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#31
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Rules:
1) Predict amount of change in ARS numbers between the IMPLEMENTATION date of the R&O for elimination of code testing and one year from that date. 2) Calculation of the number of licenses will be done by N2EY under the same principals that he uses now to calculate the number of licenses. 3) You must select whole numbers for your percentage. 4) You may select positive or negative percentages. 5) You may select a range but that range may not exceed a total of 4%. Note that your average will be used to determine who is closest. If the actual change is outside the range of everyone's guesses then the person whose limit is closest will be the winner. 6) You must submit your guess no later than six months after the IMPLEMENTATION date of the R&O. Guesses submitted: N8UZE: 1% less to 1% more N2EY: 1% more to 2% more KH6HZ: 1% less to 0% change. Anyone else? Note if your guess doesn't show up on the list within a week, it may mean that my ISP is blocking it or that you are on my blocked senders list. You may still participate but you will have to have your guess submitted by someone who is not blocked. Dee, N8UZE |
#32
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From: Dave Heil on Wed, Dec 27 2006 10:22 am
John Smith I wrote: Dave Heil wrote: Unfortunately, none of those things will help in obtaining an amateur radio license of any kind. I'm likewise busting a gut, "John". There's always someone who is up for a challenge. "Gettysburg" Address, "John". Dave K8MN You didn't give the street or house number of that Gettysburg address. How could you miss that? Tsk, tsk. And, FINALLY, neither will an autistic talent like "code tapping" assist one in gaining an amateur ticket. Neither learning or using the Morse Code has ever been an "autistic talent" in any way, "John". It is a developed skill, like typing, shooting, batting, throwing or a myriad of other talents. To those of us who entered the Big Leagues of HF Radio over a half century ago, the "AUTISTIC TALENT" metaphor DOES have CORRECT merit. That it bugs the **** out of you is just too band, ainit? :-) Note: "Metaphor" is NOT the same as "semaphore." If you don't like others waving a metaphor around, TS on you. It ain't no crime. Finally, CW is consigned to the trash heap with sword swallowing--CW, a skill whose time has come, and gone ... Sorry, "John", Morse Code is not being consigned to any trash heap. It is used daily in making thousands of contacts by radio amateurs. Really? I thought RADIOS were needed first...? You mean that ALL one needs is closing and opening a circuit in the proper morse manner? Wow! What a mode! Tell us what OTHER radio services still use morse code for communications. [that should be easy...there ain't none] Maritime radio was the first biggie user of radio and nowadays they use Voice and Data...Voice on VHF in harbors and inland waterways, on HF SSB on open ocean. Maritimers began with morsemanship because that's all they had back in the prehistory of radio. That changed. Maritimers tossed morsemanship in the trash heap, the dumpster (those are more metaphors, Dave, don't get all hissy fit on it). Even the US CG stopped monitoring 500 KHz years ago. However, it felt as if I was just learning it to get the ticket, would immediately attempt to forget it after, would certainly NEVER use it, and was darn "pi$$ed off" at being forced to do it just to get the dern ticket!!! Perhaps you just needed an attitude adjustment, "John". I learned it in its most fundamental form, by the sound of each letter, in Scouting. Wow! In Scouting! Oh, my, I was never in the Scouts. My uniform was REAL and the first duty was "closing with and destroying the enemy." shrug Never learned any morsemanship in the Army...they weren't teaching it to anyone but Field Radio MOS students then. The US Military dropped morsemanship requirements for military communications decades ago... I learned higher speeds just in order to get an amateur ticket. "Ticket?" To what? Ride the airwaves? See a performance of some "No kids, no lids, no space cadet" morseman? To see a sporting event featuring Nancy Kott (in golden gloves) up against a no-coder? :-) I never had to learn any morsemanship in 1952, 1962, 1972, 1982, 1992, 2002...for work or play. shrug I got a Commercial radio operator license (First Class right from the start) in 1956...a half century ago (plus a half year). Helped get me started in Real radio (not with a bunch of amateurs), earning a living and having lots of fun doing the work. I'd already worked three years on spanning the Pacific Ocean on HF. With Big radio equipment. Amateur stuff would somehow "teach me" such things via a federal amateur license? I wasn't going to let anything stand in the way of my obtaining an amateur radio license. Wow! Big Dave doesn't let ANYTHING stand in HIS way! :-) Big Dave is the Mighty Macho Morseman...unstoppable in his refusual to recognize others having a different opinion than his godly wisdom... Finally, I used it, became better at it and enjoyed it. I've been enjoying its use for over 43 years now. How lovely! Something (finally) you are good at...and now you want to keep forcing the code test on ALL newcomers wanting below-30-MHz operating privileges! So, whatever YOU enjoy is what EVERYONE ELSE should "enjoy?" I'll be enjoying it long after code testing goes away. Again, how lovely! Mighty Macho Morseman rides again with the Four Morsemen of the Apocalypse! ["into the valley of dearth rode the four hundred..."] I'll bet Big Dave will be "enjoying" morse long after he has assumed room temperature... :-) The Coroner will have to pry the code key from his cold, dead fingers. Tsk, all that work imposed on government officials... 5329, |
#34
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Dave Heil wrote:
... I'd say this is a good time for all the good 'ole boys to remain silent, just as some are showing the intelligence and doing. The FCC made it clear that they recognize that code was being used as a method to control the numbers of amateurs allowed 'in.' Seems as if someone in the FCC even found the male organs big enough to face up to the "crimes" which were being committed against "John Doe Citizen" in depriving of access to radio with insanity. It is funny. It now stands obvious, selfish and self-centered hams became to believe the lies which they were spouting to maintain such a corrupt scheme, now they have grown blind and spout on making fools of themselves. Even, going to the lengths to argue against stone cold logic--nothing short of amazing. It just goes to show you the dangers, act like an idiot long enough and you become one! JS |
#35
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#36
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wrote in
oups.com: Mike Coslo wrote: wrote in ups.com: Bill Sohl wrote: wrote in message ups.com... Robert Casey wrote: Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples' predictions on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came closest? I know that I didn't. Hello Robert, SNIP Here's an update on the "when will FCC drop Element 1?" pool. This means the effective date of the FCC action that completely eliminates Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio license in the USA. Note how almost all the predicted dates and all of the *second* predicted dates have already passed: WA2SI: September 13, 2003 (first prediction) KF6TPT: September 29, 2003 KC8EPO: December 31, 2003 K2UNK: January 1, 2004 (first prediction) K2ASP: March 15, 2004 AA2QA: April 1, 2004 N2EY: April 15, 2004 N3KIP: May 1, 2004 (first prediction) KC8PMX: July 1, 2004 WA2ISE: August 1, 2004 K3LT: September 15, 2004 WK3C: December 30, 2004 N4PGW: May 22, 2005 N8UZE: July 1, 2005 (first prediction) N3KIP: December 31, 2005 (second prediction) N8UZE: January 31, 2006 (second prediction) N2EY: March 1, 2006 (second prediction) KB9RQZ: April 1, 2006 K2UNK: July 1, 2006 (second prediction) AB2RC: July 1, 2007 KB3EIA: July 5, 2007 W5TIT: June 1, 2008 WA2SI: Complete elimination not within the foreseeable future (second prediction) Right now it looks like AB2RC is the winner, with K2UNK a close second. Even though K2UNK's date is closer to the announcement date, the rule states "effective date of the FCC action that completely eliminates Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio license in the USA". Which cannot be any earlier than January 19, 2007, and will probably be late February or even early March 2007 if the 60 day rule is in effect. Hi Jim and the few others that can still post a mmessage in RRAP that indicates some common sense, logic and respect. Hello Bill! Hey, a close second... :-) Very close - but each day it gets closer to AB2RC's date. If only I had specified "announcement date", Bill would have won. Who'd a thought the FCC would footdrag as long as they did. Not me! Heck, my *second* predicted date was almost a year ago, and my first prediction almost three years ago. When the treaty changed way back in 2003, the announcement on the ARRL website said the process could take as long as two years. I thought that was way too long. Turns out it's already more than 3-1/2 years! Maybe I should start a new pool, in which people get to predict the growth or decline in the number of US amateurs by a certain date after the new rules..... How about a pool on when the inmates running the RRAP asylum will finalkly wear themselves out. I can't believe these characters have the time which they devooote to their infintile and sophmoric postings. The moderated version of rrap will come on line soon. That will be a different game entirely. I suspect that, given the recent "omnibus" R&O and the code test R&O, we will not see more changes to Part 97 for a long time. Cheers to the goodguys like Jim who have stuck it out. Thanks, but my time here is limited. I'll continue to post the ARS license numbers and make some occasional comments, but the noise level is so high that I read perhaps 2% of what is posted to rrap. Hey Jim, Hello Mike Since I started using Xnews, rrap is nice and clean. I shall look for Xnews. Been using Googlegroups and searching by various words and callsigns. Still an incredible amount of noise. I'm curious about the "moderated" version of rrap. Will it be fun enough for the members? Depends on what the members consider "fun". I've seen enough in here to know that part of the fun is in the namecalling. For some. Not for me. Even if one doesn't engage in it, they probably get something out of it. There *is* a certain satisfaction to pointing out when someone's statements are unsupported by facts and/or logic. It just got way out of hand the past year. What I saw happen was a war of words in which a few would take over every thread. And regarding the pool, I still say let's not call it finished until its finished. I didn't call it finished. I simply said that AB2RC looks like the winner. If the effective date is July 2, 2007, you and AB2RC will be tied. After that date, you'll be the frontrunner. But July is a ways off. Even if it takes FCC 60 days to get the R&O in the Federal Register, and even if the rules don't become effective until 60 days after that, we're still talking late April or so. I think it will happen a lot sooner. The really interesting thing will be how the license numbers will be affected. Have a great New Year! You, too. Straight Key Night starts on Sunday evening. 73 de Jim, N2EY I use XNews. I still have to add each new sockpuppet to my killfile, but it's quick and easy to do. |
#37
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wrote in
ups.com: Dee Flint wrote: wrote in message ps.com... wrote: On 24 Dec 2006 07:10:34 -0800, wrote: Robert Casey wrote: Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples' predictions on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came closest? I know that I didn't. That was N2EY's gig. He posted about it a week or so ago, but it got buried under the rubble of the Robesin wars. he did not declare a winner It hasn't been posted in the Fed Register yet... that could take another 3 years... While that is possible, it is much more likely (based on past history) that it will be published in the Federal Register within 30 days of having been posted on the FCC site. That would make it January 18 for publication. Then it would normally be effective 30 days after that, which would make the effectivity date February 17. Or they may decide to get all their work caught up for the end of the year and it could go into effect sooner. Or they may want to push it through before the Democrats have control. Either way, I've got my VE team lined up with additional members in case we get an unusually large number of applicants in Feb, Mar, & Apr. After that it should settle down to the normal or only slightly higher than normal number of applicants. Dee, N8UZE Stock up on the no-doze and the baby wipes. You may have some long sessions! I'd say we will get more Generals, including some who are new hams, and a few new Techs. There are definitely some Techs who are no longer active due to cellphones, but as long as they remain licenced it doesn't affect the question. There is definitely a problem in that you can no longer get test manuals in Radio Shack, or in any other store AFAIK. I tried to buy a General book for my XYL yesterday, but couldn't. My vote is 2-6% increase. 73 de N3KIP |
#38
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Rules:
1) Predict amount of change in ARS numbers between the IMPLEMENTATION date of the R&O for elimination of code testing and one year from that date. 2) Calculation of the number of licenses will be done by N2EY under the same principals that he uses now to calculate the number of licenses. 3) You must select whole numbers for your percentage. 4) You may select positive or negative percentages. 5) You may select a range but that range may not exceed a total of 4%. Note that your average will be used to determine who is closest. If the actual change is outside the range of everyone's guesses then the person whose limit is closest will be the winner. 6) You must submit your guess no later than six months after the IMPLEMENTATION date of the R&O. Anyone else? Note if your guess doesn't show up on the list within a week, it may mean that my ISP is blocking it or that you are on my blocked senders list. You may still participate but you will have to have your guess submitted by someone who is not blocked. Guesses submitted: N8UZE: 1% less to 1% more N2EY: 1% more to 2% more KH6HZ: 1% less to 0% change N3KIP: 2% more to 6% more --- Added 12/29/06 Dee, N8UZE |
#39
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![]() "Alun L. Palmer" wrote in message . .. wrote in ups.com: I think after the dust settles the big issue will be grandfathering Novices and Advanceds to the next class up, i.e. tidying up the licence scheme. and of course I still want more phone on 40, 20 and 15, but it will be a while before the FCC will get back to these things. Maybe petitions on these things would be dismissed if they were filed right now, but later on they might succeed. As adamant as the FCC has been on this, it's very doubtful that grandfathering will ever happen. They've made it plain that they consider it reasonable for people to pass the written tests for the upgrades. In addition, at the rate the Novice licenses are decreasing they will be all but gone in less than 10 years anyway. You may be somewhat right on the phone issue. Actually though I would expect to see them try the band plan approach (ala Europe) rather than the regulatory approach. Bad thing here is that it will be a major issue on a contest day as the contest ops will expand to fill the whole band instead of just part of the band for any given contest as they do now. IOW, there are other outstanding issues, but IMHO things are moving in the right direction. I do wonder why this took 3 1/2 years. Maybe the large number of petitions (18) and comments (zillions) had something to do with it. Maybe even Riley had something to do with delaying it? Does he have that much influence? 73 de N3KIP I'm firmly convinced that the number of petitions was a major hang-up on processing this. Each petition had a slightly different spin and each had a significant number of comments. The FCC staff had to digest all this and come to an agreement on just what approach would be taken. Dee, N8UZE |
#40
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![]() "John Smith I" wrote in message ... Dave Heil wrote: ... I'd say this is a good time for all the good 'ole boys to remain silent, just as some are showing the intelligence and doing. The FCC made it clear that they recognize that code was being used as a method to control the numbers of amateurs allowed 'in.' Seems as if someone in the FCC even found the male organs big enough to face up to the "crimes" which were being committed against "John Doe Citizen" in depriving of access to radio with insanity. It is funny. It now stands obvious, selfish and self-centered hams became to believe the lies which they were spouting to maintain such a corrupt scheme, now they have grown blind and spout on making fools of themselves. Even, going to the lengths to argue against stone cold logic--nothing short of amazing. It just goes to show you the dangers, act like an idiot long enough and you become one! JS Both sides of the argument have hurt ham radio. Both sides told major lies. Those who said code was a "lid filter, "right of passage", etc were wrong. Those who maintained code was too hard for the average person, outmoded, being used to control the numbers, etc were wrong. BOTH SIDES played to emotionalism. It will take a lot of work to repair the damage caused by those on both sides who used false arguments. Dee, N8UZE |
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