SEATTLE, WA, Feb 24,
2006--More zeroes! A string of
zero-sunspot days reappeared
this week--a pattern we'll likely
see repeated over the next year,
but for longer periods. Average
daily sunspot numbers
compared to last week dropped
by nearly two points to 7.1. On
February 20 and 21 a gust of
solar wind hit Earth, causing a
moderate rise in geomagnetic
indices and visible aurora way
up north (see photo). A small
coronal hole on our sun's
equator was the source.

Over the next week don't expect sunspot numbers to rise. You can
take a look at recent Daily Solar Data numbers, updated daily, on
the Space Environment Center Web site, which also includes a
rundown of geomagnetic indicators. A solar wind from a coronal
hole is expected to cause unsettled conditions for Friday and
Saturday, February 24-25. Geophysical Institute Prague expects
unsettled conditions for February 24, quiet to unsettled on
February 25, quiet February 26-27, and quiet to unsettled on
February 28-March 2.

We receive a steady stream of mail inquiring about the magnitude of the next
solar cycle and the
end of this one. Steve Stutman, KL7JT/1, in the Boston area said he'd heard that
the rise of the
next solar cycle should be modest. I poked around, and found an interesting link
for solar cycle
24. With 23 recorded sunspot cycles, there isn't a huge amount of data to
analyze, so as you
can see on this site, various approaches are put forth that the users believe
have worked in the
past. I think most of us would prefer Hathaway's prediction, which is the first
one listed under
"Predictions of Cycle 24." We would prefer it, because it is the most
optimistic.

Don't miss this graphical presentation on the SEC site of data from the current
Cycle 23, as well
as a nice visualization of all recorded solar cycles on the WM7D site. You can
see from these
graphs why Cycle 19 in the late 1950s is recalled with such fondness. I became
interested in
ham radio as a young boy in 1963, got my license in 1965, and not only was solar
activity low
during the mid-1960s, but Cycle 20, which peaked in the late 1960s, was a real
stinker in
comparison to the recent one. Of course all of the older hams--just about
everyone, since I was
12 at the time--had experienced Cycle 19, and I hadn't.

My only recollection of Cycle 19 was as a small boy in Reedley, California. My
father, a
biologist, was taking a few years off to earn money for school selling
insecticide to farmers
before returning to Berkeley for his PhD. My dad had a company car, with a long
whip antenna
on the back connected to a low-VHF business-band FM two-way radio (probably
30-40 MHz). I
recall his talking about being unable to raise the head office in Fresno, but
someone in Texas
was able to relay for him, and something about sunspots. Around that time hams
were living it
up on 10-meter AM, working the world with low power.

We don't have many sunspots now, so the MUF (maximum usable frequency) tends to
stay low.
But we do have quiet conditions, and the CQ 160-Meter SSB contest this weekend
isn't
bothered by low MUF.

Finally, Cap Cox, W4AMW, of Owensboro, Kentucky, writes about the CW portion of
the ARRL
International DX Contest, which took place last weekend, and about conditions in
general:

"Saturday morning around 1000-1200Z I worked Japan, Russia, Western Europe and
could
hear VT and CO all about the same time on 40 meters. That night I worked Japan
and
Switzerland on 80. Sunday during the day 20 was open into Europe and Africa all
day and even
10 meters lit up into Central and South America in the early afternoon. I'm
running a hundred
watts into a Windom. I kept looking at my calendar to make sure it wasn't 2013
already. Wow!

"I guess it helps to have a couple of thousand operators on all the HF
frequencies pushing the
ethereal envelope in order to know what conditions are really like under the
circumstances. I can
get by with 'poor' bottom of the cycle conditions like these for a long time,
maybe even until the
next 'peak' arrives."

For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers
used in this
bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service Propagation page. An archive
of past
bulletins is on the ARRL Web site.

Sunspot numbers for February 16 through 22 were 27, 23, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0, with a
mean of 7.1.
10.7 cm flux was 79.2, 79.2, 78.5, 76.5, 76.2, 75.9, and 76, with a mean of
77.4. Estimated
planetary A indices were 8, 4, 2, 6, 20, 17 and 12, with a mean of 9.9.
Estimated mid-latitude A
indices were 7, 2, 2, 5, 9, 15 and 11, with a mean of 7.3.
(K7RA, ARRL)

dxAce
Michigan
USA