Just finished another annual running to the two-weekend Sweepstakes contest (one
weekend Morse, one weekend phone).

As many of you know, this contest simulates traffic handling protocols with a
modestly challenging exchange with 5 information elements exchanged in each
direction. One of those elements is a "check" which is a 2-digit number
indicating the year the station was first licensed.

(This doesn't have any direct connection to the age of the operator, but it does
tell you how long they've been licensed.)

During this years contest weekends I was struck by the higher incidence of
"recent checks" in the phone event as compared to the Morse event.

Since I have Cabrillo logs available for the past 5 seasons of Sweepstakes, I
did a quick Excel evaluation looking at the "newcomer" trend of the Sweepstakes
contest. The total data population is right at 10,000 QSO's, so should be
reasonably "statistically relevant".

My intent was to test my hunch about a higher tendency for recent licensees to
be on phone, and that hunch proved true (no particular surprise), but in
addition a much scarier trend rose out of the figures.

The numbers below show the percentage of my QSO's which had a recieved "check"
in the current and 10 previous years (i.e., this year I counted "95" thru "05",
last year "94" through "04", etc.)

(Tabular info best viewed in 'fixed width' font)

Year CW% Phone% Combined%

2001 7.4% 24.0% 17.5%
2002 6.9 18.8 13.5
2003 7.0 14.8 10.9
2004 4.5 14.0 8.7
2005 4.0 14.0 9.9

As I mentioned, it's no surprise that newcomer contesters are more likely to be
on phone, but the really scary part is that the overall percentages (regardless
of mode) in the "licensed-in-the-last-10-years" are dropping so dramatically,
almost halved in just 5 years.

If the trend of "newcomers active in contesting" is a representative subset of
"newcomers active on the air in general" (as I suspect it is) then the future of
our hobby has a rather disturbing look.

What are we (all of us) going to do to reverse this ominous trend?

--
73, de Hans, K0HB
--
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http://www.home.earthlink.net/~k0hb
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"KØHB" wrote in message
ink.net...

What are we (all of us) going to do to reverse this ominous trend?



Sign them all up for the Legion. That way you will
have a bigger audience for your war stories Hans.


73 from Vince Folcarelli
Italian Ham Op Club
Little Italy

KØHB wrote:
Just finished another annual running to the two-weekend Sweepstakes contest (one
weekend Morse, one weekend phone).
cut

The numbers below show the percentage of my QSO's which had a recieved "check"
in the current and 10 previous years (i.e., this year I counted "95" thru"05",
last year "94" through "04", etc.)

(Tabular info best viewed in 'fixed width' font)

Year CW% Phone% Combined%

2001 7.4% 24.0% 17.5%
2002 6.9 18.8 13.5
2003 7.0 14.8 10.9
2004 4.5 14.0 8.7
2005 4.0 14.0 9.9

As I mentioned, it's no surprise that newcomer contesters are more likelyto be
on phone, but the really scary part is that the overall percentages (regardless
of mode) in the "licensed-in-the-last-10-years" are dropping so dramatically,
almost halved in just 5 years.

If the trend of "newcomers active in contesting" is a representative subset of
"newcomers active on the air in general" (as I suspect it is) then the future of
our hobby has a rather disturbing look.

One I suspect you are wrong

few newcomers I know of and by the standard you are using I am one
still are that interested in contesting, personaly I looks at and tend
to chuckle I also hear the tales of the that try and get flamed for not
"doing it right" as if the flamers was born with this knowledge or
receieved it as a implant

What are we (all of us) going to do to reverse this ominous trend?

inventing better contests might be a start

--
73, de Hans, K0HB
--

"an old friend" wrote

inventing better contests might be a start

I was more interested in activity in general, not just contests, but hey, that's
a fair comment.

What would make a "better contest" for you, especially as it would relate to
newcomers? What features of current contests interest you and what features
annoy you? What would you add that would cause you to send in a log?

73, de Hans, K0HB

KØHB wrote:
"an old friend" wrote

inventing better contests might be a start

I was more interested in activity in general, not just contests, but hey,that's
a fair comment.

What would make a "better contest" for you, especially as it would relateto
newcomers?

less cookie cutterness a contest where the exachance was to in fact say
something. I mean I do FD becuase it is club thing mostly but I feell
silly going aroing around saying 8A MI

What features of current contests interest you and what features
annoy you?
little about the current contests (those that I am aware realy
interests me, FD holds the most appear but with the imporvised nature
of the setup

What would you add that would cause you to send in a log?

maybe a contest where the points were on how long you were able to
hold a contact how much airtime you were able to fill with a near
stanger

just some thoughts

73, de Hans, K0HB

"an old friend" wrote

maybe a contest where the points were on how long
you were able to hold a contact how much airtime
you were able to fill with a near stanger


Be interesting to see how you could set up the scoring matrix...... If it was
simply length of contact (not the amount of information exchanged) then the real
slow talkers/slow senders would win. A built in advantage for southerners!

Would you have an upper limit on a contact length, and would the scoring be
linear...... for example 1 point per each 30 seconds of each contact, or
hockey-stick scoring with 1 point for 30 seconds, 5 points for one minute, 100
points for five minutes, and a bazzilion points for an hour?

What would you use for multipliers?

The thought occurs that newcomers are often somewhat mic-shy --- would they be
drawn to this kind of activity?


73, de Hans, K0HB

KØHB wrote:
"an old friend" wrote


maybe a contest where the points were on how long
you were able to hold a contact how much airtime
you were able to fill with a near stanger



Be interesting to see how you could set up the scoring matrix...... If it was
simply length of contact (not the amount of information exchanged) then the real
slow talkers/slow senders would win. A built in advantage for southerners!

Would you have an upper limit on a contact length, and would the scoring be
linear...... for example 1 point per each 30 seconds of each contact, or
hockey-stick scoring with 1 point for 30 seconds, 5 points for one minute, 100
points for five minutes, and a bazzilion points for an hour?

What would you use for multipliers?

The thought occurs that newcomers are often somewhat mic-shy --- would they be
drawn to this kind of activity?


73, de Hans, K0HB




Hans
I suspect that many newcomers are intimidated by the action in contests
like SS. They know they have no realistic expectation of winning. The
efforts like participation pins may help a bit. Again looking at SS the
first hours are quite frantic and top contesters give the exchange very
fast. If a newcomer isn't quite sure what was said or what he must say
they are not likely to respond.
I have heard some operators patiently explain what the exchange is and
help a first timer. However this appears to be a relative rarity as it
slows down the rate.
How about an incentive for the big scorers to work the newcomers? More
points per QSO if the check is less than 5 years old? More points if the
serial number is also below a certain threshhold? If it makes the big
guns more likely to be helpful I thin it would encourage those that are
a bit timid to join in. Also, can the contest logs be used to get
credit toward ARRL awards like WAS the way it used to be for DXCC?
Given the cost of QSLs and the return rate, that could also be an
incentive for some newcomers.
BTW - How did you do?
73, John K4BNC

"KØHB" wrote in message
nk.net...
///////FLUSHED///////


Hey Hans. How much is a Shot 'N Beer down at the
Legion Hall now? I hear the war stories spin faster and
better, after a few shot 'n beers.

"John" wrote

How about an incentive for the big scorers to work the newcomers? More points
per QSO if the check is less than 5 years old?

I really LIKE that one! The contest sponsor would need to validate it however,
or operators would adopt an artificially low number just to generate a run.

More points if the serial number is also below a certain threshhold?

I'm not sure that one is workable ..... everyone starts out with serial #1,
and the object is to rapidly increment that number so this would be a
disincentive to do well, even to the newcomer (unless I don't understand what
you propose).

Also, can the contest logs be used to get credit toward ARRL awards
like WAS the way it used to be for DXCC? Given the cost of QSLs and the return
rate, that could also be an incentive for some newcomers.

In effect this is already in place. I uploaded my log to LoTW 10 minutes after
the close of SS PH and already had close to 50 QSL's waiting for me. Right
now LoTW supports just DXCC, but WAS and WAZ are next (soon) to be implemented.

BTW - How did you do?

Not as well as I'd hoped. 773/79 on CW and 1043/80 on Phone weekend.

Phone weekend was especially frustrating, because conditions seemed so good.
Don't know what I did wrong, but just couldn't ratchet it up to the right level.
First few hours were OK (not great) with rates in the 70's, but then struggled
with long bands until about midnight. Couple good hours on 40 after midnight,
but not enough stations left to recover from the slow evening hours. Had a
pretty good Sunday afternoon on 40 starting about 2000Z, but I think I was
paying too much attention to my "half radio" (Drake R4C) looking for missing
mults. Ended up about 400 Q's off my target.

May be time to look at a new radio. I know I'm missing a lot of weak stations
on my run freqs, especially on 40M/80M. The Icom 775 attenuator doesn't seem to
be any good on those bands, and consequently the front end folds up with a lot
of strong adjacent RF. When N0AT, KT0R, NN7L, K0AD (all within a couple miles)
stroke up on 80M you could power an amp by rectifying the RF off my antenna
field!

73, de Hans, K0HB

KØHB wrote:
"John" wrote


How about an incentive for the big scorers to work the newcomers? More points
per QSO if the check is less than 5 years old?


I really LIKE that one! The contest sponsor would need to validate it however,
or operators would adopt an artificially low number just to generate a run.


More points if the serial number is also below a certain threshhold?


I'm not sure that one is workable ..... everyone starts out with serial #1,
and the object is to rapidly increment that number so this would be a
disincentive to do well, even to the newcomer (unless I don't understand what
you propose).
Probably not clearly stated and hard to implement. I was thinking of
someone with a small number for the time since contest started. That
is, some way to encourage working those who might just be making
occasional contacts.



Also, can the contest logs be used to get credit toward ARRL awards
like WAS the way it used to be for DXCC? Given the cost of QSLs and the return
rate, that could also be an incentive for some newcomers.


In effect this is already in place. I uploaded my log to LoTW 10 minutes after
the close of SS PH and already had close to 50 QSL's waiting for me. Right
now LoTW supports just DXCC, but WAS and WAZ are next (soon) to be implemented.

LOTW goes part way but I think the old DXCC method was even simpler
although it took longer. Once the contest results were published you
could just claim credit for a station worked in the contest. However as
I recall the number you could claim per DXCC submission was limited
unlike LOTW. It sure helped me back in the days when I was chasing DXCC
QSLs.


BTW - How did you do?


Not as well as I'd hoped. 773/79 on CW and 1043/80 on Phone weekend.

Phone weekend was especially frustrating, because conditions seemed so good.
Don't know what I did wrong, but just couldn't ratchet it up to the right level.
First few hours were OK (not great) with rates in the 70's, but then struggled
with long bands until about midnight. Couple good hours on 40 after midnight,
but not enough stations left to recover from the slow evening hours. Had a
pretty good Sunday afternoon on 40 starting about 2000Z, but I think I was
paying too much attention to my "half radio" (Drake R4C) looking for missing
mults. Ended up about 400 Q's off my target.

May be time to look at a new radio. I know I'm missing a lot of weak stations
on my run freqs, especially on 40M/80M. The Icom 775 attenuator doesn't seem to
be any good on those bands, and consequently the front end folds up with a lot
of strong adjacent RF. When N0AT, KT0R, NN7L, K0AD (all within a couple miles)
stroke up on 80M you could power an amp by rectifying the RF off my antenna
field!

73, de Hans, K0HB


Still a good score. I had troubles with the 40M vertical on Saturday
night. SWR had gone up so high I couldn't use the amp. FIxed it next
morning. AS far as I can tell the guy mowing the nextdoor lawn must
have run into the posts holding up the coax and broke the ground
connection. Still managed to make some contacts with it.
Made my goal here of 80 in 80. Last one was VE2; that one always seems
to be the hard one here.
John