:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Nov 28 0341 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
21 - 27 November 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest flare of the
period was at B6 at 22/0010 UTC from Region 2612 (N09, L=194,
class/area Hax/230 on 25 November). No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
moderate levels on 22-24 November while high levels were reached on
21 and 25-27 November. The largest flux of the period was 25,245 pfu
at 27/1625 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storm conditions. Enhanced geomagnetic activity was due
to recurrent, positive-polarity, coronal hole high speed streams (CH
HSS). The period began with solar wind speeds near 330 km/s on 21
November with an increasing total field from approximately 1 nT
early in the period to near 12 nT by 22 November and a fluctuating
Bz component between +10 nT and -8 nT. Solar wind speed increased,
thereafter, to near 510 km/s by 23 November while total field
decreased to near 3 nT. Another enhancement in total field was
observed late on 23 November to a maximum near 11 nT on 24 November
before decreasing to 5 nT by 25 November. Stepped increases in solar
wind speed occurred at 24/0514 UTC from 400 km/s to 500 km/s and at
25/0144 UTC from 500 km/s to near 700 km/s. The geomagnetic field
responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 21 November, quiet to
active levels on 22-23 November, unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 24 November, unsettled to G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 25
November and quiet to unsettled levels on 26-27 November.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
28 November - 24 December 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight
chance for C-class flares for the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely
on 28 November-07 December, 10-18 December and again on 22-24
December due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels on 28-30 November as the geomagnetic field recovers from
positive polarity CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are
expected from 07-11 December and 19-24 December with G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels likely on 10 and 21-22 December due to
recurrent CH HSS effects.