:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Apr 03 0655 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 March - 02 April 2017

Solar activity ranged from very low to high during the period due to
multiple M-class flares from Region 2644 (N12, L=57, class/area,
Fkc/450 on 02 April). The first was an M4/1f flare at 01/2148 UTC
with an associated Type IV radio sweep. The second M-flare was an
M5/2n at 02/0802 UTC with associated Type II (628 km/s) and Type IV
radio sweeps. This was followed by an M2 flare at 02/1300 UTC with
an associated weak Tenflare (110 sfu). A long duration M2/Sf flare
was produced at 02/1838 UTC. Finally, the region produced an
impulsive M5 flare at 02/2033 UTC with associated multi-frequency
discrete radio emissions. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to high levels on 27 March - 01 April and reached very high
levels on 02 April. The largest flux of the period was 62,136 pfu
observed at 02/1525 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm
conditions under the influence of a recurrent, polar connected,
negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The
period began under a nominal solar wind environment before quickly
becoming enhanced. Total field increased to a maximum of 19 nT at
27/0752 UTC while the Bz component deflected southward to -14 nT at
27/0827 UTC. Solar wind speeds started the period near 375 km/s and
peaked to a maximum speed of 781 km/s at 28/0711 UTC. The
geomagnetic field responded with G2 (Moderate) storm conditions on
27 March, G1 (Minor) levels on 28, 30-31 March, and quiet to active
conditions on 29 March, 01-02 April.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
03 April - 29 April 2017

Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong
or greater) on 03-04 April due to flare potential in Region 2644. On
05-07 Apr, activity levels will decrease to a chance for moderate
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares with a slight chance for X-class
flares (R3-Strong or greater) due to potential in Region 2645.

There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm
from 03-08 April due to the threat of significant flare activity
from both Regions 2644 and 2645 (S10, L=18, class/area Ehc/600 on 02
April).

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely
from 03-11, 18-28 April and very high levels likely on 29 April due
to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 03-04, 17-19, and 23-29 April with G1 (Minor) storm levels
likely on 17, 23-27 April and G2 (Moderate) storm levels likely on
23 April due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Quiet conditions are
expected for the remainder of the period.