Scientists predict rare 'hibernation' of sunspots
AFP



Scientists predict rare hibernation of sunspots AFP/File

by Kerry Sheridan – Tue Jun 14, 5:38 pm ET

WASHINGTON (AFP) – For years, scientists have been predicting the
Sun would by around 2012 move into solar maximum, a period of
intense flares and sunspot activity, but lately a curious calm has
suggested quite the opposite.

According to three studies released in the United States on Tuesday,
experts believe the familiar sunspot cycle may be shutting down and
heading toward a pattern of inactivity unseen since the 17th century.

The signs include a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower
activity near the poles, said experts from the National Solar
Observatory and Air Force Research Laboratory.

"This is highly unusual and unexpected," said Frank Hill, associate
director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, as the findings of the
three studies were presented at the annual meeting of the American
Astronomical Society's Solar Physics Division in Las Cruces, New Mexico.

"But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point
in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle
may be going into hibernation."

Solar activity tends to rise and fall every 11 years or so. The
solar maximum and solar minimum each mark about half the interval of
the magnetic pole reversal on the Sun, which happens every 22 years.

Hill said the current cycle, number 24, "may be the last normal one
for some time and the next one, cycle 25, may not happen for some time.

"This is important because the solar cycle causes space weather
which affects modern technology and may contribute to climate
change," he told reporters.

Experts are now probing whether this period of inactivity could be a
second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period when hardly any
sunspots were observed between 1645-1715, a period known as the
"Little Ice Age."

"If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we'll see for
a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration
to Earth's climate," said Hill.

Solar flares and eruptions can send highly charged particles
hurtling toward Earth and interfere with satellite communications,
GPS systems and even airline controls.

Geomagnetic forces have been known to occasionally garble the
world's modern gadgetry, and warnings were issued as recently as
last week when a moderate solar flare sent a coronal mass ejection
in the Earth's direction.

The temperature change associated with any reduction in sunspot
activity would likely be minimal and may not be enough to offset the
impact of greenhouse gases on global warming, according to
scientists who have published recent papers on the topic.

"Recent solar 11-year cycles are associated empirically with changes
in global surface temperature of 0.1 Celsius," said Judith Lean, a
solar physicist with the US Naval Research Laboratory.

If the cycle were to stop or slow down, the small fluctuation in
temperature would do the same, eliminating the slightly cooler
effect of a solar minimum compared to the warmer solar maximum. The
phenomenon was witnessed during the descending phase of the last
solar cycle.

This "cancelled part of the greenhouse gas warming of the period
2000-2008, causing the net global surface temperature to remain
approximately flat -- and leading to the big debate of why the Earth
hadn't (been) warming in the past decade," Lean, who was not
involved in the three studies presented, said in an email to AFP.

A study in the March 2010 issue of Geophysical Research Letters
explored what effect an extended solar minimum might have, and found
no more than a 0.3 Celsius dip by 2100 compared to normal solar
fluctuations.

"A new Maunder-type solar activity minimum cannot offset the global
warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions," wrote authors
Georg Feulner and Stefan Rahmstorf, noting that forecasts by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have found a range of 3.7
Celsius to 4.5 Celsius rise by this century's end compared to the
latter half of the 20th century.

"Moreover, any offset of global warming due to a grand minimum of
solar activity would be merely a temporary effect, since the
distinct solar minima during the last millennium typically lasted
for only several decades or a century at most."

On Jun 15, 12:06*am, "D. Peter Maus" wrote:
Scientists predict rare 'hibernation' of sunspots
AFP

Scientists predict rare hibernation of sunspots AFP/File

by Kerry Sheridan Tue Jun 14, 5:38 pm ET

WASHINGTON (AFP) For years, scientists have been predicting the
Sun would by around 2012 move into solar maximum, a period of
intense flares and sunspot activity, but lately a curious calm has
suggested quite the opposite.

According to three studies released in the United States on Tuesday,
experts believe the familiar sunspot cycle may be shutting down and
heading toward a pattern of inactivity unseen since the 17th century.

The signs include a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower
activity near the poles, said experts from the National Solar
Observatory and Air Force Research Laboratory.

"This is highly unusual and unexpected," said Frank Hill, associate
director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, as the findings of the
three studies were presented at the annual meeting of the American
Astronomical Society's Solar Physics Division in Las Cruces, New Mexico.

"But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point
in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle
may be going into hibernation."

Solar activity tends to rise and fall every 11 years or so. The
solar maximum and solar minimum each mark about half the interval of
the magnetic pole reversal on the Sun, which happens every 22 years.

Hill said the current cycle, number 24, "may be the last normal one
for some time and the next one, cycle 25, may not happen for some time.

"This is important because the solar cycle causes space weather
which affects modern technology and may contribute to climate
change," he told reporters.

Experts are now probing whether this period of inactivity could be a
second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period when hardly any
sunspots were observed between 1645-1715, a period known as the
"Little Ice Age."

"If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we'll see for
a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration
to Earth's climate," said Hill.

Solar flares and eruptions can send highly charged particles
hurtling toward Earth and interfere with satellite communications,
GPS systems and even airline controls.

Geomagnetic forces have been known to occasionally garble the
world's modern gadgetry, and warnings were issued as recently as
last week when a moderate solar flare sent a coronal mass ejection
in the Earth's direction.

The temperature change associated with any reduction in sunspot
activity would likely be minimal and may not be enough to offset the
impact of greenhouse gases on global warming, according to
scientists who have published recent papers on the topic.

"Recent solar 11-year cycles are associated empirically with changes
in global surface temperature of 0.1 Celsius," said Judith Lean, a
solar physicist with the US Naval Research Laboratory.

If the cycle were to stop or slow down, the small fluctuation in
temperature would do the same, eliminating the slightly cooler
effect of a solar minimum compared to the warmer solar maximum. The
phenomenon was witnessed during the descending phase of the last
solar cycle.

This "cancelled part of the greenhouse gas warming of the period
2000-2008, causing the net global surface temperature to remain
approximately flat -- and leading to the big debate of why the Earth
hadn't (been) warming in the past decade," Lean, who was not
involved in the three studies presented, said in an email to AFP.

A study in the March 2010 issue of Geophysical Research Letters
explored what effect an extended solar minimum might have, and found
no more than a 0.3 Celsius dip by 2100 compared to normal solar
fluctuations.

"A new Maunder-type solar activity minimum cannot offset the global
warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions," wrote authors
Georg Feulner and Stefan Rahmstorf, noting that forecasts by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have found a range of 3.7
Celsius to 4.5 Celsius rise by this century's end compared to the
latter half of the 20th century.

"Moreover, any offset of global warming due to a grand minimum of
solar activity would be merely a temporary effect, since the
distinct solar minima during the last millennium typically lasted
for only several decades or a century at most."

Judging from the last two winter seasons this may be true . The Little
Ice Age is almost here . Has anyone seen or heard of Al Gore lately ?

On 6/15/11 24:45 , wrote:
On Jun 15, 12:06 am, "D. Peter wrote:
Scientists predict rare 'hibernation' of sunspots
AFP

Scientists predict rare hibernation of sunspots AFP/File

by Kerry Sheridan Tue Jun 14, 5:38 pm ET

WASHINGTON (AFP) For years, scientists have been predicting the
Sun would by around 2012 move into solar maximum, a period of
intense flares and sunspot activity, but lately a curious calm has
suggested quite the opposite.

According to three studies released in the United States on Tuesday,
experts believe the familiar sunspot cycle may be shutting down and
heading toward a pattern of inactivity unseen since the 17th century.

The signs include a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower
activity near the poles, said experts from the National Solar
Observatory and Air Force Research Laboratory.

"This is highly unusual and unexpected," said Frank Hill, associate
director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, as the findings of the
three studies were presented at the annual meeting of the American
Astronomical Society's Solar Physics Division in Las Cruces, New Mexico.

"But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point
in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle
may be going into hibernation."

Solar activity tends to rise and fall every 11 years or so. The
solar maximum and solar minimum each mark about half the interval of
the magnetic pole reversal on the Sun, which happens every 22 years.

Hill said the current cycle, number 24, "may be the last normal one
for some time and the next one, cycle 25, may not happen for some time.

"This is important because the solar cycle causes space weather
which affects modern technology and may contribute to climate
change," he told reporters.

Experts are now probing whether this period of inactivity could be a
second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period when hardly any
sunspots were observed between 1645-1715, a period known as the
"Little Ice Age."

"If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we'll see for
a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration
to Earth's climate," said Hill.

Solar flares and eruptions can send highly charged particles
hurtling toward Earth and interfere with satellite communications,
GPS systems and even airline controls.

Geomagnetic forces have been known to occasionally garble the
world's modern gadgetry, and warnings were issued as recently as
last week when a moderate solar flare sent a coronal mass ejection
in the Earth's direction.

The temperature change associated with any reduction in sunspot
activity would likely be minimal and may not be enough to offset the
impact of greenhouse gases on global warming, according to
scientists who have published recent papers on the topic.

"Recent solar 11-year cycles are associated empirically with changes
in global surface temperature of 0.1 Celsius," said Judith Lean, a
solar physicist with the US Naval Research Laboratory.

If the cycle were to stop or slow down, the small fluctuation in
temperature would do the same, eliminating the slightly cooler
effect of a solar minimum compared to the warmer solar maximum. The
phenomenon was witnessed during the descending phase of the last
solar cycle.

This "cancelled part of the greenhouse gas warming of the period
2000-2008, causing the net global surface temperature to remain
approximately flat -- and leading to the big debate of why the Earth
hadn't (been) warming in the past decade," Lean, who was not
involved in the three studies presented, said in an email to AFP.

A study in the March 2010 issue of Geophysical Research Letters
explored what effect an extended solar minimum might have, and found
no more than a 0.3 Celsius dip by 2100 compared to normal solar
fluctuations.

"A new Maunder-type solar activity minimum cannot offset the global
warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions," wrote authors
Georg Feulner and Stefan Rahmstorf, noting that forecasts by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have found a range of 3.7
Celsius to 4.5 Celsius rise by this century's end compared to the
latter half of the 20th century.

"Moreover, any offset of global warming due to a grand minimum of
solar activity would be merely a temporary effect, since the
distinct solar minima during the last millennium typically lasted
for only several decades or a century at most."

Judging from the last two winter seasons this may be true . The Little
Ice Age is almost here . Has anyone seen or heard of Al Gore lately ?


He's ice skating with Lucifer.

On Jun 14, 10:45*pm, wrote:
On Jun 15, 12:06*am, "D. Peter Maus" wrote:









Scientists predict rare 'hibernation' of sunspots
AFP

Scientists predict rare hibernation of sunspots AFP/File

by Kerry Sheridan Tue Jun 14, 5:38 pm ET

WASHINGTON (AFP) For years, scientists have been predicting the
Sun would by around 2012 move into solar maximum, a period of
intense flares and sunspot activity, but lately a curious calm has
suggested quite the opposite.

According to three studies released in the United States on Tuesday,
experts believe the familiar sunspot cycle may be shutting down and
heading toward a pattern of inactivity unseen since the 17th century.

The signs include a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower
activity near the poles, said experts from the National Solar
Observatory and Air Force Research Laboratory.

"This is highly unusual and unexpected," said Frank Hill, associate
director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, as the findings of the
three studies were presented at the annual meeting of the American
Astronomical Society's Solar Physics Division in Las Cruces, New Mexico..

"But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point
in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle
may be going into hibernation."

Solar activity tends to rise and fall every 11 years or so. The
solar maximum and solar minimum each mark about half the interval of
the magnetic pole reversal on the Sun, which happens every 22 years.

Hill said the current cycle, number 24, "may be the last normal one
for some time and the next one, cycle 25, may not happen for some time.

"This is important because the solar cycle causes space weather
which affects modern technology and may contribute to climate
change," he told reporters.

Experts are now probing whether this period of inactivity could be a
second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period when hardly any
sunspots were observed between 1645-1715, a period known as the
"Little Ice Age."

"If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we'll see for
a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration
to Earth's climate," said Hill.

Solar flares and eruptions can send highly charged particles
hurtling toward Earth and interfere with satellite communications,
GPS systems and even airline controls.

Geomagnetic forces have been known to occasionally garble the
world's modern gadgetry, and warnings were issued as recently as
last week when a moderate solar flare sent a coronal mass ejection
in the Earth's direction.

The temperature change associated with any reduction in sunspot
activity would likely be minimal and may not be enough to offset the
impact of greenhouse gases on global warming, according to
scientists who have published recent papers on the topic.

"Recent solar 11-year cycles are associated empirically with changes
in global surface temperature of 0.1 Celsius," said Judith Lean, a
solar physicist with the US Naval Research Laboratory.

If the cycle were to stop or slow down, the small fluctuation in
temperature would do the same, eliminating the slightly cooler
effect of a solar minimum compared to the warmer solar maximum. The
phenomenon was witnessed during the descending phase of the last
solar cycle.

This "cancelled part of the greenhouse gas warming of the period
2000-2008, causing the net global surface temperature to remain
approximately flat -- and leading to the big debate of why the Earth
hadn't (been) warming in the past decade," Lean, who was not
involved in the three studies presented, said in an email to AFP.

A study in the March 2010 issue of Geophysical Research Letters
explored what effect an extended solar minimum might have, and found
no more than a 0.3 Celsius dip by 2100 compared to normal solar
fluctuations.

"A new Maunder-type solar activity minimum cannot offset the global
warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions," wrote authors
Georg Feulner and Stefan Rahmstorf, noting that forecasts by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have found a range of 3.7
Celsius to 4.5 Celsius rise by this century's end compared to the
latter half of the 20th century.

"Moreover, any offset of global warming due to a grand minimum of
solar activity would be merely a temporary effect, since the
distinct solar minima during the last millennium typically lasted
for only several decades or a century at most."

Judging from the last two winter seasons this may be true .

- The Little Ice Age is almost here .
- Has anyone seen or heard of Al Gore lately ?

You mean Al 'Icicle' Gore the Billionaire
Liberal Democrat Profiteer of Global Warming...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/ene...llionaire.html
* Carbon Credit Cash Goes To Al Gore
{Liberal Democrat} While Your Family Freezes
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/ene...llionaire.html

-cash-it-out-gore- -gore-us-some-more- ~ RHF

Very Interesting!


--
Burr
From The Gardens
Roses & Orchids
Guiguinto, Bulacan. Philippines
http://www.guiguinto.gov.ph/
And Red Mountain, Ca. USA
I’m a member of The Tea Party, I VOTE


"D. Peter Maus" wrote in message
...
Scientists predict rare 'hibernation' of sunspots
AFP



Scientists predict rare hibernation of sunspots AFP/File

by Kerry Sheridan – Tue Jun 14, 5:38 pm ET

WASHINGTON (AFP) – For years, scientists have been predicting the Sun
would by around 2012 move into solar maximum, a period of intense flares
and sunspot activity, but lately a curious calm has suggested quite the
opposite.

According to three studies released in the United States on Tuesday,
experts believe the familiar sunspot cycle may be shutting down and
heading toward a pattern of inactivity unseen since the 17th century.

The signs include a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity
near the poles, said experts from the National Solar Observatory and Air
Force Research Laboratory.

"This is highly unusual and unexpected," said Frank Hill, associate
director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, as the findings of the three
studies were presented at the annual meeting of the American Astronomical
Society's Solar Physics Division in Las Cruces, New Mexico.

"But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in
the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be
going into hibernation."

Solar activity tends to rise and fall every 11 years or so. The solar
maximum and solar minimum each mark about half the interval of the
magnetic pole reversal on the Sun, which happens every 22 years.

Hill said the current cycle, number 24, "may be the last normal one for
some time and the next one, cycle 25, may not happen for some time.

"This is important because the solar cycle causes space weather which
affects modern technology and may contribute to climate change," he told
reporters.

Experts are now probing whether this period of inactivity could be a
second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period when hardly any
sunspots were observed between 1645-1715, a period known as the "Little
Ice Age."

"If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we'll see for a few
decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth's
climate," said Hill.

Solar flares and eruptions can send highly charged particles hurtling
toward Earth and interfere with satellite communications, GPS systems and
even airline controls.

Geomagnetic forces have been known to occasionally garble the world's
modern gadgetry, and warnings were issued as recently as last week when a
moderate solar flare sent a coronal mass ejection in the Earth's
direction.

The temperature change associated with any reduction in sunspot activity
would likely be minimal and may not be enough to offset the impact of
greenhouse gases on global warming, according to scientists who have
published recent papers on the topic.

"Recent solar 11-year cycles are associated empirically with changes in
global surface temperature of 0.1 Celsius," said Judith Lean, a solar
physicist with the US Naval Research Laboratory.

If the cycle were to stop or slow down, the small fluctuation in
temperature would do the same, eliminating the slightly cooler effect of a
solar minimum compared to the warmer solar maximum. The phenomenon was
witnessed during the descending phase of the last solar cycle.

This "cancelled part of the greenhouse gas warming of the period
2000-2008, causing the net global surface temperature to remain
approximately flat -- and leading to the big debate of why the Earth
hadn't (been) warming in the past decade," Lean, who was not involved in
the three studies presented, said in an email to AFP.

A study in the March 2010 issue of Geophysical Research Letters explored
what effect an extended solar minimum might have, and found no more than a
0.3 Celsius dip by 2100 compared to normal solar fluctuations.

"A new Maunder-type solar activity minimum cannot offset the global
warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions," wrote authors Georg
Feulner and Stefan Rahmstorf, noting that forecasts by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have found a range of 3.7
Celsius to 4.5 Celsius rise by this century's end compared to the latter
half of the 20th century.

"Moreover, any offset of global warming due to a grand minimum of solar
activity would be merely a temporary effect, since the distinct solar
minima during the last millennium typically lasted for only several
decades or a century at most."

I think he has been out partying after the devorce. Good Time Al.

Two nice storms coming in this week.
--
Burr
From The Gardens
Roses & Orchids
Guiguinto, Bulacan. Philippines
http://www.guiguinto.gov.ph/
And Red Mountain, Ca. USA
I'm a member of The Tea Party, I VOTE
wrote in message news:8d199434-3252-4042-9ccb-

Has anyone seen or heard of Al Gore lately ?

On 06/14/2011 10:45 PM, wrote:

"Moreover, any offset of global warming due to a grand minimum of
solar activity would be merely a temporary effect, since the
distinct solar minima during the last millennium typically lasted
for only several decades or a century at most."

Judging from the last two winter seasons this may be true . The Little
Ice Age is almost here . Has anyone seen or heard of Al Gore lately ?

There will be no little Ice Age. The earth is hotter than it has ever
been with people on it, and that will continue. The magnetic collapse in
the sun will not be enough to balance out our trashing of the
atmosphere. There were 1/6 as many people in the 17th century.

On 06/15/2011 01:13 AM, D. Peter Maus wrote:
On 6/15/11 24:45 , wrote:



The article refers to an 8 year period, which shows stupidity. When
discussing climate a 30 year window is the minimum accepted time frame.

The flat line from 2000-2008 is insignificant.

On 6/15/2011 5:52 AM, dave wrote:
On 06/14/2011 10:45 PM, wrote:

"Moreover, any offset of global warming due to a grand minimum of
solar activity would be merely a temporary effect, since the
distinct solar minima during the last millennium typically lasted
for only several decades or a century at most."

Judging from the last two winter seasons this may be true . The Little
Ice Age is almost here . Has anyone seen or heard of Al Gore lately ?

There will be no little Ice Age. The earth is hotter than it has ever
been with people on it, and that will continue. The magnetic collapse in
the sun will not be enough to balance out our trashing of the
atmosphere. There were 1/6 as many people in the 17th century.

That is surely it, just think of the heat gain which can be written off
to the dinosaurs in that time frame!

--

Regards,
JS
“The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain
the people, it’s an instrument for the people to restrain the
government.” -- Patrick Henry

On Jun 15, 8:52*am, dave wrote:
On 06/14/2011 10:45 PM, wrote:

"Moreover, any offset of global warming due to a grand minimum of
solar activity would be merely a temporary effect, since the
distinct solar minima during the last millennium typically lasted
for only several decades or a century at most."

Judging from the last two winter seasons this may be true . The Little
Ice Age is almost here . Has anyone seen or heard of Al Gore lately ?

There will be no little Ice Age. The earth is hotter than it has ever
been with people on it, and that will continue. The magnetic collapse in
the sun will not be enough to balance out our trashing of the
atmosphere. There were 1/6 as many people in the 17th century.

A) No man alive can foresee whether there will be or not a new Little
Ice Age . These observations take centuries to compile . B)
2000-3000-4000 years ago the weather in general was slightly warmer
(!) than today ,at least in the original Cradles of Civilization e.g.
the Mediterranean basin . D) Any physical event on the Sun always
had some impact upon the Earth, whether we like it or accept it or do
not . E) The fact that the total poulation is much higher today , than
in the 17th century is the proof that : human life longevity is much
greater due to the advances in science AND technology , wars were
implemented as a constant tool of resolving nearly ANY minor
differences , the famines of the past were MUCH greater and longer
than we can imagine . On the subject of wars , for instance , the
Thirty Years War in Europe wiped out entire regions , some areas lost
50% of the population or more . Talk about the 'good old days' . . .