The K7RA Solar Update

SEATTLE, WA, Mar 10, 2006--A big news story this week (big to
us, anyway) generated more email than I've ever received. If you
were one of the kind folks who sent in an alert about a new
prediction for sunspot cycle 24, I'm sorry that I couldn't get back to
everyone.

A new computer model of solar dynamics produced by scientists at
the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) predicts the
next solar cycle to begin a bit later than had been thought, but to
rise much higher,--perhaps by as much as 30 to 50 percent--than
the current solar cycle just ending. The model claims to predict
cycles 16-23 with 97 percent accuracy using earlier data. For those
yearning for another Cycle 19 of the 1950s--one that I missed--50
percent higher would just about get us there!

The NCAR news page has a report. So does the NASA Web site.
Another article from Science@NASA claims the Cycle 23 solar
minimum is already here--or at least the beginning of it. Thanks to
the multitude of hams who wrote regarding this prediction for the
next solar cycle.

As for current propagation, solar activity remains low, with many
recent days of zero sunspots and even more ahead. The vernal
equinox (ie, spring) is only a couple of weeks away. This is a good
time for HF propagation, even with few sunspots, as the Southern
and Northern hemispheres are equally bathed in the sun's radiation. Friday,
March 10 could
have unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions, with unsettled conditions on
Saturday, quiet to
unsettled on Sunday, and quiet on Monday, March 13.

Bob Poortinga, K9SQL, of Bloomington, Indiana, writes about his experience on 15
meters last
week during the ARRL International DX Contest (SSB). He ran 100 W into a wire
antenna--he
wasn't specific--and worked 44 countries.

He reports: "Highlights included 2 JAs (heard two others), Tonga, Ascension
Island, and three
KH6s. Also heard, but did not work, VK6NS and a ZL1 station. Had lots of QSOs to
South
America, mostly Argentina and Brazil. The Pacific opening lasted about two
hours, occurring
about 2130-2330 UTC Sunday. The three KH6s were worked within 15 minutes of each
other,
and I did not hear them again".

Bob likes the BeaconSee software for monitoring NCDXF/IARU beacons. "I can't say
enough
about this program," he says. Check it out!

Mark Schreiner, NK8Q, of Allentown, Pennsylvania, wrote to say how much fun he
is having at
the bottom of the cycle running QRP, and how great the lower part of the HF
spectrum is with so
little solar activity.

"About 1-1/2 hours after local sunrise I heard 3D2NB on 40 meters on March 3,
and once I
figured out the QSX, I worked him within a matter of a couple of calls. I was
amazed to hear a
station at such great distance so late after local sunrise! I had worked a Fiji
Islands station who
was barely copiable by me (so I can't imagine how my signal was for him unless
his antenna
was something special) early last summer at about 5 AM during the peak of gray
line, just before
my local sunrise, but to work this station so late after sunrise and with at
least an S5 to S7
signal strength at my end, I thought was absolutely amazing!"

Warren Ziegler, K2ORS, now has the call sign once held by broadcaster Jean
Shepard. As
WD2XGJ, Warren experiments with longwave transmissions on 137.8 KHz. Look at the
cool
stone tower where he operates his station. The site has other photos and
information about his
VLF equipment.

For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers
used in this
bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service Propagation page. An archive
of past
bulletins is on the ARRL Web site.

Sunspot numbers for March 2 through March 8 were 0, 0, 13, 28, 27, 25 and 24,
with a mean of
16.7. 10.7 cm flux was 76.1, 75.5, 75, 74.2, 73.6, 74.4, and 72.4, with a mean
of 74.5. Estimated
planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 2, 8, 12 and 4, with a mean of 5.3. Estimated
mid-latitude A
indices were 4, 2, 1, 1, 8, 6 and 3, with a mean of 3.6.
(K7RA, ARRL)

dxAce
Michigan
USA