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#1
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![]() http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=11 Numerous myths regarding the so-called "hockey stick" reconstruction of past temperatures, can be found on various non-peer reviewed websites, internet newsgroups and other non-scientific venues. The most widespread of these myths are debunked below: MYTH #0: Evidence for modern human influence on climate rests entirely upon the "Hockey Stick" Reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures indicating anomalous late 20th century warmth. This peculiar suggestion is sometimes found in op-ed pieces and other dubious propaganda, despite its transparant absurdity. Paleoclimate evidence is simply one in a number of independent lines of evidence indicating the strong likelihood that human influences on climate play a dominant role in the observed 20th century warming of the earth's surface. Perhaps the strongest piece of evidence in support of this conclusion is the evidence from so-called "Detection and Attribution Studies". Such studies demonstrate that the pattern of 20th century climate change closely matches that predicted by state-of-the-art models of the climate system in response to 20th century anthropogenic forcing (due to the combined influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations and industrial aerosol increases). MYTH #1: The "Hockey Stick" Reconstruction is based solely on two publications by climate scientist Michael Mann and colleagues (Mann et al, 1998;1999). This is patently false. Nearly a dozen model-based and proxy-based reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature by different groups all suggest that late 20th century warmth is anomalous in a long-term (multi-century to millennial) context (see Figures 1 and 2 in "Temperature Variations in Past Centuries and The So-Called 'Hockey Stick'"). Some proxy-based reconstructions suggest greater variability than others. This greater variability may be attributable to different emphases in seasonal and spatial emphasis (see Jones and Mann, 2004; Rutherford et al, 2004; Cook et al, 2004). However, even for those reconstructions which suggest a colder "Little Ice Age" and greater variability in general in past centuries, such as that of Esper et al (2002), late 20th century hemispheric warmth is still found to be anomalous in the context of the reconstruction (see Cook et al, 2004). ( more available in the link posted above ) |
#2
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http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/highlights/2...g_from_LIA.pdf
Is the Earth still recovering from the "Little Ice Age"? A possible cause of global warming Syun-Ichi Akasofu International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks Abstract There seems to be a roughly linear increase of the temperature from about 1800, or even much earlier, to the present. This warming trend is likely to be a natural change; a rapid increase of CO2 began in about 1940. This trend should be subtracted from the temperature data during the last 100 years. Thus, there is a possibility that only a fraction of the present warming trend may be attributed to the greenhouse effect resulting from human activities. This conclusion is contrary to the IPCC (2007) Report, which states that "most" of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect. One possible cause of the linear increase may be that the Earth is still recovering from the Little Ice Age. It is urgent that natural changes be correctly identified and removed accurately from the presently on- going changes in order to find the contribution of the greenhouse effect. 1. Introduction There are many documents that suggest that the period between 1500 and 1900 was relatively cool, at least in Europe; the River Thames was frequently frozen in 1676 and in the later part of the 17th century (Lamb, 1982). Stories of the exploration of the Northwest Passage also hint that sea ice conditions in northern Canada in the latter part of the 1800s were much worse than conditions today. It is now possible to cruise the passage without much assistance by icebreakers. Although there is some doubt about the exact timing of the "Little Ice Age," it is possible to infer that the period between 1500 and 1900 was relatively cool in many parts of the world, including Alaska (cf. Lamb, 1982; Gribbin (ed.), 1978; Crowley and North, 1991; Burroughs, 2001; Serreze and Barry, 2005). Climate change during the last 100 years or so has been intensely discussed over the last few decades. However, it is important to recognize that as far as the basic global warming data for this period are concerned, all we have is what is illustrated in the top of the diagram of Figure 1. The IPCC Reports state that the global average temperature increased about 0.6°C (~1°F) during the last 100 years. Their interpretation may be illustrated in the second diagram of Figure 1. Certainly, both the temperature and the amount of CO2 in the air have increased during the last 100 years or so. Further, it is well known that CO2 causes the greenhouse effect; therefore, it is natural to hypothesize that CO2 is a cause of the present warming trend. However, there is so far no definitive proof that "most" of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect, as is stated in the recently published IPCC Report (2007). In fact, the relationship between air temperature and CO2 is not simple. For example, the temperature had a 2 cooling trend from 1940 to about 1975, in spite of the fact that atmospheric CO2 began to increase rapidly in about 1940, as can be seen in Figure 1. In this note, it is pointed out that it is not possible to determine the percentage contribution of the greenhouse effect that is a direct result of human activities, unless natural causes can be identified and subtracted from the present warming trend. ( The rest of the article is available at the link posted above.) |
#3
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On Apr 21, 6:59 pm, Cato wrote:
http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/highlights/2...rth_recovering... Is the Earth still recovering from the "Little Ice Age"? A possible cause of global warming Syun-Ichi Akasofu International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks Abstract There seems to be a roughly linear increase of the temperature from about 1800, or even much earlier, to the present. This warming trend is likely to be a natural change; a rapid increase of CO2 began in about 1940. This trend should be subtracted from the temperature data during the last 100 years. Thus, there is a possibility that only a fraction of the present warming trend may be attributed to the greenhouse effect resulting from human activities. This conclusion is contrary to the IPCC (2007) Report, which states that "most" of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect. One possible cause of the linear increase may be that the Earth is still recovering from the Little Ice Age. It is urgent that natural changes be correctly identified and removed accurately from the presently on- going changes in order to find the contribution of the greenhouse effect. 1. Introduction There are many documents that suggest that the period between 1500 and 1900 was relatively cool, at least in Europe; the River Thames was frequently frozen in 1676 and in the later part of the 17th century (Lamb, 1982). Stories of the exploration of the Northwest Passage also hint that sea ice conditions in northern Canada in the latter part of the 1800s were much worse than conditions today. It is now possible to cruise the passage without much assistance by icebreakers. Although there is some doubt about the exact timing of the "Little Ice Age," it is possible to infer that the period between 1500 and 1900 was relatively cool in many parts of the world, including Alaska (cf. Lamb, 1982; Gribbin (ed.), 1978; Crowley and North, 1991; Burroughs, 2001; Serreze and Barry, 2005). Climate change during the last 100 years or so has been intensely discussed over the last few decades. However, it is important to recognize that as far as the basic global warming data for this period are concerned, all we have is what is illustrated in the top of the diagram of Figure 1. The IPCC Reports state that the global average temperature increased about 0.6°C (~1°F) during the last 100 years. Their interpretation may be illustrated in the second diagram of Figure 1. Certainly, both the temperature and the amount of CO2 in the air have increased during the last 100 years or so. Further, it is well known that CO2 causes the greenhouse effect; therefore, it is natural to hypothesize that CO2 is a cause of the present warming trend. However, there is so far no definitive proof that "most" of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect, as is stated in the recently published IPCC Report (2007). In fact, the relationship between air temperature and CO2 is not simple. For example, the temperature had a 2 cooling trend from 1940 to about 1975, in spite of the fact that atmospheric CO2 began to increase rapidly in about 1940, as can be seen in Figure 1. In this note, it is pointed out that it is not possible to determine the percentage contribution of the greenhouse effect that is a direct result of human activities, unless natural causes can be identified and subtracted from the present warming trend. ( The rest of the article is available at the link posted above.) Let Hear It For The : hockey stick, Hockey Stick. HOCKEY STICK ! and that's my global warming 'schtick' for the day ~ RHF . OBTW - "The Antenna Wire Weather Report" for here in Twain Harte, CA -for- This very Early Morning (3 AM) is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twain_Harte%2C_CA "WET" cause it's Raining; and it is Snowing up above http://www.wunderground.com/US/CA/Twain_Harte.html high in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. SIERRAS = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sierra_Nevada_(US) . . .. . |
#4
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On Apr 21, 6:59 pm, Cato wrote:
http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/highlights/2...rth_recovering... Is the Earth still recovering from the "Little Ice Age"? A possible cause of global warming Syun-Ichi Akasofu International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks Abstract There seems to be a roughly linear increase of the temperature from about 1800, or even much earlier, to the present. This warming trend is likely to be a natural change; a rapid increase of CO2 began in about 1940. This trend should be subtracted from the temperature data during the last 100 years. Thus, there is a possibility that only a fraction of the present warming trend may be attributed to the greenhouse effect resulting from human activities. This conclusion is contrary to the IPCC (2007) Report, which states that "most" of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect. One possible cause of the linear increase may be that the Earth is still recovering from the Little Ice Age. It is urgent that natural changes be correctly identified and removed accurately from the presently on- going changes in order to find the contribution of the greenhouse effect. 1. Introduction There are many documents that suggest that the period between 1500 and 1900 was relatively cool, at least in Europe; the River Thames was frequently frozen in 1676 and in the later part of the 17th century (Lamb, 1982). Stories of the exploration of the Northwest Passage also hint that sea ice conditions in northern Canada in the latter part of the 1800s were much worse than conditions today. It is now possible to cruise the passage without much assistance by icebreakers. Although there is some doubt about the exact timing of the "Little Ice Age," it is possible to infer that the period between 1500 and 1900 was relatively cool in many parts of the world, including Alaska (cf. Lamb, 1982; Gribbin (ed.), 1978; Crowley and North, 1991; Burroughs, 2001; Serreze and Barry, 2005). Climate change during the last 100 years or so has been intensely discussed over the last few decades. However, it is important to recognize that as far as the basic global warming data for this period are concerned, all we have is what is illustrated in the top of the diagram of Figure 1. The IPCC Reports state that the global average temperature increased about 0.6°C (~1°F) during the last 100 years. Their interpretation may be illustrated in the second diagram of Figure 1. Certainly, both the temperature and the amount of CO2 in the air have increased during the last 100 years or so. Further, it is well known that CO2 causes the greenhouse effect; therefore, it is natural to hypothesize that CO2 is a cause of the present warming trend. However, there is so far no definitive proof that "most" of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect, as is stated in the recently published IPCC Report (2007). In fact, the relationship between air temperature and CO2 is not simple. For example, the temperature had a 2 cooling trend from 1940 to about 1975, in spite of the fact that atmospheric CO2 began to increase rapidly in about 1940, as can be seen in Figure 1. In this note, it is pointed out that it is not possible to determine the percentage contribution of the greenhouse effect that is a direct result of human activities, unless natural causes can be identified and subtracted from the present warming trend. ( The rest of the article is available at the link posted above.) Let Hear It For The : hockey stick, Hockey Stick. HOCKEY STICK ! and that's my global warming 'schtick' for the day ~ RHF . OBTW - "The Antenna Wire Weather Report" for here in Twain Harte, CA -for- This very Early Morning (3 AM) is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twain_Harte%2C_CA "WET" cause it's Raining; and it is Snowing up above http://www.wunderground.com/US/CA/Twain_Harte.html high in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. SIERRAS = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sierra_Nevada_(US) . . .. . |
#5
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On Apr 21, 6:59 pm, Cato wrote:
http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/highlights/2...rth_recovering... Is the Earth still recovering from the "Little Ice Age"? A possible cause of global warming Syun-Ichi Akasofu International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks Abstract There seems to be a roughly linear increase of the temperature from about 1800, or even much earlier, to the present. This warming trend is likely to be a natural change; a rapid increase of CO2 began in about 1940. This trend should be subtracted from the temperature data during the last 100 years. Thus, there is a possibility that only a fraction of the present warming trend may be attributed to the greenhouse effect resulting from human activities. This conclusion is contrary to the IPCC (2007) Report, which states that "most" of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect. One possible cause of the linear increase may be that the Earth is still recovering from the Little Ice Age. It is urgent that natural changes be correctly identified and removed accurately from the presently on- going changes in order to find the contribution of the greenhouse effect. 1. Introduction There are many documents that suggest that the period between 1500 and 1900 was relatively cool, at least in Europe; the River Thames was frequently frozen in 1676 and in the later part of the 17th century (Lamb, 1982). Stories of the exploration of the Northwest Passage also hint that sea ice conditions in northern Canada in the latter part of the 1800s were much worse than conditions today. It is now possible to cruise the passage without much assistance by icebreakers. Although there is some doubt about the exact timing of the "Little Ice Age," it is possible to infer that the period between 1500 and 1900 was relatively cool in many parts of the world, including Alaska (cf. Lamb, 1982; Gribbin (ed.), 1978; Crowley and North, 1991; Burroughs, 2001; Serreze and Barry, 2005). Climate change during the last 100 years or so has been intensely discussed over the last few decades. However, it is important to recognize that as far as the basic global warming data for this period are concerned, all we have is what is illustrated in the top of the diagram of Figure 1. The IPCC Reports state that the global average temperature increased about 0.6°C (~1°F) during the last 100 years. Their interpretation may be illustrated in the second diagram of Figure 1. Certainly, both the temperature and the amount of CO2 in the air have increased during the last 100 years or so. Further, it is well known that CO2 causes the greenhouse effect; therefore, it is natural to hypothesize that CO2 is a cause of the present warming trend. However, there is so far no definitive proof that "most" of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect, as is stated in the recently published IPCC Report (2007). In fact, the relationship between air temperature and CO2 is not simple. For example, the temperature had a 2 cooling trend from 1940 to about 1975, in spite of the fact that atmospheric CO2 began to increase rapidly in about 1940, as can be seen in Figure 1. In this note, it is pointed out that it is not possible to determine the percentage contribution of the greenhouse effect that is a direct result of human activities, unless natural causes can be identified and subtracted from the present warming trend. ( The rest of the article is available at the link posted above.) Let Hear It For The : hockey stick, Hockey Stick. HOCKEY STICK ! and that's my global warming 'schtick' for the day ~ RHF . OBTW - "The Antenna Wire Weather Report" for here in Twain Harte, CA -for- This very Early Morning (3 AM) is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twain_Harte%2C_CA "WET" cause it's Raining; and it is Snowing up above http://www.wunderground.com/US/CA/Twain_Harte.html high in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. SIERRAS = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sierra_Nevada_(US) . . .. . |
#6
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On Apr 21, 6:59 pm, Cato wrote:
http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/highlights/2...rth_recovering... Is the Earth still recovering from the "Little Ice Age"? A possible cause of global warming Syun-Ichi Akasofu International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks Abstract There seems to be a roughly linear increase of the temperature from about 1800, or even much earlier, to the present. This warming trend is likely to be a natural change; a rapid increase of CO2 began in about 1940. This trend should be subtracted from the temperature data during the last 100 years. Thus, there is a possibility that only a fraction of the present warming trend may be attributed to the greenhouse effect resulting from human activities. This conclusion is contrary to the IPCC (2007) Report, which states that "most" of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect. One possible cause of the linear increase may be that the Earth is still recovering from the Little Ice Age. It is urgent that natural changes be correctly identified and removed accurately from the presently on- going changes in order to find the contribution of the greenhouse effect. 1. Introduction There are many documents that suggest that the period between 1500 and 1900 was relatively cool, at least in Europe; the River Thames was frequently frozen in 1676 and in the later part of the 17th century (Lamb, 1982). Stories of the exploration of the Northwest Passage also hint that sea ice conditions in northern Canada in the latter part of the 1800s were much worse than conditions today. It is now possible to cruise the passage without much assistance by icebreakers. Although there is some doubt about the exact timing of the "Little Ice Age," it is possible to infer that the period between 1500 and 1900 was relatively cool in many parts of the world, including Alaska (cf. Lamb, 1982; Gribbin (ed.), 1978; Crowley and North, 1991; Burroughs, 2001; Serreze and Barry, 2005). Climate change during the last 100 years or so has been intensely discussed over the last few decades. However, it is important to recognize that as far as the basic global warming data for this period are concerned, all we have is what is illustrated in the top of the diagram of Figure 1. The IPCC Reports state that the global average temperature increased about 0.6°C (~1°F) during the last 100 years. Their interpretation may be illustrated in the second diagram of Figure 1. Certainly, both the temperature and the amount of CO2 in the air have increased during the last 100 years or so. Further, it is well known that CO2 causes the greenhouse effect; therefore, it is natural to hypothesize that CO2 is a cause of the present warming trend. However, there is so far no definitive proof that "most" of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect, as is stated in the recently published IPCC Report (2007). In fact, the relationship between air temperature and CO2 is not simple. For example, the temperature had a 2 cooling trend from 1940 to about 1975, in spite of the fact that atmospheric CO2 began to increase rapidly in about 1940, as can be seen in Figure 1. In this note, it is pointed out that it is not possible to determine the percentage contribution of the greenhouse effect that is a direct result of human activities, unless natural causes can be identified and subtracted from the present warming trend. ( The rest of the article is available at the link posted above.) Let Hear It For The : hockey stick, Hockey Stick. HOCKEY STICK ! and that's my global warming 'schtick' for the day ~ RHF . OBTW - "The Antenna Wire Weather Report" for here in Twain Harte, CA -for- This very Early Morning (3 AM) is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twain_Harte%2C_CA "WET" cause it's Raining; and it is Snowing up above http://www.wunderground.com/US/CA/Twain_Harte.html high in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. SIERRAS = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sierra_Nevada_(US) . . .. . |
#7
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On Apr 21, 6:59 pm, Cato wrote:
http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/highlights/2...rth_recovering... Is the Earth still recovering from the "Little Ice Age"? A possible cause of global warming Syun-Ichi Akasofu International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks Abstract There seems to be a roughly linear increase of the temperature from about 1800, or even much earlier, to the present. This warming trend is likely to be a natural change; a rapid increase of CO2 began in about 1940. This trend should be subtracted from the temperature data during the last 100 years. Thus, there is a possibility that only a fraction of the present warming trend may be attributed to the greenhouse effect resulting from human activities. This conclusion is contrary to the IPCC (2007) Report, which states that "most" of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect. One possible cause of the linear increase may be that the Earth is still recovering from the Little Ice Age. It is urgent that natural changes be correctly identified and removed accurately from the presently on- going changes in order to find the contribution of the greenhouse effect. 1. Introduction There are many documents that suggest that the period between 1500 and 1900 was relatively cool, at least in Europe; the River Thames was frequently frozen in 1676 and in the later part of the 17th century (Lamb, 1982). Stories of the exploration of the Northwest Passage also hint that sea ice conditions in northern Canada in the latter part of the 1800s were much worse than conditions today. It is now possible to cruise the passage without much assistance by icebreakers. Although there is some doubt about the exact timing of the "Little Ice Age," it is possible to infer that the period between 1500 and 1900 was relatively cool in many parts of the world, including Alaska (cf. Lamb, 1982; Gribbin (ed.), 1978; Crowley and North, 1991; Burroughs, 2001; Serreze and Barry, 2005). Climate change during the last 100 years or so has been intensely discussed over the last few decades. However, it is important to recognize that as far as the basic global warming data for this period are concerned, all we have is what is illustrated in the top of the diagram of Figure 1. The IPCC Reports state that the global average temperature increased about 0.6°C (~1°F) during the last 100 years. Their interpretation may be illustrated in the second diagram of Figure 1. Certainly, both the temperature and the amount of CO2 in the air have increased during the last 100 years or so. Further, it is well known that CO2 causes the greenhouse effect; therefore, it is natural to hypothesize that CO2 is a cause of the present warming trend. However, there is so far no definitive proof that "most" of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect, as is stated in the recently published IPCC Report (2007). In fact, the relationship between air temperature and CO2 is not simple. For example, the temperature had a 2 cooling trend from 1940 to about 1975, in spite of the fact that atmospheric CO2 began to increase rapidly in about 1940, as can be seen in Figure 1. In this note, it is pointed out that it is not possible to determine the percentage contribution of the greenhouse effect that is a direct result of human activities, unless natural causes can be identified and subtracted from the present warming trend. ( The rest of the article is available at the link posted above.) Let Hear It For The : hockey stick, Hockey Stick. HOCKEY STICK ! and that's my global warming 'schtick' for the day ~ RHF . OBTW - "The Antenna Wire Weather Report" for here in Twain Harte, CA -for- This very Early Morning (3 AM) is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twain_Harte%2C_CA "WET" cause it's Raining; and it is Snowing up above http://www.wunderground.com/US/CA/Twain_Harte.html high in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. SIERRAS = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sierra_Nevada_(US) . . .. . |
#8
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On Apr 22, 7:26 am, RHF wrote:
On Apr 21, 1:59 pm, wrote: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=11 Numerous myths regarding the so-called "hockey stick" reconstruction of past temperatures, can be found on various non-peer reviewed websites, internet newsgroups and other non-scientific venues. The most widespread of these myths are debunked below: MYTH #0: Evidence for modern human influence on climate rests entirely upon the "Hockey Stick" Reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures indicating anomalous late 20th century warmth. This peculiar suggestion is sometimes found in op-ed pieces and other dubious propaganda, despite its transparant absurdity. Paleoclimate evidence is simply one in a number of independent lines of evidence indicating the strong likelihood that human influences on climate play a dominant role in the observed 20th century warming of the earth's surface. Perhaps the strongest piece of evidence in support of this conclusion is the evidence from so-called "Detection and Attribution Studies". Such studies demonstrate that the pattern of 20th century climate change closely matches that predicted by state-of-the-art models of the climate system in response to 20th century anthropogenic forcing (due to the combined influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations and industrial aerosol increases). MYTH #1: The "Hockey Stick" Reconstruction is based solely on two publications by climate scientist Michael Mann and colleagues (Mann et al, 1998;1999). This is patently false. Nearly a dozen model-based and proxy-based reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature by different groups all suggest that late 20th century warmth is anomalous in a long-term (multi-century to millennial) context (see Figures 1 and 2 in "Temperature Variations in Past Centuries and The So-Called 'Hockey Stick'"). Some proxy-based reconstructions suggest greater variability than others. This greater variability may be attributable to different emphases in seasonal and spatial emphasis (see Jones and Mann, 2004; Rutherford et al, 2004; Cook et al, 2004). However, even for those reconstructions which suggest a colder "Little Ice Age" and greater variability in general in past centuries, such as that of Esper et al (2002), late 20th century hemispheric warmth is still found to be anomalous in the context of the reconstruction (see Cook et al, 2004). ( more available in the link posted above ) |
#9
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![]() "RHF" wrote in message oups.com... On Apr 21, 6:59 pm, Cato wrote: http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/highlights/2...rth_recovering... LOADS OF TRIVIA SNIPPED Let Hear It For The : hockey stick, Hockey Stick. HOCKEY STICK ! and that's my global warming 'schtick' for the day ~ RHF Readers will be fascinated to learn that the "hockey stick" and the "umbrella" were devices used during WW2 to clear out the clogged chanel of a venereally-diseased penis . miki.. |
#10
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![]() "miki" wrote in message ... "RHF" wrote in message oups.com... On Apr 21, 6:59 pm, Cato wrote: http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/highlights/2...rth_recovering... LOADS OF TRIVIA SNIPPED Let Hear It For The : hockey stick, Hockey Stick. HOCKEY STICK ! and that's my global warming 'schtick' for the day ~ RHF Readers will be fascinated to learn that the "hockey stick" and the "umbrella" were devices used during WW2 to clear out the clogged chanel of a venereally-diseased penis . miki.. . P.S. : Make that "channel".... my bad. miki. .. . |
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