. Whether that is due to expirations or upgrades is a good question. In the case of Novices, however, the number is far above what would be expected if the licenses were all simply expiring. Perhaps some Novices are renewing with the idea of upgrading "someday". 73 de Jim, N2EY Still the Novice drop is pretty steep. Either way, I think the drop will be pretty much done by 2010 one way or another. When I first read that, 2010 seemed a long long way off. Now I realize it's only three years! The "cell phone substitute" hams are a little harder to get a handle on. In 1995, I knew a fair number of people who had them BUT only one, not one for each family member. Of course this could have varied in different parts of the country. Yup. Main point it that it's not some hard-line date, but a gradual effect. Again, I think that drop will be pretty much done by 2010 also. It could be earlier though and that would be a good thing. I selected 2010 as a conservative point in time in my opinion. We shall see! 73 de Jim, N2EY |
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