SOME OBSERVATIONS ABOUT THE CODELESS "REVOLUTION"

Based solely on www.hamdata.com published statistics from
22 February to 3 March 2007, there doesn't seem to be the
kind of "revolution" nor the influx of CB hordes expected
by the long-timers. Specifically, the table below uses the
small block of daily statistics that appears to the left of
the license class totals. Since the data of the data
is derived from FCC database files, the numberic values
represent daily quantities from FCC actions the day befo

NEW EXPIRED UPDATES CALL CHG. CLASS CHG
=== ======= ======= ========= =========
22 Feb, Thu. 174 172 894 49 88
23 Feb, Fri. 78 83 432 5 44
24 Feb, Sat. 190 127 494 47 121
25 Feb, Sun. 1 95 195 20 13
26 Feb, Mon. 0 0 58 0 0
27 Feb, Tue. 144 2 700 13 347
28 Feb, Wed. 99 168 846 44 89
1 Mar, Thu. 138 203 783 13 369
2 Mar, Fri. 87 204 729 12 346
3 Mar, Sat. 85 168 724 83 270

NEW = Never before licensed or retest after long absence
EXPIRED = Past the two-year grace period
UPDATES = Renewals, address changes, adminstrative
changes, not 'upgrades' to another class
CALL CHG = Changed call sign of existing license
CLASS CHG = Changed class of license (mostly 'upgrades')

Numbers for 25 and 26 Feb idicate the weekend off for FCC;
Expirations would probably be automatic as a result of
computer check of pre-determined grace period end. The
Updates column may be a result of more automation from
renewals received and thus might be due to just computer
activity automatically changing the licensing dates.

Tuesday the 27th probably indicates the beginning of the
"deluge" of VEC input that arrived on the Monday before.
The sudden jump in Class Changes is no doubt from existing
"lower" class Techs or Tech Plusses moving up to General.
What is interesting is that there don't seem to be ANY
significant change of NEW licensees' daily numbers. Those
have overwhelmingly come from unlicensed entering the Tech
class and have been at a constant increase since Tech was
created in 1991. The totals of Technician class HAVE
started to drop since the 23rd of February and continue
to decrease slowly; it is very certain that class'
licensees have upgraded to General or Extra now that there
is no code test requirement.

Whatever, it seems clear at a week after 06-178 became
legal that there isn't much of any influx of newcomers.

In the last 12 months www.hamdata.com reports that 22,609
NEW licensees entered. In the same period, 29,096 licenses
EXPIRED. Licensee grand total dropped by 6,487 in that
past period. A good thing or bad one?