:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Mar 21 0054 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
14 - 20 March 2016

Solar activity ranged from very low to low levels during the period.
Low levels were observed on 15, 16 and 19 March due to isolated,
weak C-class flares from Regions 2521 (N19, L=029, class/area
Dao/080 on 14 Mar) and 2522 (N14, L=078, class/area Cao/040 on 15
Mar). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed in
coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels on 14, 15 and 19 March and high levels on 16-18 and
20 March.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels
(G1-minor). The period began with quiet conditions, but increased to
unsettled to minor storm levels late on 14 March due to the onset of
a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) in advance of a coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS) that originated from a negative extension
off of the southern crown. With the CIR, wind speeds rapidly
increased from about 360 km/s to near 565 km/s by late on the 14th.
The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) responded with total field
(Bt) readings of 23 nT while the Bz component rotated between +18 nT
to - 19 nT.

Geomagnetic field conditions remained elevated through 18 March with
quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind conditions also remained
enhanced with wind speeds that approached 600 km/s midday on the
17th. Bt and Bz relaxed by early on 15 March with Bt fairly steady
at 10 nT with Bz varying between +/- 8 nT. 18 and 19 March saw quiet
to active levels due to prolonged periods of southward Bz. During
this time frame, wind speeds averaged about 425 km/s.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
21 March - 16 April 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance
for C-class activity throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be high levels on 21-22 March, 04-06 April and 12-16
April. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of
the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G2-moderate storm
levels on 02 April with G1-minor storm levels expected on 03, 11-13
April due to the influence of recurrent, negative polarity CH HSSs.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of the
outlook period under a nominal solar wind regime.