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  #1   Report Post  
Old April 21st 07, 10:59 PM posted to rec.radio.shortwave
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First recorded activity by RadioBanter: Jul 2006
Posts: 91
Default ( OT) Myth vs. Fact Regarding the "Hockey Stick"


http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=11


Numerous myths regarding the so-called "hockey stick" reconstruction
of past temperatures, can be found on various non-peer reviewed
websites, internet newsgroups and other non-scientific venues. The
most widespread of these myths are debunked below:


MYTH #0: Evidence for modern human influence on climate rests entirely
upon the "Hockey Stick" Reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere mean
temperatures indicating anomalous late 20th century warmth.


This peculiar suggestion is sometimes found in op-ed pieces and other
dubious propaganda, despite its transparant absurdity. Paleoclimate
evidence is simply one in a number of independent lines of evidence
indicating the strong likelihood that human influences on climate play
a dominant role in the observed 20th century warming of the earth's
surface. Perhaps the strongest piece of evidence in support of this
conclusion is the evidence from so-called "Detection and Attribution
Studies". Such studies demonstrate that the pattern of 20th century
climate change closely matches that predicted by state-of-the-art
models of the climate system in response to 20th century anthropogenic
forcing (due to the combined influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations and industrial aerosol increases).

MYTH #1: The "Hockey Stick" Reconstruction is based solely on two
publications by climate scientist Michael Mann and colleagues (Mann et
al, 1998;1999).


This is patently false. Nearly a dozen model-based and proxy-based
reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature by different
groups all suggest that late 20th century warmth is anomalous in a
long-term (multi-century to millennial) context (see Figures 1 and 2
in "Temperature Variations in Past Centuries and The So-Called 'Hockey
Stick'").

Some proxy-based reconstructions suggest greater variability than
others. This greater variability may be attributable to different
emphases in seasonal and spatial emphasis (see Jones and Mann, 2004;
Rutherford et al, 2004; Cook et al, 2004). However, even for those
reconstructions which suggest a colder "Little Ice Age" and greater
variability in general in past centuries, such as that of Esper et al
(2002), late 20th century hemispheric warmth is still found to be
anomalous in the context of the reconstruction (see Cook et al, 2004).


( more available in the link posted above )

  #2   Report Post  
Old April 22nd 07, 03:59 AM posted to rec.radio.shortwave
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by RadioBanter: Dec 2006
Posts: 210
Default ( OT) Myth vs. Fact Regarding the "Hockey Stick"

http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/highlights/2...g_from_LIA.pdf

Is the Earth still recovering from the "Little Ice Age"?
A possible cause of global warming
Syun-Ichi Akasofu
International Arctic Research Center
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Abstract
There seems to be a roughly linear increase of the temperature from
about 1800, or even much earlier, to
the present. This warming trend is likely to be a natural change; a
rapid increase of CO2 began in about
1940. This trend should be subtracted from the temperature data during
the last 100 years. Thus, there is a
possibility that only a fraction of the present warming trend may be
attributed to the greenhouse effect
resulting from human activities. This conclusion is contrary to the
IPCC (2007) Report, which states that
"most" of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect. One
possible cause of the linear increase
may be that the Earth is still recovering from the Little Ice Age. It
is urgent that natural changes be
correctly identified and removed accurately from the presently on-
going changes in order to find the
contribution of the greenhouse effect.
1. Introduction
There are many documents that suggest that the period between 1500 and
1900 was relatively
cool, at least in Europe; the River Thames was frequently frozen in
1676 and in the later part of
the 17th century (Lamb, 1982). Stories of the exploration of the
Northwest Passage also hint that
sea ice conditions in northern Canada in the latter part of the 1800s
were much worse than
conditions today. It is now possible to cruise the passage without
much assistance by icebreakers.
Although there is some doubt about the exact timing of the "Little Ice
Age," it is possible to infer
that the period between 1500 and 1900 was relatively cool in many
parts of the world, including
Alaska (cf. Lamb, 1982; Gribbin (ed.), 1978; Crowley and North, 1991;
Burroughs, 2001;
Serreze and Barry, 2005).
Climate change during the last 100 years or so has been intensely
discussed over the last few
decades. However, it is important to recognize that as far as the
basic global warming data for
this period are concerned, all we have is what is illustrated in the
top of the diagram of Figure 1.
The IPCC Reports state that the global average temperature increased
about 0.6°C (~1°F) during
the last 100 years. Their interpretation may be illustrated in the
second diagram of Figure 1.
Certainly, both the temperature and the amount of CO2 in the air have
increased during the last
100 years or so. Further, it is well known that CO2 causes the
greenhouse effect; therefore, it is
natural to hypothesize that CO2 is a cause of the present warming
trend.
However, there is so far no definitive proof that "most" of the
present warming is due to the
greenhouse effect, as is stated in the recently published IPCC Report
(2007). In fact, the
relationship between air temperature and CO2 is not simple. For
example, the temperature had a
2
cooling trend from 1940 to about 1975, in spite of the fact that
atmospheric CO2 began to
increase rapidly in about 1940, as can be seen in Figure 1.
In this note, it is pointed out that it is not possible to determine
the percentage contribution of the
greenhouse effect that is a direct result of human activities, unless
natural causes can be
identified and subtracted from the present warming trend.
( The rest of the article is available at the link posted above.)

  #3   Report Post  
Old April 22nd 07, 12:07 PM posted to rec.radio.shortwave
RHF RHF is offline
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by RadioBanter: Jun 2006
Posts: 8,652
Default ( OT) Myth vs. Fact Regarding the "Hockey Stick"

On Apr 21, 6:59 pm, Cato wrote:
http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/highlights/2...rth_recovering...

Is the Earth still recovering from the "Little Ice Age"?
A possible cause of global warming
Syun-Ichi Akasofu
International Arctic Research Center
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Abstract
There seems to be a roughly linear increase of the temperature from
about 1800, or even much earlier, to
the present. This warming trend is likely to be a natural change; a
rapid increase of CO2 began in about
1940. This trend should be subtracted from the temperature data during
the last 100 years. Thus, there is a
possibility that only a fraction of the present warming trend may be
attributed to the greenhouse effect
resulting from human activities. This conclusion is contrary to the
IPCC (2007) Report, which states that
"most" of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect. One
possible cause of the linear increase
may be that the Earth is still recovering from the Little Ice Age. It
is urgent that natural changes be
correctly identified and removed accurately from the presently on-
going changes in order to find the
contribution of the greenhouse effect.
1. Introduction
There are many documents that suggest that the period between 1500 and
1900 was relatively
cool, at least in Europe; the River Thames was frequently frozen in
1676 and in the later part of
the 17th century (Lamb, 1982). Stories of the exploration of the
Northwest Passage also hint that
sea ice conditions in northern Canada in the latter part of the 1800s
were much worse than
conditions today. It is now possible to cruise the passage without
much assistance by icebreakers.
Although there is some doubt about the exact timing of the "Little Ice
Age," it is possible to infer
that the period between 1500 and 1900 was relatively cool in many
parts of the world, including
Alaska (cf. Lamb, 1982; Gribbin (ed.), 1978; Crowley and North, 1991;
Burroughs, 2001;
Serreze and Barry, 2005).
Climate change during the last 100 years or so has been intensely
discussed over the last few
decades. However, it is important to recognize that as far as the
basic global warming data for
this period are concerned, all we have is what is illustrated in the
top of the diagram of Figure 1.
The IPCC Reports state that the global average temperature increased
about 0.6°C (~1°F) during
the last 100 years. Their interpretation may be illustrated in the
second diagram of Figure 1.
Certainly, both the temperature and the amount of CO2 in the air have
increased during the last
100 years or so. Further, it is well known that CO2 causes the
greenhouse effect; therefore, it is
natural to hypothesize that CO2 is a cause of the present warming
trend.
However, there is so far no definitive proof that "most" of the
present warming is due to the
greenhouse effect, as is stated in the recently published IPCC Report
(2007). In fact, the
relationship between air temperature and CO2 is not simple. For
example, the temperature had a
2
cooling trend from 1940 to about 1975, in spite of the fact that
atmospheric CO2 began to
increase rapidly in about 1940, as can be seen in Figure 1.
In this note, it is pointed out that it is not possible to determine
the percentage contribution of the
greenhouse effect that is a direct result of human activities, unless
natural causes can be
identified and subtracted from the present warming trend.
( The rest of the article is available at the link posted above.)


Let Hear It For The :

hockey stick,

Hockey Stick.

HOCKEY STICK !

and that's my global warming 'schtick' for the day ~ RHF
.
OBTW - "The Antenna Wire Weather Report" for here in
Twain Harte, CA -for- This very Early Morning (3 AM) is
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twain_Harte%2C_CA
"WET" cause it's Raining; and it is Snowing up above
http://www.wunderground.com/US/CA/Twain_Harte.html
high in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.
SIERRAS = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sierra_Nevada_(US)

.
.
.. .

  #4   Report Post  
Old April 22nd 07, 12:08 PM posted to rec.radio.shortwave
RHF RHF is offline
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by RadioBanter: Jun 2006
Posts: 8,652
Default ( OT) Myth vs. Fact Regarding the "Hockey Stick"

On Apr 21, 6:59 pm, Cato wrote:
http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/highlights/2...rth_recovering...

Is the Earth still recovering from the "Little Ice Age"?
A possible cause of global warming
Syun-Ichi Akasofu
International Arctic Research Center
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Abstract
There seems to be a roughly linear increase of the temperature from
about 1800, or even much earlier, to
the present. This warming trend is likely to be a natural change; a
rapid increase of CO2 began in about
1940. This trend should be subtracted from the temperature data during
the last 100 years. Thus, there is a
possibility that only a fraction of the present warming trend may be
attributed to the greenhouse effect
resulting from human activities. This conclusion is contrary to the
IPCC (2007) Report, which states that
"most" of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect. One
possible cause of the linear increase
may be that the Earth is still recovering from the Little Ice Age. It
is urgent that natural changes be
correctly identified and removed accurately from the presently on-
going changes in order to find the
contribution of the greenhouse effect.
1. Introduction
There are many documents that suggest that the period between 1500 and
1900 was relatively
cool, at least in Europe; the River Thames was frequently frozen in
1676 and in the later part of
the 17th century (Lamb, 1982). Stories of the exploration of the
Northwest Passage also hint that
sea ice conditions in northern Canada in the latter part of the 1800s
were much worse than
conditions today. It is now possible to cruise the passage without
much assistance by icebreakers.
Although there is some doubt about the exact timing of the "Little Ice
Age," it is possible to infer
that the period between 1500 and 1900 was relatively cool in many
parts of the world, including
Alaska (cf. Lamb, 1982; Gribbin (ed.), 1978; Crowley and North, 1991;
Burroughs, 2001;
Serreze and Barry, 2005).
Climate change during the last 100 years or so has been intensely
discussed over the last few
decades. However, it is important to recognize that as far as the
basic global warming data for
this period are concerned, all we have is what is illustrated in the
top of the diagram of Figure 1.
The IPCC Reports state that the global average temperature increased
about 0.6°C (~1°F) during
the last 100 years. Their interpretation may be illustrated in the
second diagram of Figure 1.
Certainly, both the temperature and the amount of CO2 in the air have
increased during the last
100 years or so. Further, it is well known that CO2 causes the
greenhouse effect; therefore, it is
natural to hypothesize that CO2 is a cause of the present warming
trend.
However, there is so far no definitive proof that "most" of the
present warming is due to the
greenhouse effect, as is stated in the recently published IPCC Report
(2007). In fact, the
relationship between air temperature and CO2 is not simple. For
example, the temperature had a
2
cooling trend from 1940 to about 1975, in spite of the fact that
atmospheric CO2 began to
increase rapidly in about 1940, as can be seen in Figure 1.
In this note, it is pointed out that it is not possible to determine
the percentage contribution of the
greenhouse effect that is a direct result of human activities, unless
natural causes can be
identified and subtracted from the present warming trend.
( The rest of the article is available at the link posted above.)


Let Hear It For The :

hockey stick,

Hockey Stick.

HOCKEY STICK !

and that's my global warming 'schtick' for the day ~ RHF
.
OBTW - "The Antenna Wire Weather Report" for here in
Twain Harte, CA -for- This very Early Morning (3 AM) is
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twain_Harte%2C_CA
"WET" cause it's Raining; and it is Snowing up above
http://www.wunderground.com/US/CA/Twain_Harte.html
high in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.
SIERRAS = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sierra_Nevada_(US)

.
.
.. .

  #5   Report Post  
Old April 22nd 07, 12:10 PM posted to rec.radio.shortwave
RHF RHF is offline
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by RadioBanter: Jun 2006
Posts: 8,652
Default ( OT) Myth vs. Fact Regarding the "Hockey Stick"

On Apr 21, 6:59 pm, Cato wrote:
http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/highlights/2...rth_recovering...

Is the Earth still recovering from the "Little Ice Age"?
A possible cause of global warming
Syun-Ichi Akasofu
International Arctic Research Center
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Abstract
There seems to be a roughly linear increase of the temperature from
about 1800, or even much earlier, to
the present. This warming trend is likely to be a natural change; a
rapid increase of CO2 began in about
1940. This trend should be subtracted from the temperature data during
the last 100 years. Thus, there is a
possibility that only a fraction of the present warming trend may be
attributed to the greenhouse effect
resulting from human activities. This conclusion is contrary to the
IPCC (2007) Report, which states that
"most" of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect. One
possible cause of the linear increase
may be that the Earth is still recovering from the Little Ice Age. It
is urgent that natural changes be
correctly identified and removed accurately from the presently on-
going changes in order to find the
contribution of the greenhouse effect.
1. Introduction
There are many documents that suggest that the period between 1500 and
1900 was relatively
cool, at least in Europe; the River Thames was frequently frozen in
1676 and in the later part of
the 17th century (Lamb, 1982). Stories of the exploration of the
Northwest Passage also hint that
sea ice conditions in northern Canada in the latter part of the 1800s
were much worse than
conditions today. It is now possible to cruise the passage without
much assistance by icebreakers.
Although there is some doubt about the exact timing of the "Little Ice
Age," it is possible to infer
that the period between 1500 and 1900 was relatively cool in many
parts of the world, including
Alaska (cf. Lamb, 1982; Gribbin (ed.), 1978; Crowley and North, 1991;
Burroughs, 2001;
Serreze and Barry, 2005).
Climate change during the last 100 years or so has been intensely
discussed over the last few
decades. However, it is important to recognize that as far as the
basic global warming data for
this period are concerned, all we have is what is illustrated in the
top of the diagram of Figure 1.
The IPCC Reports state that the global average temperature increased
about 0.6°C (~1°F) during
the last 100 years. Their interpretation may be illustrated in the
second diagram of Figure 1.
Certainly, both the temperature and the amount of CO2 in the air have
increased during the last
100 years or so. Further, it is well known that CO2 causes the
greenhouse effect; therefore, it is
natural to hypothesize that CO2 is a cause of the present warming
trend.
However, there is so far no definitive proof that "most" of the
present warming is due to the
greenhouse effect, as is stated in the recently published IPCC Report
(2007). In fact, the
relationship between air temperature and CO2 is not simple. For
example, the temperature had a
2
cooling trend from 1940 to about 1975, in spite of the fact that
atmospheric CO2 began to
increase rapidly in about 1940, as can be seen in Figure 1.
In this note, it is pointed out that it is not possible to determine
the percentage contribution of the
greenhouse effect that is a direct result of human activities, unless
natural causes can be
identified and subtracted from the present warming trend.
( The rest of the article is available at the link posted above.)


Let Hear It For The :

hockey stick,

Hockey Stick.

HOCKEY STICK !

and that's my global warming 'schtick' for the day ~ RHF
.
OBTW - "The Antenna Wire Weather Report" for here in
Twain Harte, CA -for- This very Early Morning (3 AM) is
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twain_Harte%2C_CA
"WET" cause it's Raining; and it is Snowing up above
http://www.wunderground.com/US/CA/Twain_Harte.html
high in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.
SIERRAS = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sierra_Nevada_(US)

.
.
.. .



  #6   Report Post  
Old April 22nd 07, 12:13 PM posted to rec.radio.shortwave
RHF RHF is offline
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by RadioBanter: Jun 2006
Posts: 8,652
Default ( OT) Myth vs. Fact Regarding the "Hockey Stick"

On Apr 21, 6:59 pm, Cato wrote:
http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/highlights/2...rth_recovering...

Is the Earth still recovering from the "Little Ice Age"?
A possible cause of global warming
Syun-Ichi Akasofu
International Arctic Research Center
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Abstract
There seems to be a roughly linear increase of the temperature from
about 1800, or even much earlier, to
the present. This warming trend is likely to be a natural change; a
rapid increase of CO2 began in about
1940. This trend should be subtracted from the temperature data during
the last 100 years. Thus, there is a
possibility that only a fraction of the present warming trend may be
attributed to the greenhouse effect
resulting from human activities. This conclusion is contrary to the
IPCC (2007) Report, which states that
"most" of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect. One
possible cause of the linear increase
may be that the Earth is still recovering from the Little Ice Age. It
is urgent that natural changes be
correctly identified and removed accurately from the presently on-
going changes in order to find the
contribution of the greenhouse effect.
1. Introduction
There are many documents that suggest that the period between 1500 and
1900 was relatively
cool, at least in Europe; the River Thames was frequently frozen in
1676 and in the later part of
the 17th century (Lamb, 1982). Stories of the exploration of the
Northwest Passage also hint that
sea ice conditions in northern Canada in the latter part of the 1800s
were much worse than
conditions today. It is now possible to cruise the passage without
much assistance by icebreakers.
Although there is some doubt about the exact timing of the "Little Ice
Age," it is possible to infer
that the period between 1500 and 1900 was relatively cool in many
parts of the world, including
Alaska (cf. Lamb, 1982; Gribbin (ed.), 1978; Crowley and North, 1991;
Burroughs, 2001;
Serreze and Barry, 2005).
Climate change during the last 100 years or so has been intensely
discussed over the last few
decades. However, it is important to recognize that as far as the
basic global warming data for
this period are concerned, all we have is what is illustrated in the
top of the diagram of Figure 1.
The IPCC Reports state that the global average temperature increased
about 0.6°C (~1°F) during
the last 100 years. Their interpretation may be illustrated in the
second diagram of Figure 1.
Certainly, both the temperature and the amount of CO2 in the air have
increased during the last
100 years or so. Further, it is well known that CO2 causes the
greenhouse effect; therefore, it is
natural to hypothesize that CO2 is a cause of the present warming
trend.
However, there is so far no definitive proof that "most" of the
present warming is due to the
greenhouse effect, as is stated in the recently published IPCC Report
(2007). In fact, the
relationship between air temperature and CO2 is not simple. For
example, the temperature had a
2
cooling trend from 1940 to about 1975, in spite of the fact that
atmospheric CO2 began to
increase rapidly in about 1940, as can be seen in Figure 1.
In this note, it is pointed out that it is not possible to determine
the percentage contribution of the
greenhouse effect that is a direct result of human activities, unless
natural causes can be
identified and subtracted from the present warming trend.
( The rest of the article is available at the link posted above.)


Let Hear It For The :

hockey stick,

Hockey Stick.

HOCKEY STICK !

and that's my global warming 'schtick' for the day ~ RHF
.
OBTW - "The Antenna Wire Weather Report" for here in
Twain Harte, CA -for- This very Early Morning (3 AM) is
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twain_Harte%2C_CA
"WET" cause it's Raining; and it is Snowing up above
http://www.wunderground.com/US/CA/Twain_Harte.html
high in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.
SIERRAS = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sierra_Nevada_(US)

.
.
.. .

  #7   Report Post  
Old April 22nd 07, 12:19 PM posted to rec.radio.shortwave
RHF RHF is offline
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by RadioBanter: Jun 2006
Posts: 8,652
Default ( OT) Myth vs. Fact Regarding the "Hockey Stick"

On Apr 21, 6:59 pm, Cato wrote:
http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/highlights/2...rth_recovering...

Is the Earth still recovering from the "Little Ice Age"?
A possible cause of global warming
Syun-Ichi Akasofu
International Arctic Research Center
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Abstract
There seems to be a roughly linear increase of the temperature from
about 1800, or even much earlier, to
the present. This warming trend is likely to be a natural change; a
rapid increase of CO2 began in about
1940. This trend should be subtracted from the temperature data during
the last 100 years. Thus, there is a
possibility that only a fraction of the present warming trend may be
attributed to the greenhouse effect
resulting from human activities. This conclusion is contrary to the
IPCC (2007) Report, which states that
"most" of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect. One
possible cause of the linear increase
may be that the Earth is still recovering from the Little Ice Age. It
is urgent that natural changes be
correctly identified and removed accurately from the presently on-
going changes in order to find the
contribution of the greenhouse effect.
1. Introduction
There are many documents that suggest that the period between 1500 and
1900 was relatively
cool, at least in Europe; the River Thames was frequently frozen in
1676 and in the later part of
the 17th century (Lamb, 1982). Stories of the exploration of the
Northwest Passage also hint that
sea ice conditions in northern Canada in the latter part of the 1800s
were much worse than
conditions today. It is now possible to cruise the passage without
much assistance by icebreakers.
Although there is some doubt about the exact timing of the "Little Ice
Age," it is possible to infer
that the period between 1500 and 1900 was relatively cool in many
parts of the world, including
Alaska (cf. Lamb, 1982; Gribbin (ed.), 1978; Crowley and North, 1991;
Burroughs, 2001;
Serreze and Barry, 2005).
Climate change during the last 100 years or so has been intensely
discussed over the last few
decades. However, it is important to recognize that as far as the
basic global warming data for
this period are concerned, all we have is what is illustrated in the
top of the diagram of Figure 1.
The IPCC Reports state that the global average temperature increased
about 0.6°C (~1°F) during
the last 100 years. Their interpretation may be illustrated in the
second diagram of Figure 1.
Certainly, both the temperature and the amount of CO2 in the air have
increased during the last
100 years or so. Further, it is well known that CO2 causes the
greenhouse effect; therefore, it is
natural to hypothesize that CO2 is a cause of the present warming
trend.
However, there is so far no definitive proof that "most" of the
present warming is due to the
greenhouse effect, as is stated in the recently published IPCC Report
(2007). In fact, the
relationship between air temperature and CO2 is not simple. For
example, the temperature had a
2
cooling trend from 1940 to about 1975, in spite of the fact that
atmospheric CO2 began to
increase rapidly in about 1940, as can be seen in Figure 1.
In this note, it is pointed out that it is not possible to determine
the percentage contribution of the
greenhouse effect that is a direct result of human activities, unless
natural causes can be
identified and subtracted from the present warming trend.
( The rest of the article is available at the link posted above.)


Let Hear It For The :

hockey stick,

Hockey Stick.

HOCKEY STICK !

and that's my global warming 'schtick' for the day ~ RHF
.
OBTW - "The Antenna Wire Weather Report" for here in
Twain Harte, CA -for- This very Early Morning (3 AM) is
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twain_Harte%2C_CA
"WET" cause it's Raining; and it is Snowing up above
http://www.wunderground.com/US/CA/Twain_Harte.html
high in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.
SIERRAS = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sierra_Nevada_(US)

.
.
.. .

  #8   Report Post  
Old April 22nd 07, 04:08 PM posted to rec.radio.shortwave
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by RadioBanter: Jul 2006
Posts: 91
Default ( OT) Myth vs. Fact Regarding the "Hockey Stick" -and- "The Great Global Warming Swindle"

On Apr 22, 7:26 am, RHF wrote:
On Apr 21, 1:59 pm, wrote:



http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=11


Numerous myths regarding the so-called "hockey stick" reconstruction
of past temperatures, can be found on various non-peer reviewed
websites, internet newsgroups and other non-scientific venues. The
most widespread of these myths are debunked below:


MYTH #0: Evidence for modern human influence on climate rests entirely
upon the "Hockey Stick" Reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere mean
temperatures indicating anomalous late 20th century warmth.


This peculiar suggestion is sometimes found in op-ed pieces and other
dubious propaganda, despite its transparant absurdity. Paleoclimate
evidence is simply one in a number of independent lines of evidence
indicating the strong likelihood that human influences on climate play
a dominant role in the observed 20th century warming of the earth's
surface. Perhaps the strongest piece of evidence in support of this
conclusion is the evidence from so-called "Detection and Attribution
Studies". Such studies demonstrate that the pattern of 20th century
climate change closely matches that predicted by state-of-the-art
models of the climate system in response to 20th century anthropogenic
forcing (due to the combined influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations and industrial aerosol increases).


MYTH #1: The "Hockey Stick" Reconstruction is based solely on two
publications by climate scientist Michael Mann and colleagues (Mann et
al, 1998;1999).


This is patently false. Nearly a dozen model-based and proxy-based
reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature by different
groups all suggest that late 20th century warmth is anomalous in a
long-term (multi-century to millennial) context (see Figures 1 and 2
in "Temperature Variations in Past Centuries and The So-Called 'Hockey
Stick'").


Some proxy-based reconstructions suggest greater variability than
others. This greater variability may be attributable to different
emphases in seasonal and spatial emphasis (see Jones and Mann, 2004;
Rutherford et al, 2004; Cook et al, 2004). However, even for those
reconstructions which suggest a colder "Little Ice Age" and greater
variability in general in past centuries, such as that of Esper et al
(2002), late 20th century hemispheric warmth is still found to be
anomalous in the context of the reconstruction (see Cook et al, 2004).


( more available in the link posted above )



  #9   Report Post  
Old April 22nd 07, 09:20 PM posted to rec.radio.shortwave
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Posts: 24
Default ( OT) Myth vs. Fact Regarding the "Hockey Stick"


"RHF" wrote in message
oups.com...
On Apr 21, 6:59 pm, Cato wrote:
http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/highlights/2...rth_recovering...

LOADS OF TRIVIA SNIPPED

Let Hear It For The :

hockey stick,

Hockey Stick.

HOCKEY STICK !

and that's my global warming 'schtick' for the day ~ RHF

Readers will be fascinated to learn that the
"hockey stick" and the "umbrella" were
devices used during WW2 to clear out
the clogged chanel of a venereally-diseased
penis . miki..
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Old April 23rd 07, 12:39 AM posted to rec.radio.shortwave
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First recorded activity by RadioBanter: Oct 2006
Posts: 24
Default ( OT) Myth vs. Fact Regarding the "Hockey Stick"


"miki" wrote in message
...

"RHF" wrote in message
oups.com...
On Apr 21, 6:59 pm, Cato wrote:
http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/highlights/2...rth_recovering...

LOADS OF TRIVIA SNIPPED

Let Hear It For The :

hockey stick,

Hockey Stick.

HOCKEY STICK !

and that's my global warming 'schtick' for the day ~ RHF

Readers will be fascinated to learn that the
"hockey stick" and the "umbrella" were
devices used during WW2 to clear out
the clogged chanel of a venereally-diseased
penis . miki..


. P.S. : Make that "channel".... my bad. miki.
.. .



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